IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next weeks storm is done for the coast. The pattern looks to get favorable at the end of this month into at least the first half of March.This storm is so meh it can't even produce more then 1.50" of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This storm is so meh it can't even produce more then 1.50" of rain here. The further west it goes, the less rain we get. Maybe it can hit 60 over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Cmc is west,though only by 50-70 miles compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next weeks storm is done for the coast. The pattern looks to get favorable at the end of this month into at least the first half of March. That's what I was thinking. I had no hope for the coast with this and now even the interior is screwed. Last chance for a snow threat will be the first two weeks of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That's what I was thinking. I had no hope for the coast with this and now even the interior is screwed. Last chance for a snow threat will be the first two weeks of March. Agree 100 percent. I am usually last to throw in the towel with every storm but next weeks storm has a lot going against it. + NAO, +AO and +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS?no good big cutterSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 At least the GEFS mean is 1.75"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 WG I agree It's not that far out of reach yet for some good stuff for us Sorry man, not happening. Where'd you go during our historical event this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euros a good soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next weeks storm is done for the coast. The pattern looks to get favorable at the end of this month into at least the first half of March. Just 10 short days away as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Until I see some consistency, one or 2 model runs showing a general area of possible low, not hundreds or miles west or east of past run, I'm not believing anything. Jma, still has a good location, cmc didn't change much from last run also a decent location, nam, has been very consistent the couple runs that did show the storm so far. Geps,gefs, both have been around and about. All over the place. Navgem, has been pretty good. Cmc had been showing good storm got a bit. Some are west but it's still a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Agree, I don't see how anyone can feel certain of any particular solution atm. Several hundred mile shifts from run to run fail to inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 EPS tracks the low over central Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Eps, while it looks like a west trend, has also been east several times. However I do think it's getting a better idea. So I'll await for a few runs with less then 100-500 mile, give or take shifts with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam shows the starts of an inland cutter... If the nam sees what the GFS/euro/ and ensembles see at 84hr this things DOA... Onto the next threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam would most likely show what models were showing a few days ago, decent front end first wave dump, followed by cutter with rain... Nam will eventually wake up and come around to other guidance Edit: first wave dies off, not even a front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam shows the starts of an inland cutter... If the nam sees what the GFS/euro/ and ensembles see at 84hr this things DOA... Onto the next threatThe 850 mb low is way west of the surface low on the EPS, even areas well west of the metro would changeover with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The 850 mb low is way west of the surface low on the EPS, even areas well west of the metro would changeover with that track Doesn't matter, Let the "rain" lovers continue to track this one, it's over folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Doesn't matter, Let the "rain" lovers continue to track this one, it's over folksAt least the pattern looks like the best we've had all winter after this... I'd be surprised if we didn't have a few good threats through mid-March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Next weeks storm is done for the coast. The pattern looks to get favorable at the end of this month into at least the first half of March. Like I said in the other thread, this is rain, and maybe even not a lot depending on how far west this winds up. As far as favorable patterns I'm seeing 40's the end of the week which is the start of March basically. I live a good snow storm as much as the next guy but this is an indicator of things to come. This will likely wind up w the low tracking W of the Apps. Save for that random March snowfall I really fee the end of this "winter" is coming. And faster than most on here are willing to admit lol. Wouldn't be surprised if interior Jersey sees no snow with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Going to need the low to at least track just offshore to even get into the big rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 At least the pattern looks like the best we've had all winter after this... I'd be surprised if we didn't have a few good threats through mid-March. looks can be deceiving......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 how much rain does gfs show? is the low in detroit again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z gfs finally looks like a repeat run... finally done consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Navgem, jumped again but next run on a lot of things should make it official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 whats the nam showing? still a major cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 whats the nam showing? still a major cutter? Not gonna matter much. This is a rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 whats the nam showing? still a major cutter? 0Z NAM is doing something different this run with the low center it starts going through Kentucky then shows up at hour 84 over Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 just nam being nam? or maybe onto something hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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