UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 No clue what model this is, but it's cold and snowy so my inner weenie will post it Lp 850s 2mt All look good On whatever this is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Has anyone ever seen the GFS differ so drastically from the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Possible answer, the high or in Atlantic, looks further east and has 2 or 1. Second thing, there's now 1 or 2 Canadian highs just north of the great lakes. I haven't compared this to the gfs yet,but I'm pretty sure that might be why such a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 As I suspected, the highs on the gefs and gfs are different. No high that I can see north of great lakes and the 2 highs in Atlantic are in totally different places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 9:23 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Despite what the models are showing today, I'm just not buying the two wave solution. I think it'll consolidate into one. My gut tells me this will be a coastal hugger with a snow to rain outcome, but the weenie in me is still hoping for a colder solution. Two waves could happen but usually when that occurs the first one is very weak, if the first one is strong the second one almost never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Second, I have to say,the navgem, has been extremely consistent going back couple runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So apparently the FIM9 is an expiramental model (American) and idk how it's track record is so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Ironically, the navgem does make 2 lows, with low#2 looking like the beast. And its fairly slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 12:53 AM, wthrmn654 said: Ironically, the navgem does make 2 lows, with low#2 looking like the beast. And its fairly slow Navgem would be best case scenario imo, weaker initial wave, secondary wave that moves east off Carolinas or Ga, strengthens and comes up coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On second note, if the NavGEM is right the Sunday night event has no shot. Even adding its progressive bias it's not even close to anything and would suggest something between the Euro and GFS is right which would basically be a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 12:57 AM, SnowGoose69 said: On second note, if the NavGEM is right the Sunday night event has no shot. Even adding its progressive bias it's not even close to anything and would suggest something between the Euro and GFS is right which would basically be a non event To get a big storm, midweek.. I'll sacrifice Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:03 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: To get a big storm, midweek.. I'll sacrifice Sunday night From my understanding, you would be talking about a possible big storm west of I95 and north...the big cities would still mix, right? And that would be if everything works out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:14 AM, weatherpruf said: From my understanding, you would be talking about a possible big storm west of I95 and north...the big cities would still mix, right? And that would be if everything works out..... If I'm being honest.. Yes most likely, is it impossible for everyone to see snow, no but unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 The best case scenario at the coast is probably a few inches on the front end and then as it pulls away. The low is probably going to track right over us give or take 50-100 miles in either direction because that seems to be the consensus when you eliminate the windshield washing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gefs are split 50/50 7 coastal members, 8 inland memebrs, and 2 over KNYC. Exclude the extremes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:33 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs are split 50/50 7 coastal members, 8 inland memebrs, and 2 over KNYC. Exclude the extremes How reliable is navgem been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEPS say coastal, barely any inland members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:38 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GEPS say coastal, barely any inland members That's from 12z, when does it update next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Fwiw re:Sunday night, I think by the looks of things the 18z NAM started making a move towards the GFS/Euro. It is much faster moving the precip out, hardly even a noteworthy event on 18Z IMO. I expect 0z NAM to continue more of a subtle move towards the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:41 AM, wthrmn654 said: That's from 12z, when does it update next? It only runs 12/00z.... It's pretty long after the Gfs run comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 1:03 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: To get a big storm, midweek.. I'll sacrifice Sunday nightIts being sacrificed.....but how does this help midweek?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'll probably take crap for saying this but the nam at the end of its run, is going with the 2nd wave as our storm.. The initial is WAY south OTS, as the 2nd wave deepens down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nam has our low in Lousiana and high pressure to the north... Things could get interesting next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 2:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'll probably take crap for saying this but the nam at the end of its run, is going with the 2nd wave as our storm.. The initial is WAY south OTS, as the 2nd wave deepens down southIf the second wave can be delayed a bit, wouldn't that be a better shot for it to come East along the coast instead of cutting due to the AO value being lower? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 2:45 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'll probably take crap for saying this but the nam at the end of its run, is going with the 2nd wave as our storm.. The initial is WAY south OTS, as the 2nd wave deepens down south Also notice how the HP in southeast Canada is unable to move out through the end of the run - probably reacting to the blocking developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 2:51 AM, White Gorilla said: If the second wave can be delayed a bit, wouldn't that be a better shot for it to come East along the coast instead of cutting due to the AO value being lower? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk The nam shows a high just north of NNE, so i honestly dunno if a slower solution would matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 2:50 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam has our low in Lousiana and high pressure to the north... Things could get interesting next few days I know we're over analyzing the NAM, but it looks much weaker with the energy and it's further east with it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 On 2/20/2016 at 2:51 AM, NEG NAO said: Also notice how the HP in southeast Canada is unable to move out through the end of the run - probably reacting to the blocking developing That's what many mets have been referencing... I'd give kudos to Larry C, and Bernie R.. If it comes true lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 man, imagine the NAM nails this again with a completely different scenario than all of the globals, which have been completely out to lunch all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The evolution of so many players involved will sure be fascinating to see unfold regardless of whether we get a desired solution or not. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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