buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think central Indiana to Detroit and just east has had the best overall consensus. Hard to go against the euro (OP and para), lining up with the gfs. For folks further east our hopes are the ggem, (which is probably only east because it hasn't found the phase yet), and euro ens which haven't been worth anything lately. And then of course the old lifeline of, we're still 5 days out, and is this suddenly going to be the locked in solution? Maybe, it happened with the MA storm. The other thing is the storm is pretty deep, as in sub 990 as it approaches the OV, if models are over doing that, if the phase comes a little later, than that could help the east crowd too. Of course the other option is it could even start modeling deeper with an earlier phase and end up even more west. Last option which we've seen before.... the models suddenly lose the phase and we end up back to a strung out pos off the MA coast. there....I think I covered it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gfs dancing all over last 3 runs as expected though. I like Chicago atm to have the best chance for a warning criteria event. Still like Chicago best threading the needle like the gfs does a few times. Other 0z models laugh at that.. Shrugs, we'll know a little more at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I've gone negative for some reverse karma to hopefully get a big dog lol. 6z GEFS mean is east of the op but pretty good clustering NW of the mean with about 5 members that would likely entail a good hit back into at least part of the LOT CWA. 00z EPS is east of GEFS but still has several members with a SLP track through Indiana. $1 million question is whether phasing occurs between southern stream wave and lead northern stream wave and how far west this happens, plus how quickly next northern stream wave dives in. NAO is forecast to stay positive so there's nothing really forcing an eastern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 this and this.... Congrats Indy to Detroit.... If this does happen the CMH screwhole will be complete, big dogs circled and dumped, north, south, east, and west. Although i'd rather see you guys get it than another coaster. JB should be an interesting read Wouldn't be a winter without storms missing in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wouldn't be a winter without storms missing in all directions. If this goes west I'll kind of feel cheated....usually CMH is the king of late season cement storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 If this goes west I'll kind of feel cheated....usually CMH is the king of late season cement storms. I agree. But I don't have a good feeling about this for central OH. Toledo, I think, is going to be a better location. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wednesday night thru Thursday. I'm leaving Friday morning for South Bend that might be questionable I'll be driving up 75 all the way into Canada Thursday. I might try and leave late Wednesday. Obviously things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 One would think this is going to be like that 1998 storm in early March. ORD to GRR special. El Niño year. It all makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I agree. But I don't have a good feeling about this for central OH. Toledo, I think, is going to be a better location. I hope I'm wrong. Same here. That dreaded NW trend has started. No stopping it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 this and this.... Congrats Indy to Detroit.... If this does happen the CMH screwhole will be complete, big dogs circled and dumped, north, south, east, and west. Although i'd rather see you guys get it than another coaster. JB should be an interesting read I'd rather see a southern slider broken up POS that misses everybody. Sorry, misery loves company! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I have to say that I liked the early morning run of the Euro. According to the snowfall projection on Weatherbell, it would give the GTA between 10-12" of snow. Cancuck is right, though. The temperatures look to be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 One would think this is going to be like that 1998 storm in early March. ORD to GRR special. El Niño year. It all makes sense.Meh individual storm tracks mean nothing. 1982-83 was destined to become the most snowless winter Detroit had ever seen then bam! March 21st snowstorm said forget that. Anyone can get a storm. And anyone can get this storm. I have absolutely no gut feeling one way or the other, I just hope it's us. We have had quite a few shovelable snows this year but not a single solitary one where the plow plows your driveway in. That happened like 8 times in 2013-14 and my back ached. I want it to ache just once this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Same here. That dreaded NW trend has started. No stopping it now. 2 most likely scenarios suck for us....(which I kind of always felt with this one). Either the phase happens as shown and it's a strong cutter, rain, or the phase misses and it's the pos slider missing to the south. Chances of an improved phase/timing to benefit us is probably around 15%. Indices aren't total trash for that. Wxbell shows the Euro and Gfs have the nao dropping very close to neutral , the ao still negative, and the pna slightly positive, right at that time frame. Not really a strong indicator either way I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Meh individual storm tracks mean nothing. 1982-83 was destined to become the most snowless winter Detroit had ever seen then bam! March 21st snowstorm said forget that. Anyone can get a storm. And anyone can get this storm. I have absolutely no gut feeling one way or the other, I just hope it's us. We have had quite a few shovelable snows this year but not a single solitary one where the plow plows your driveway in. That happened like 8 times in 2013-14 and my back ached. I want it to ache just once this year! Another storm that came to mine was that first day of spring storm in 96. Very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z EPS Mean Snowfall (#'s are approximate, 10:1 ratio, assuming algorithm is correct) ORD: 1" DTW: 3" YXU: 4" YYZ: 4.5" CLE: 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The last 4 pages summed up from DTX.... ...A MORESIZABLE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE ENVELOP OFPOSSIBLE OUTCOMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z EPS Mean Snowfall (#'s are approximate, 10:1 ratio, assuming algorithm is correct) ORD: 1" DTW: 3" YXU: 4" YYZ: 4.5" CLE: 5.5" broader look. Looks like nw OH between cmh and toledo is the axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAM/SREFs would be east of the 6z GFS if extrapolated. Not that it matters one iota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 NAM/SREFs would be east of the 6z GFS if extrapolated. Not that it matters one iota. I will admit, it does concern me when the NAM / SREFs don't really amp up a potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 These setups where very little separates bomb from turd are always tough. If it does go nuclear, I like where I sit and if it doesnt, who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 These setups where very little separates bomb from turd are always tough. If it does go nuclear, I like where I sit and if it doesnt, who cares Yep. Obviously, if we can get something like the GFS and EURO, I'm all for this potential storm. Anything less (especially this late in the season), I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 At 60 looks like the northern stream is not amplifying as much on the 12z GFS compared to the 6z. Think it'll come east a bit but it won't be a strung out turd by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 By 96 it looks like it'll be weaker/east than even the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 By 96 it looks like it'll be weaker/east than even the 0z run. Yep. And no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 SW ON paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 SW ON paste job. I'll be in London for this ...but even there the temps look to me to be a little above freezing even during the heaviest precip. Very April like storm depicted on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'll be in London for this ...but even there the temps look to me to be a little above freezing even during the heaviest precip. Very April like storm depicted on the GFS. The leading vort really pushes the BZ north out ahead of the system. I wonder if that will end up correct or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEM still well to the east. 996 over northern NC at 120h. Decent QPF over OH associated with the ul but no cold in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Anything less then 5". I will pass. Today is unbelievably awesome outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z UKIE looks like a carbon copy of the GFS re: track. AL/TN/MS border at 96 to east of Buffalo at 120. Only drops it to 989 though by 120, compared to sub 984 on the GFS at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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