NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 just nam being nam? or maybe onto something hmmmm its called High Latitude Blocking - storm will be forced further east then currently progged - lets see if the EURO starts picking up on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0Z NAM is doing something different this run with the low center it starts going through Kentucky then shows up at hour 84 over Georgia It would cut somewhere between Central PA and Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It would cut somewhere between Central PA and ClevelandThis storm is like a pendulum. It swings back and forth between rain and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This storm is like a pendulum. It swings back and forth between rain and rain not on the west side - the folks in sections of the Ohio Valley are watching this storm very closely - some are going to be happy campers by Thursday and others very dissapointed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Just a little something to keep in the back of your mind...fwiw http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/ weds nite 7pm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/spag_f120_us.html thurs nite 7pm cold air transition on top of the metro http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/spag_f144_us.html most likely a bit late to matter but hey....we can still track it and learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 00z GFS is a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Ok, this gfs run has lowered my confidence level again it's shifted several hundred miles west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12k nam shows what 32k was trying to do,much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This storm had a surprise for us,but I still haven't figured out what yet. When does it cover on land ? Dude it's dead.. I'm like the eternal optimist, and I've given up... War/no block, no Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 2"+ of rain on the GFS and fairly strong winds. Good trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Dude it's dead.. I'm like the eternal optimist, and I've given up... War/no block, no BuenoSurprise as in, it's going go super west, or out to sea lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Cmc I do believe looks east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Cmc exits coast intoo ocean south of new Jersey... CORRECTION: goes over NYC same about she as last run. Gives good snows in central NY,kinda looks like Hudson valley but can't tell exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still no cutter shown on cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Cmc exits coast intoo ocean south of new Jersey... CORRECTION: goes over NYC same about she as last run. Gives good snows in central NY,kinda looks like Hudson valley but can't tell exactly. Can't make this stuff up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Can't make this stuff up... Yeah. Some say snow in Chicagoonly Chicago west, since say snow in NY. I'm going to bed its too annoying these models lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Oh Canada .....GEM snowfall just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 its called High Latitude Blocking - storm will be forced further east then currently progged - lets see if the EURO starts picking up on this Hopefully it goes near the benchmark ( weenie thinking ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I refuse to let the GGEM suck me back into this cruel game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Either way gefs are UGLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Either way gefs are UGLY2"+ of rain area wide. Looks great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 00z Euro tracks into W PA/NY. 2-3" of rain area wide. First system looks wetter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I hope we dry slot and see 0 rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYGiantsFan99 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 pardon me if im wrong on this but, with this type of setup being shown on the major global models, wouldnt this system favor setting up a squall line for the tristate area? im as bummed out about this storm as the next guy but a good replacement for a nice snowstorm (at least for me) is a wicked thunderstorm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 SREF has the 1st wave along the coast further north and west than 21z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_072_mslp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=mslp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160221+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area 2m temps look good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_072_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160221+03+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 How's the winds look for this storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Checkmate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I hope we dry slot and see 0 rain lol Yes that would be great also a nice warm dry spring and summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The heavy rain and strong winds threat looks legit wit the system. There is a direct tropical feed and near record PW's for late February. Anything approaching 1.50" is right around the highest ever observed this time of year. Rainfall rates are going to be very heavy at the peak. So totals will depend on which areas see the best training. The stronger cells could also mix down higher winds from above. Tropical moisture feed from the Western Caribbean near record levels for late February. GFS_3_2016022106_F102_PWATIN_SURFACE.png Every storm as of late featuring rain instead of snow, it looks these are springtime rains and ushering in a change of seasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Every storm as of late featuring rain instead of snow, it looks these are springtime rains and ushering in a change of seasons! You are correct, we are now transitioning from fall into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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