HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 DT's thoughts. Kind of jumping the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEFS ensemble mean out to 114 on the site I use. Has a 1008 on the NC/TN border. ...ends up over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Nothing ever lasts forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 And yeah, wouldn't itbe something is the 00z GFS happens... A widespread 10-20" plaster job from Cincinnati to Detroit with blizzard conditions. A nice TROWAL structure as well, for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The GFS mega-phase is probably unlikely. It also hyper-energizes the PV for a nasty cold show afterwards lol. Probably not, if only for the reason that I can only recall 2 other storms even coming close to that type of storm track / strength (January 14th, 1992 and December 23rd, 2004). Besides, the eye candy at least is still nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEM misses the phase partial phase late for interior EC event. Actually all 3 models were at the same spot at 96 hours, but instead of phasing like it should, the gem decided the northern stream would kick it out. Considering the source and the type of system this is, I think I would ignore the gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro agrees with the gfs on timing and strength of the low. Euro is just a bit due north of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That looks like a good low position for Central Indiana and then later Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Crazy spread on GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Crazy spread on GEFS Mostly leaning left, just some far right out to sea runs pulling it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 That looks like a good low position for Central Indiana and then later Detroit.10 to 12 from Indy to Detroit decently wide swath too. Most of southern MI gets clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Good work Euro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 For Ontario Toronto is on the edge, Kitchener/Waterloo much better. Probably better than SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 It's been a long time since a set of GFS / EURO runs had a near-identical solution for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 06Z GFS flopped again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 For Ontario Toronto is on the edge, Kitchener/Waterloo much better. Probably better than SEMI. And a few hours NNW (North-northwest) of K/W? 06Z GFS flopped again *Image* I get almost nothing on that one . I can't remember the last time I actually got over 30 cm in 24 hours from a low system, probably have to go back to last decade. I want either a blizzard or rain with warm temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Biggest red flag for me is the marginal antecedent airmass. It's going to make a perfect track necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Tough call with so many pieces coming together. Honestly don't have a gut feeling either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Both the 0z EURO ensemble mean and the 6z GEFs mean are east of their respectively OP model track. However, I got a suspicion the ensembles are playing catch up with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Tough call with so many pieces coming together. Honestly don't have a gut feeling either way. wagons west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd take the 6z GFS and run. Solid blizzard here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This looking like a Thursday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Both the 0z EURO ensemble mean and the 6z GEFs mean are east of their respectively OP model track. However, I got a suspicion the ensembles are playing catch up with this one. wagons west. this and this.... Congrats Indy to Detroit.... If this does happen the CMH screwhole will be complete, big dogs circled and dumped, north, south, east, and west. Although i'd rather see you guys get it than another coaster. JB should be an interesting read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This looking like a Thursday event? Wednesday night thru Thursday. I'm leaving Friday morning for South Bend that might be questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think central Indiana to Detroit and just east has had the best overall consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I put my snow blower away for the winter yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I put my snow blower away for the winter yesterday. I think that's where I went wrong. I took mine out and set it in the middle of the garage about 6 weeks ago when it looked like we might hit a snowy period. Been sitting there collecting dust since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The signal for a strong winter storm is very good but way too early to worry about consensus anywhere. The jackpot will be narrow as usual but hopefully the snow shield itself wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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