UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I've had the first ghd storm on my mind since last week when this was a much farther east looking hit. Only going to be 25 degrees warmer and 20" of snow less here in Caledonia, WI..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 dude, in the last 10 pages we've learned no complaining and no final calls. at least you left out imby ?? What the hell are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 dude, in the last 10 pages we've learned no complaining and no final calls. at least you left out imby ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm going to hold off until the 12z runs before completely writing this one off. But the good news, at least form what it seems, the trend has been for less cold sector precip. So that will take the sting out of missing the heavy snow axis. It looks like your cutoff to the west is more substantial... You're still good for 4-5 tho - wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 ...? yeah...i'm confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 overflow thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47936-potential-major-winter-storm-feb-24-27/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think maybe Ryan was adding some morning sarcasm.. Shrugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This sucks for the OH/ E IN guys... decent amount of rain with this. This storm a month ago would have done this area well, if the thermals didn't suck as much as they do now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well, remember the Euro/NAM/GEM could still be right. See the WPCs reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think maybe Ryan was adding some morning sarcasm.. Shrugs yep, just had my coffee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Preliminary call for Toronto: 1-2" on the front end tomorrow afternoon and 1-2" on the backside Thursday for a total of 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 yep, just had my coffee... Oh cause of the Baum thing. Got it. No coffee in me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I might have a bit of hope being this far west, but most likely I'm going to end up on the wrong end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Preliminary call for Toronto: 1-2" on the front end tomorrow afternoon and 1-2" on the backside Thursday for a total of 2-4". Hopes for the front end are rapidly diminishing. Looks like it'll be just too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Preliminary call for Toronto: 1-2" on the front end tomorrow afternoon and 1-2" on the backside Thursday for a total of 2-4". I'm thinking 1-3" on the front side and 1-3" on the back side. Mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just talked to one of the IWX guys, they are still riding the Euro. They say the GFSes lack of consistency makes it unusable. Big problem with this storm that no one on here has mentioned is the very large chance of power outages with the wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well, remember the Euro/NAM/GEM could still be right. See the WPCs reasoning Correct. No one on the fringes should be jumping ship. Lot of variables in play- track, brutal gradient, down south convection, thermals. Hopefully we can watch a nice storm pull up from the gulf states. That's a rare thing these days. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hopes for the front end are rapidly diminishing. Looks like it'll be just too warm. Good point. If it snows, most of it could melt on contact unless dynamic cooling saves the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Oh cause of the Baum thing. Got it. No coffee in me yet. Its gonna be a long 48 hours... Load up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just talked to one of the IWX guys, they are still riding the Euro. They say the GFSes lack of consistency makes it unusable. Big problem with this storm that no one on here has mentioned is the very large chance of power outages with the wet snow. The 12Z Sunday Euro had Chicago golden. The 00Z Monday brought it east. It has remained the same since. It has been consistent for 24 hours thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm thinking 1-3" on the front side and 1-3" on the back side. Mostly rain. Last night's 00z GGEM run was interesting with mostly snow (low ratio, though). Hopefully today's 12z model runs will come into better agreement as there should be full sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just talked to one of the IWX guys, they are still riding the Euro. They say the GFSes lack of consistency makes it unusable. Big problem with this storm that no one on here has mentioned is the very large chance of power outages with the wet snow. And the wind. 30-50 knots looks good once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Last night's 00z GGEM run was interesting with mostly snow (low ratio, though). Hopefully today's 12z model runs will come into better agreement as there should be full sampling. I'm going with 1" on the front end and 2" on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 12Z Sunday Euro had Chicago golden. The 00Z Monday brought it east. It has remained the same since. It has been consistent for 24 hours thereafter.The reasoning is a day of good consistency is better than a model which hasn't had one run like the last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Its a crapshoot.... But I am thinking the thermals will end up much like the November storm. Waiting for the 3"wrap around of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The reasoning is a day of good consistency is better than a model which hasn't had one run like the last Meh.. I think overall minus the usual wavering this far out it's been pretty consistent with its own idea of the evolution. Whether one likes it for its backyard is a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Might have just lost this one for SE Michigan. Believe me, you're not missing much - will probably see temps in the 50s 3 days later, just like after the November snowstorm. Bah humbug... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Channel 7 was showing the accumulations for the GFS, Euro, NAM, and RPM, ranging from .6 to 6.6 inches. NAM and Euro were the lowest if I remember correctly, with .6 and .9 for snow totals for the Metro Area, GFS and RPM showed the largest at 4.4 and 6.6 inches. Yesterday's AFD from LOT was talking about ratios at the beginning of 6:1, eventually climbing to 13:1 as the event progressed. That is not going to be any fun to shovel, Hoping for the .6 or the .9 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Dear God, the GEM nukes Southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Dear God, the GEM nukes Southern MI That's how we role lately, eh? Nada or nuked! like last Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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