dan123 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z UKIE looks like a carbon copy of the GFS re: track. AL/TN/MS border at 96 to east of Buffalo at 120. Only drops it to 989 though by 120, compared to sub 984 on the GFS at the same time. Model of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z Canadian has a track from C NC(996mb) to near Sherbrooke(974mb). It looks like its gonna cut due north much earlier but ends up transferring east from N LA to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anything less then 5". I will pass. Today is unbelievably awesome outdoors.I call BS I would believe that from some people, but not you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z Canadian has a track from C NC(996mb) to near Sherbrooke(974mb). It looks like its gonna cut due north much earlier but ends up transferring east from N LA to NC. I'd toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I call BS I would believe that from some people, but not you lol You got me. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z GEFS mean looks like it's going to be identical to the OP GFS track, just not as strong. edit: the above is true through 102. After that, the mean starts to drift to the SE a bit. By 126 it has a 989 over Binghamton rather than in eastern Ontario like the OP. There's probably a handful of GGEM like members responsible for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z UKIE looks like a carbon copy of the GFS re: track. AL/TN/MS border at 96 to east of Buffalo at 120. Only drops it to 989 though by 120, compared to sub 984 on the GFS at the same time. Not quite as phased as previous runs though. If it were more phased the left turn signal would have been on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Tough call with so many pieces coming together. Honestly don't have a gut feeling either way. I think I'd rather be east but intrigued enough to watch the models after taking a break from model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 if euro loses the early phase, it's probably off the table, if it bombs away, then probably good chance for it. Very rare to see models all find a big phase lose it and then find it again, inside of 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 At 72, EURO doesn't look nearly as aggressive as the GFS in terms of digging the northern stream. Sfc low in TX is also a fair bit south of the GFS. I would think this won't be as far west/amped up as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 995mb across extreme NW MS at hour 96. Probably going to be amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 995mb across extreme NW MS at hour 96. Probably going to be amped. Yeah, the phase is not as fulsome as the GFS but just the southern stream portion of the storm is way more amped. Two closed contours at H5. Not sure when it'll make the turn though. I just compared it to the GGEM at 96 and they look similar. Missing the phase initially but with a much more impressive southern stream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Bombs away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Bombs away! We seem to have a pretty good agreement on the track now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 since the nuke runs that started at 18z yesterday there has been a slow trend back southeast. Will it continue or reverse again? That euro run was odd. Really strong storm in the south but I think the reason it's not cutting more north is because the ULL closes off which causes it to head more east first. If that upper low doesn't cut off, that thing would probably cut to central IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 We seem to have a pretty good agreement on the track now. 5 days out, bet it changes quite a bit still. With this NW trend, Chicago might jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thermals manage to hang on in the GTA. 925/850mb temps remain below zero due to strong lift/saturation but sfc temps are above zero. No point in getting too invested in thermals until track is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Bombs away! Ends up pretty much like the GFS, only a bit slower. UKMET in agreement too though not as deep. Went over to the NE thread just to make sure I wasn't crazy when I said it looked more similar to the GEM early on, and ORH_Wxman seems to agree. Misses the phase initially but recovers more quickly than the GGEM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Ends up pretty much like the GFS, only a bit slower. UKMET in agreement too though not as deep. Went over to the NE thread just to make sure I wasn't crazy when I said it looked more similar to the GEM early on, and ORH_Wxman seems to agree. Misses the phase initially but recovers more quickly than the GGEM does. Yeah I saw that too, looked similar but definitely phased it. I want a big phase to prove to you the GL aren't in a synoptic desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thermals manage to hang on in the GTA. 925/850mb temps remain below zero due to strong lift/saturation but sfc temps are above zero. No point in getting too invested in thermals until track is clear. Not impossible to get a very heavy wet snowstorm at 1.0-1.5c at the surface. Assuming it's no warmer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall total junk for such a strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall ecmwf_tsnow_ne_22.png Yeah that was a perfect track for you guys, but as already mentioned we really need some cold air invested in this system or we will see thermal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 5 days out, bet it changes quite a bit still. With this NW trend, Chicago might jackpot. LOL. What NW trend? If anything it's probably east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 LOL. What NW trend? If anything it's probably east a bit. Overall the last few days have seen a very big NW trend. It went from jackpot in SNE to a jackpot in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Not impossible to get a very heavy wet snowstorm at 1.0-1.5c at the surface. Assuming it's no warmer than that. I agree. Sfc temps get as high as 34-35f... not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The piece of energy that directly results in this system is still 48 hours from coming onshore, once were able to add that to the data set we will get a much better idea of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Snowfall ecmwf_tsnow_greatlakes_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Overall the last few days have seen a very big NW trend. It went from jackpot in SNE to a jackpot in Michigan. Yesterday models jumped to the phased bomb....since then, (18z), they've been taming a bit. You're both right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 lol...this is where your latitude is helping out. Cold air isn't as entrenched down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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