snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 18Z GFS holds serve on track but about 10mb weaker than the 12Z. A little colder at the surface for YYZ this run. Would imply more snow. The map Hillsdale posted seems to confirm that but what a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 A little colder at the surface for YYZ this run. Would imply more snow. The map Hillsdale posted seems to confirm that but what a tight gradient. It's obviously going to change, but model spread is still decent and the ensembles from 12Z confirmed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 A little colder at the surface for YYZ this run. Would imply more snow. The map Hillsdale posted seems to confirm that but what a tight gradient. that's the 12z this is the 18z. Not that either is correct but the 18z tells the story that if you're south of Michigan the track moving north out of the southern states doesn't matter as much as hoping it winds up just north or northeast and puts you into backlash. The air mass sucks ahead of this so there is very little cold sector precip on the western edge as it comes up. Not you, but anyone at our latitude would have to rely on the deepening storm, slowing down and pulling in the cold once it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's obviously going to change, but model spread is still decent and the ensembles from 12Z confirmed that. Wassup SCMI bud? Liking our chances on this one. NAVGEM got off it's coastal x-fer wagon in a major way. Need this to ramp 1/2 state earlier and we got ourselves something special around here me thinks. Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hoping for a flurry or two Thursday as a decaying vort rotates around the back side. lol...same thing here. It is the same pain in the $@%@ routine that just won't end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM coming in with a wide snowfall area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z NAM @84 shows this going neg tilt down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM coming in with a wide snowfall area. It is having an issue with low location, trying to force one with the convection while there is a low further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 WPC Updated D3/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 It is having an issue with low location, trying to force one with the convection while there is a low further north. Also, the evolution of the storm in the southern Plains is weird...compared to the other globals. NAM seems to create the storm out of the lead s/w that the GFS/EURO/UKIE don't emphasize at all. Gets the storm to same location by 84, but a little funky. Might be warm for YYZ beyond 84 but a nice front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Also, the evolution of the storm in the southern Plains is weird...compared to the other globals. NAM seems to create the storm out of the lead s/w that the GFS/EURO/UKIE don't emphasize at all. Gets the storm to same location by 84, but a little funky. Might be warm for YYZ beyond 84 but a nice front end thump. Yeah I was going to say it is faster than any other model, that must be why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would take that right now lol. 7.2 at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 My main concern for Toronto at the moment is the marginal temperatures. The Weather Network up here is calling for mixed precipitation on Wednesday, 2-4" of snow on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That's so painful for me although that second low down south would likely head north and maybe bomb which would get me into snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Is that EPS the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 My goodness, this thing is looking like a beast for my area (Hamilton, ON). 15cm already by 7am Wed. (storm is far from over at this point) on the NAM and a good setup for some lake enhancement as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 18z GEFS look juicy but thermals are as close as you can get for TO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 My goodness, this thing is looking like a beast for my area (Hamilton, ON). 15cm already by 7am Wed. (storm is far from over at this point) on the NAM and a good setup for some lake enhancement as well... lol, gonna be tough to get lake enhancement with 850 temps of -1c. Also, looking at the neg tilt of the trough, the sfc low would probably head N/NNE beyond 84 and we'd torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nam has the look of Big icestorm somewhere in NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 lol, gonna be tough to get lake enhancement with 850 temps of -1c. Also, looking at the neg tilt of the trough, the sfc low would probably head N/NNE beyond 84 and we'd torch. torch is probably an overstatement but we'd probably turn over to a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z GFS is west. Bringing low right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Big,lots of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Is that EPS the 12z run? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 I guess the GFS maxes out at 2 runs of continuity. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Grats Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Stronger srn stream wave this run, closes off aloft first along I-40 near the OK/TX border then opens briefly then closes for good along the Red River before a really impressive phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 This is the third time the GFS has shown a westerly track like this. The last two times it lost it on the subsequent run. So, I'm not buying it yet. I think what the 0z UKIE shows will be the first instructive signal of the evening, given its great consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0Z GFS bulls eye is actually over Cass County MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hoosier approved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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