IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We all know there's going to be a storm. Where? When? How? All remain up in the air. The threat has been on the table for days and we're now within the five day window. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Despite what the models are showing today, I'm just not buying the two wave solution. I think it'll consolidate into one. My gut tells me this will be a coastal hugger with a snow to rain outcome, but the weenie in me is still hoping for a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 My Holly NWS afternoon AFD nuggets. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT LATESATURDAY NIGHT, ONE MORE WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHSMOSTLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THEPOCONOS AND NW NJ WHICH MAY STAY IN THE 40S). A WEAK SURFACE LOWWILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION.GFS APPEARS TO BE A DRY OUTLIER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT ONLY DEPICTSPRECIP OVER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ. THUS HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF/NAMSOLUTIONS WITH PRECIP LIKELY FOR ALL OF THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE ITSHOULD BE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THEPOCONOS AND NW NJ. HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SHIFTS FURTHERSE, THEN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE COULD SHIFT FURTHER SE AS WELL.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY,SLIDING TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FORMONDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES DOWN INTO OUR AREA.THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORECAST LOOKS TO ARRIVE SOMETIMELATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND THEN EXIT THE AREA BY LATEWEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY IN THE MODELGUIDANCE WHICH STILL LEAD TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO THETRACK AND TIMING OF TWO LOWS MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST REGION.THE ONE THING THAT THEY SEEM TO SHOW THOUGH IS THAT TEMPERATURESLOOK TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WHICH WOULD LEND MORE CONFIDENCE TO AMAJORITY RAIN EVENT, AND IN MANY AREAS IT COULD END UP BEING HEAVYRAIN. SOME SNOW OR WINTRY MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OFTHE PRECIPITATION AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA,ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURES MAY DROPENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MIXING TO OCCUR. PRECIPITATION COULD STARTMOVING IN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, ANDOVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN ISTHEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY,ENDING FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE THE SECOND LOW ARRIVES WEDNESDAYNIGHT.IT IS CERTAINLY LOOKING LIKE THE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAYTIME FRAME WILL BE FAIRLY UNSETTLED AND MANY DETAILS STILL NEEDTO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA, WE SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSUREBRIEFLY RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAYWITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A STORM THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TRACK AND TEMPERATURES PROFILES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ^^^^ lol @ this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The 18z GFS is putting most of the eggs in the proverbial basket of the trailing energy. It looks very much like the Euro through 96hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And then we have Upton, no talk of shifts or changes or a hobby that things can change. They have the grab him by the balls approach right now && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...PROVIDING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIKELY MOVING INTO OUR REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AT THIS TIME THE 12Z OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS STILL THE FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM ON TUESDAY TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR INLAND LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE TRANSITION BACK TO PLAIN RAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL AWAY ON THURSDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DOSE OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 There's going to be a massive storm this run and it's probably going to end up looking like the UKMET or Para Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nothing much going with the initial wave. Warm and light precip. As I said, all the energy is back in the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Massive closed low over SW MO. Even more energy dropping into the backside. This is going way West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol at the 4 lows that only seem to pop up from Texas to east coast at hour 84, then only 1 low next hour in Texas... Look at H5, you're over analyzing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks like this is going to actually end up near Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 993 in eastern Oklahoma lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nice rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Another solution by the gfs. Onto 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Think we need to wait for a lower AO to get the big snow. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Christ. Next run will be in freaking Chicago or something lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nobody east of Illinois sees any snow lmao... Now I'm a tad nervous... If this holds for a few runs, i may bite... Gfs, ukie, para euro..... No Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ok, so for record keeping. 12z hour 138 was in ocean, versus what that tine would be for 18z, basically Chicago... that's deft red flags to WTF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Next week's pattern and storm evolution are an absolute trainwreck. Also throws a huge wrench into those folks' forecasts that are calling for a sweet pattern for late Feb thru mid-March. Looks like winter may be saying good riddance 2015-16 by flipping us the bird. Just ugly. And this isnt based off the 18z gfs op solely btw....ens means have all seemed to have taken a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 It's almost there Chicago maybe one more run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Remember 12z Euro did give even NYC a few inches of snow before a changeover. Euro is not flip flopping around like crazy like GFS is, so I would pay much more attention to it rather than GFS. GFS is laughable with these MASSIVE run to run changes! This is probably going to be mostly a rainstorm but that doesn't mean we can't get a decent front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wish upon a star if you like but this is going to likely be all rain for the coast. Inland areas MAY see a change to Frozen precip but I think it all goes back over to rain. As far as this winter, save for maybe a small 6-8" dying gasp I'm really thinking a change in the pattern and an early spring is on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wish upon a star if you like but this is going to likely be all rain for the coast. Inland areas MAY see a change to Frozen precip but I think it all goes back over to rain. As far as this winter, save for maybe a small 6-8" dying gasp I'm really thinking a change in the pattern and an early spring is on the horizon. March looks to start off wintry with the favorable mjo and tellies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gefs mean says op is out to lunch. Looks like euro mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gefs mean says op is out to lunch. Looks like euro mean. Gefs actually look the best they have in a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gefs bring a 998 off jersey just south of Long Island up to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Navgem, is a weak initial wave off the Delmarva, light precip, the second wave goes off Carolina shores blows up 992 and turns north just west of BM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Navgem thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 So the GEFS try and phase the energy leading to a slp heading almost due North towards the Ohio Valley then it just stops and turns due East? What causes it to stop its Northward trek? I see no blocking to the North of the slp and the PV seems too far N to be having a direct impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anyone know what the experimental HIWPP model is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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