IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Did the snow shield shift W? Looking at it on my phone and, to me, it looks like it did. Opinions are greatly appreciated. (Very hard to compare on a phone, haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm having a very difficult time determining whether or not this rather dynamic system will bring some portion of eastern Michigan (possibly the thumb area) prospective blizzard or near-blizzard conditions Wednesday night into Thursday, with snowfall totals reaching 12"? There are still too many questions regarding the thermals and the exact track...which is most important given the somewhat marginal temperatures and rather tight gradient with the heaviest snowfall axis. I have to make a final decision no later than 1 pm EST tomorrow in order to get there during the day on Wednesday. Current very tentative intercept location would be between Port Austin and Port Huron in the thumb of Michigan. Regardless of whether or not I make the trip, I am genuinely hoping as many of you as possible get a significant event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 6z GFS is not budging still same solution in the western camp Edit: snow band is even further west in IL this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 6z GFS is not budging still same solution in the western camp I'm only up to hour 24. Are you up to hour 48 or greater, by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm only up to hour 24. Are you up to hour 48 of greater, by chance? Through hr 45...Nice STL special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Through hr 45...Nice STL special Thanks! I know IWM's load faster, but I usually use TT due to better resolution when viewing from my phone. That aside, the center of the low is virtually in the same location at 48 hours as it was at 54 hours on the 00z run. The main difference is that it's slightly less intense at 984 mb compared to 981 mb. Like you, I suspect, I'm hoping the respective 12z runs will provide far more clarity and a greater consensus wrt both track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanceja1991 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 KIND updated URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 353 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WEDNESDAY... INZ021-028>030-035-036-043-044-231700- /O.NEW.KIND.WS.A.0001.160224T1500Z-160225T1800Z/ CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION- PARKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...CRAWFORDSVILLE 353 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLEET WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-7 INCHES. * OTHER IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 MPH COMBINED WITH SNOW WILL PRODUCE DRASTIC REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ CP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This run also slashed the highest snowfall amounts from NW IN northeastward through SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another baby step back nw with the defo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Going to bed and hoping to awake to much improved/more consensus with the 12z runs. Good night, all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GFS and SREF now in agreement with just over 5" IMBY, so call looking good and Hi-res NAM continues to be further nw than 12k. General idea seems pretty locked and loaded but looking at 700, I can see amount being a bit higher over the nw. Biggest concern remains temps. 2m temps are terrible and surfaces are warm so areas just outside the heaviest band (especially se) could struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Take it to the crybaby board. We've had it pretty good until this winter. First flake hasn't even fallen. Storms don't always end up IYBY. Hike up your diaper and roll on. It's embarrassing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 EC pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch from KW/Guelph to Midwestern Ontario and southern Georgian Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 baum rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 barring any funky gulf convection induced disaster, i think we can makes this work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z GEFS more NW with QPF. Same with the LP in regards to the 00z suite. OT: Off to bed so I can be awake for the rainwrapped tornadoes in the S tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z GEFS more NW with QPF. Same with the LP in regards to the 00z suite. OT: Off to bed so I can be awake for the rainwrapped tornadoes in the S tomorrow. it was a rather large shift over chicagoland, especially for a mean this close to an event and certainly supports the OP 0z GEFS 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Izzi LOT AFD pure written meteorological porn this AM. And that's not including the 60's and Thunderstorms in the long term discussion. Going to be a blast to watch how this baby sorts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 He was lurking earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Pretty much what I expected to see the 6z gfs be. Let's keep it going at 12z and I might even snake in a coating.. Normally with a track like this we could look to some consolation help from lake Michigan but not this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Might have just lost this one for SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Might have just lost this one for SE Michigan. Yep. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm not certain what bearing this will have on the outcome (hopefully not a GHD #1-esque outcome), but it's really digging further south than the models progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm thinking the Euro is going to lose this battle. It's looking more and more like a straight cold rain event for me with maybe an inch of snow on the backside as the cold air moves in on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm not certain what bearing this will have on the outcome (hopefully not a GHD #1-esque outcome), but it's really digging further south than the models progged. I'm over it. 1-1.5" in the backwash. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yep. Same here. I'm going to hold off until the 12z runs before completely writing this one off. But the good news, at least form what it seems, the trend has been for less cold sector precip. So that will take the sting out of missing the heavy snow axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm thinking the Euro is going to lose this battle. It's looking more and more like a straight cold rain event for me with maybe an inch of snow on the backside as the cold air moves in on Thursday. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 it was a rather large shift over chicagoland, especially for a mean this close to an event and certainly supports the OP 0z GEFS 6z GEFS Just an expansion really. The heaviest snow axis hasn't shifted but the western edge has expanded. the sharp cutoff is still there. I remember something similar happening around mid-winter of last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm thinking the Euro is going to lose this battle. It's looking more and more like a straight cold rain event for me with maybe an inch of snow on the backside as the cold air moves in on Thursday. Yeah, looks pretty much like a lost cause here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm over it. 1-1.5" in the backwash. Final call. dude, in the last 10 pages we've learned no complaining and no final calls. at least you left out imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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