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Storm threat 2/22-2/25


IsentropicLift

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Mt. Holly

 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. QLCS POSSIBLE WITH WHAT I THINK IS ABOVE NORMAL SVR
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB 60-75KT NORTH TO SOUTH.
LOW TOPPED HIGH SHEAR WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J OF CAPE. IT LOOKS TO
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST TUESDAY THE 16TH. FOR SMALL
STREAM FLOODING TO OCCUR...HOURLY AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR 6 HR 1.5"
FOR THE REGION NW OF PHL THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND TTN AREA
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THAT MIGHT BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY DOWN
BASED ON WHAT EVER OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR NOW, JUST POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AND NO FLOOD WATCHES ATTM. GUSTY
SOUTH WIND TO 30 MPH AWAY FROM THE SHOWERS. 250 METER 12 HFC AXIS
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SHERB IS SIGNIFICANT
FOR WED NIGHT AND THE SPC SREF TOR PARAMETER IS INTERESTING IN ITS
DECAY CROSSING CHES BAY FROM EASTERN VA WED EVE. BOTTOM
LINE...DECAY OR NOT, IF WE DEVELOP A QLCS, ITS PROBABLY GOING TO
MEAN WIND DAMAGE IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE QUESTION, WILL A QLCS
DEVELOP? WE KNOW THE CAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE MODELED AS
AVAILABLE.

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