snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I agree. Sfc temps get as high as 34-35f... not terrible. Pushing it...unless the peak warmth is just before the best juice gets here. But as you said, no need to dissect the details at this point. The snowfall map seems to suggest we'll be ok though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah I saw that too, looked similar but definitely phased it. I want a big phase to prove to you the GL aren't in a synoptic desert. lol...I don't think I said the great lakes were a "synoptic" desert. And if I did, I misspoke. They're a desert for monster synoptic storms akin to what you see on the EC. And really just the eastern Lakes in that regard. Western Lakes do better with the bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEM has been playing catchup all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is it fair to say the system can only move east so much before it hits the Appalachian mountains... Good to see something in the region to track. It will be hard to watch miss the region to the west yet another time this season, when we are in rain and 36°f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is it fair to say the system can only move east so much before it hits the Appalachian mountains... Good to see something in the region to track. It will be hard to watch miss the region to the west yet another time this season, when we are in rain and 36°f. The mountains wouldn't be doing the blocking. The blocking high would be. The great lakes is the battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 since the nuke runs that started at 18z yesterday there has been a slow trend back southeast. Will it continue or reverse again? That euro run was odd. Really strong storm in the south but I think the reason it's not cutting more north is because the ULL closes off which causes it to head more east first. If that upper low doesn't cut off, that thing would probably cut to central IN.With the op euro's tendency to close off early this is a good point, also the Para Euro from last night was similar to the 18/6z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yesterday models jumped to the phased bomb....since then, (18z), they've been taming a bit. You're both right lol Pretty sure the 6z GFS went jumped back NW from the 0z run...then the 12z went SE. Not one big trend from 18z. It's been flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Pushing it...unless the peak warmth is just before the best juice gets here. But as you said, no need to dissect the details at this point. The snowfall map seems to suggest we'll be ok though. Heres the text data. Reminds me of 2/26/13. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 24-FEB -3.1 -3.7 1024 74 24 0.00 552 534 WED 18Z 24-FEB 3.1 -2.4 1020 76 75 0.00 554 538 THU 00Z 25-FEB 0.5 -1.2 1013 97 96 0.07 552 541 THU 06Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.5 1000 97 100 0.42 544 543 THU 12Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.2 988 97 95 0.57 532 542 THU 18Z 25-FEB 1.5 -4.1 985 88 98 0.14 526 539 FRI 00Z 26-FEB -0.7 -8.4 990 80 96 0.05 524 532 FRI 06Z 26-FEB -2.1 -10.8 993 79 92 0.04 520 525 FRI 12Z 26-FEB -6.1 -13.9 1000 75 94 0.04 521 521 FRI 18Z 26-FEB -5.6 -14.5 1007 59 40 0.01 525 519 SAT 00Z 27-FEB -7.2 -16.0 1013 67 17 0.00 528 518 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Heres the text data. Reminds me of 2/26/13. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 24-FEB -3.1 -3.7 1024 74 24 0.00 552 534 WED 18Z 24-FEB 3.1 -2.4 1020 76 75 0.00 554 538 THU 00Z 25-FEB 0.5 -1.2 1013 97 96 0.07 552 541 THU 06Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.5 1000 97 100 0.42 544 543 THU 12Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.2 988 97 95 0.57 532 542 THU 18Z 25-FEB 1.5 -4.1 985 88 98 0.14 526 539 FRI 00Z 26-FEB -0.7 -8.4 990 80 96 0.05 524 532 FRI 06Z 26-FEB -2.1 -10.8 993 79 92 0.04 520 525 FRI 12Z 26-FEB -6.1 -13.9 1000 75 94 0.04 521 521 FRI 18Z 26-FEB -5.6 -14.5 1007 59 40 0.01 525 519 SAT 00Z 27-FEB -7.2 -16.0 1013 67 17 0.00 528 518 Oh yeah, we could get plastered at 0.8c. Assuming there's no sneaky warm layers aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Overall the last few days have seen a very big NW trend. It went from jackpot in SNE to a jackpot in Michigan. This just got a lot more interesting for Toledo and Dayton, as of the 00z GFS run. It has 980mb in Pittsburgh, near blizzard in Toledo. The way things have been going, we won't know what's going to happen until 6 hours before it starts snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 lol...I don't think I said the great lakes were a "synoptic" dessert. And if I did, I misspoke. They're a dessert for monster synoptic storms akin to what you see on the EC. And really just the eastern Lakes in that regard. Western Lakes do better with the bombs. I'd like the synoptic dessert for $5.99, rain with a topping of snow, with a topping of glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd like the synoptic dessert for $5.99, rain with a topping of snow, with a topping of glaze. lol...can't believe I did that. Twice too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 A foot of wet snow would be brutal to shovel, but I'd take it. The signs are looking increasingly positive for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I will take 6 inches of snow with blizzard conditions and run with it if it comes to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 lol...can't believe I did that. Twice too. When I lived in Toledo, I thought that it stunk for major snow events but it was OK for 3-6" events. Mid-Michigan to Wisconsin and even Chicago get better synoptic snow storms (with LES combo) over 8". Cleveland gets lake effect snow, South Bend gets lake effect snow. Perhaps both Cleveland and South Bend have had a few larger synoptic events in history than Toledo. On the other hand, the Cleveland people on this board feel they have missed a lot of potential synoptic events recentlly. I always thought that New York state into most of New England were ideally set up for frequent synoptic snows. After browsing the Upstate NY/PA subforum, I have learned that the ROC and BUF people consider themselves to be in an area of few large synoptic snow storms, but frequent LES. I made a post, asking why ROC on average gets 100" of snow per year if they can't get good synoptic storms and they don't get super-LES. BUF airport can get super lake effect snow events, but ROC airport is not set up for a super LES band. Whatever the case, both ROC and BUF get 2.5x Toledo's annual snow, so they are in a different league. It looks like Hamilton to Toronto gets 40-50" (100cm-125cm), but the Toronto people feel rather unlucky on synoptic storms recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This just got a lot more interesting for Toledo and Dayton, as of the 00z GFS run. It has 980mb in Pittsburgh, near blizzard in Toledo. The way things have been going, we won't know what's going to happen until 6 hours before it starts snowing! The track is looking good and timing could be favorable. Appearing to be a nighttime event which could help out with temps. Awaiting to see ILN's newest AFD soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 When I lived in Toledo, I thought that it stunk for major snow events but it was OK for 3-6" events. Mid-Michigan to Wisconsin and even Chicago get better synoptic snow storms (with LES combo) over 8". Cleveland gets lake effect snow, South Bend gets lake effect snow. Perhaps both Cleveland and South Bend have had a few larger synoptic events in history than Toledo. On the other hand, the Cleveland people on this board feel they have missed a lot of potential synoptic events recentlly. I always thought that New York state into most of New England were ideally set up for frequent synoptic snows. After browsing the Upstate NY/PA subforum, I have learned that the ROC and BUF people consider themselves to be in an area of few large synoptic snow storms, but frequent LES. I made a post, asking why ROC on average gets 100" of snow per year if they can't get good synoptic storms and they don't get super-LES. BUF airport can get super lake effect snow events, but ROC airport is not set up for a super LES band. Whatever the case, both ROC and BUF get 2.5x Toledo's annual snow, so they are in a different league. It looks like Hamilton to Toronto gets 40-50" (100cm-125cm), but the Toronto people feel rather unlucky on synoptic storms recently. ROC wont get major single band events but they can get frequent, weaker multiband events on a variety of flows from 300 to 30 degrees. I think over a course of a winter those smaller events really add up. Kind of like a toned down version of the UP of MI. I can't recall ever seeing a death band rock MQT. For us it's been the last 6-7 years that's really seen the snow dry up for extended periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 EURO ensemble mean is a bit SE of the OP run. Takes the low to State College rather than ROC. Probably a lot of spread though. Fair size jump from the 0z run though. I think the mean was closer to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z EPS Snowfall (through 18z Friday) ORD: 0.5" Toledo: 5" DTW: 5-6" YXU: 5-6" CLE: 5-6" BUF: 6" YYZ: 6.5-7.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z EPS Snowfall (through 18z Friday) ORD: 0.5" Toledo: 5" DTW: 5-6" YXU: 5-6" CLE: 5-6" BUF: 6" YYZ: 6.5-7.5" Dayton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z EPS Snowfall (through 18z Friday) ORD: 0.5" Toledo: 5" DTW: 5-6" YXU: 5-6" CLE: 5-6" BUF: 6" YYZ: 6.5-7.5" We all get hit! Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Dayton? 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Definitely won't be seeing the snow amounts we saw in the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We all get hit! Lock it in. The zone should sharpen as we approach but it gives a good idea of who's in play for the largest dumping ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 IWX's thoughts. THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF THISUPCOMING WEEK AFTER AN UPSTREAM TROF TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVERWESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND RACES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST. FORTHIS PACKAGE... FAVOR THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS HAD SOME RUNTO RUN ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY...THE 12Z SURFACE LOW TRACK WITHTHIS SYSTEM MATCHES THE LATEST CIPS ANALOGS...FAVORINGPRECIPITATION EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND INTO NORTHERNINDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE RAISEDPRECIPITATION CHANCES 30 PERCENT ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL BLENDWEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATED PRECIPITATION BECOMINGALL SNOW AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THEUNCERTAINTY OF THE TIME OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AND STILL SOMEUNCERTAINTY OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCESUNDER 55 PERCENT AND WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE MENTION OFACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. This reminds me of the 2/23/12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Interesting analog, showing up on CIPS SE sector (96hr) and East sector (120hr) Analog Run: East Coast GFS212 20160220/1200F120: analog is Event 20030223/1200. This was the biggest snowstorm of the 2002-2003 winter for Toledo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Last frame of the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18Z GFS holds serve on track but about 10mb weaker than the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yuck, I guess we'll see the 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Hoping for a flurry or two Thursday as a decaying vort rotates around the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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