UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam looks to wanna change us back to snow and has a really decent thump... My guess is the nam is too cold and too wound up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 4K also say a general 1-3, with some spots seeing 4-5" My forecast has rain and snow likely tomorrow changing to rain tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Has the nam been crazy wrong often before? You think this is crazy if it's wrong? Try being wrong with 30+ snow amounts on the day of Juno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Most models show a very similar track with the initial wave, the nam is just quit a bit cooler and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam says 4-8 for some interior section... Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 1.5" + of rain for most also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gfs is 1-2" snow, and one hell of a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Gfs is 1-2" snow, and one hell of a rainstormIt's been consistently showing 2"+ of rain for many runs now, in good agreement with its ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 On a personal note, my Dad is in Southern MS on business. I'm a bit worried about the severe potential down there tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 This only includes about half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro comes on a snowier overnight for first wave, general 1-3, some 4" spots far N.... Nam may not be as crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Winter weather advisories up now for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro comes on a snowier overnight for first wave, general 1-3, some 4" spots far N.... Nam may not be as crazy All the models seem to be painting this as somewhat elevation dependent (probably based on marginal temp profiles). I wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches on the hilltops in Orange and Putnam County vs an inch in the valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z RGEM has 2-4" of rain. Very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z RGEM has 2-4" of rain. Very little snow. none for the city, but 3-6 just north-HV jackpot and 2-4 SW CT - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Models jackpot NYC and east with 2-3 inches of rain. Canadian furthest east with a S central CT jackpot and NAM furthest west with over 2 inches for most of NJ as well. Either way, a wet stretch coming up. Hopefully one of these juicy storms will take a snowy path in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 My only observation is that it has become noticeably colder since 5:30 am. Maybe my area can squeeze out an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 PW's are forecast to be near record levels for late February as we get into a direct subtropical moisture feed. This system will be an unusual early season convective event here as the models actually bring in surface based in addition to elevated instability. The strongest thunderstorms will produce the heaviest rains and highest wind gusts. The Euro is generating the most surface based CAPE that I have ever seen here in February. Instability and moisture parameters more typical for spring. SREF_prob_cptp_1__f048.gif Screen shot 2016-02-23 at 7.30.38 AM.png Does this portend a more potent severe weather season in spring and summer? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 latest HRRR, agrees with nam, just not as much, 1-3, 4-5" lollies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nams been consistent for days now, even 84hrs out it showed a much snowier first wave for parts of our area.. Would not be shocked to see some pots pick up a quick 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Can you find the warm front lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Those of you hoping for snow in your area of more than 2-3" I think are going to be dissapointed. There is a tremendous amount of both warm air and moisture that will feed into this system. Not buying into the NAM or any other model that shows more than that. This is going to be a VERY wet system, just not very frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Those of you hoping for snow in your area of more than 2-3" I think are going to be dissapointed. There is a tremendous amount of both warm air and moisture that will feed into this system. Not buying into the NAM or any other model that shows more than that. This is going to be a VERY wet system, just not very frozen. Only the nam shows more than 2-3...so I hope nobody expects the 4-6 it shows, I'm expecting 1-3", 4" in the far NW sections may not be impossible, but rates will be awful with marginal temps and 850s around -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nam also continues to insist on back end snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 12z RGEM is really good from Rt 80 and points North. The Rain/Snow line actually drops South a bit thanks to heavier rates. Then after that it pretty much continues rain through Thursday morning, heavy at times. A very, very wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 I knew it was going to be a very wet run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 wow at the RGEM. 3 inches plus for some areas. Today's snow will be a memory by 7am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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