Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another? Chicago hasn't had one this winter. If you're talking the official siteThe late November storm was close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Late November storm for ORD was 11.2" I believe. Yeah close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 blackrock, I gotta side with Hillsdale this time. A lot of people make calls for their area. True though that nobody likes the excessively imby types. Oh, I know. That's why I included that in my post. I bolded the part I'm referring to. We don't need to know how much a certain location is getting with every model change. I've read several short responses towards him throughout the day from other posters because of this. But, hey, not my problem, right? Best wishes on this storm, Hillsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 00z WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW get precip farther west than the NAM. Especially the NMM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Late November storm for ORD was 11.2" I believe. Yeah close enough. Yea, not in Chicago proper, I reiterate. Think I'm still < 5 inches on the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yea, not in Chicago proper, I reiterate. Think I'm still < 5 inches on the season here. OT...what is your season total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yea, not in Chicago proper, I reiterate. Think I'm still < 5 inches on the season here. I'm around 15" including the sleet storm. Less than 5 seems low unless you're not counting the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 00z WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW get precip farther west than the NAM. Especially the NMM. Nice- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 First frame on the euro is 50 miles east of 0z last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Has this system been sampled? It has hasn't it- Ends up in the exact spot as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ya exact same spot... Appears to me to wrap in more cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 HPC was going with the NAM/EURO blend before the 0z EURO was even in and given its consistency, I doubt they alter their stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Euro says, I shall not be moved Anyone seen the snow map yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ya exact same spot... Appears to me to wrap in more cold air Wrapping in cold air is usually a sign of strengthening...so my guess is it's coming in stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HPC was going with the NAM/EURO blend before the 0z EURO was even in and given its consistency, I doubt they alter their stance. Euro has been locked in for about 2 1/2 days now, GFS has been wavering, I really can't blame them, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looks like a nice 4-10" strip from Farmington MO to north of Detroit....anyone know how the winds look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So by my count, it's basically the ECMWF/NAM/GEM vs the GFS/UKMET/SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 HPC was going with the NAM/EURO blend before the 0z EURO was even in and given its consistency, I doubt they alter their stance. Was a good discussion. They mentioned a deeper surface low is plausible ... GUIDANCE VARY SOMEWHAT WITHTHE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS ALONG THEAR/MS/TN BORDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE DEEPER SIDE ARE THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEMIS. A MORE STEADY-STATE CENTRAL PRESSURE EVENTUALLY IS ATTAINED ASTHE CIRCULATION BROADENS WITH LATITUDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So by my count, it's basically the ECMWF/NAM/GEM vs the GFS/UKMET/SREF. Have to give the GFS the credit for that 2/2 storm. That model held the steadiest while the other models moved around some. Axis of heavy snow on the EURO from Lafayette to Lansing to Saginaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 WPC ...CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER BY MIDDAY TUESDAY... ...STRENGTHENING UPPER/SURFACE LOWS LIFTING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF WITH THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE NOSE OF A 125 KNOT PACIFIC JET HAS SPAWNED A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TX. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER BY AROUND 23/1800Z WITH AN EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH 25/1200Z. GUIDANCE VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS ALONG THE AR/MS/TN BORDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE DEEPER SIDE ARE THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN HOW DYNAMIC THE SYSTEM IS. THESE SOLUTIONS ALSO TRENDED DEEPER BY APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 5 MB. A MORE STEADY-STATE CENTRAL PRESSURE EVENTUALLY IS ATTAINED AS THE CIRCULATION BROADENS WITH LATITUDE. AGREEMENT IS BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD WORTH MENTIONING. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT WEST OF THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS ALSO NOTED IN THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS ON RECENT ENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS. CURRENTLY THE GFS SUITE HAS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z/12Z UKMET WHILE THE MORE EASTERN 00Z/12Z ECMWF CAMP CONTINUES TO SEE THE 00Z NAM FOLLOW IT. GIVEN HOW CONSISTENT THE RECENT ECMWF CYCLES HAVE BEEN...WILL UTILIZE ITS SOLUTION AS A GUIDE AND ADD THE 00Z NAM INTO THE MIX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06z still favoring E. Illinois-Central Michigan. Hoosier you look golden buddy. 06z gives you 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So by my count, it's basically the ECMWF/NAM/GEM vs the GFS/UKMET/SREF.Texting with Gino and I said the same thing basically. Still a very tough forecast for the metro with such a sharp cutoff. Listened in on a WPC conference call tonight regarding their internal snowfall guidance and they were concerned how GFS nudged northwest, but also mentioned Euro and NAM were more southeast. Somewhat surprised the UKMET wasn't mentioned on the call since they do mention it in the PMDHMD discussion. Looking at the 00z run of the Euro, I'm a bit worried that the obvious convective contamination when low bombs to 978 mb over far northwest MS has implications in following 12 hours. Seemed funky that the sfc low was shunted east so quickly between 36-42 hours based of track of h5 low. Convection could play a role in this setup to very well keep most of the IL metro out of the heaviest snow. But I'm still wondering if the westward trend of UK and GFS is reasonable because dynamic systems like this tend to track more northwest due to big latent heat release that pumps the ridge out ahead more. Also had looked at 700 mb deformation axis 18z GFS earlier at work and it was hinting at a dual band type setup with southern axis tied to strongest fgen but then a northern axis across heart of metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Texting with Gino and I said the same thing basically. Still a very tough forecast for the metro with such a sharp cutoff. Listened in on a WPC conference call tonight regarding their internal snowfall guidance and they were concerned how GFS nudged northwest, but also mentioned Euro and NAM were more southeast. Somewhat surprised the UKMET wasn't mentioned on the call since they do mention it in the PMDHMD discussion. Looking at the 00z run of the Euro, I'm a bit worried that the obvious convective contamination when low bombs to 978 mb over far northwest MS has implications in following 12 hours. Seemed funky that the sfc low was shunted east so quickly between 36-42 hours based of track of h5 low. Convection could play a role in this setup to very well keep most of the IL metro out of the heaviest snow. But I'm still wondering if the westward trend of UK and GFS is reasonable because dynamic systems like this tend to track more northwest due to big latent heat release that pumps the ridge out ahead more. Also had looked at 700 mb deformation axis 18z GFS earlier at work and it was hinting at a dual band type setup with southern axis tied to strongest fgen but then a northern axis across heart of metro. Yeah, the Euro goes nuts with the sfc low, especially from about the 27-33 hour timeframe. Missed that when I looked at it earlier. We've seen the convection thing break both ways so it's really tough to say whether we get a more western or eastern track. Will be fun watching obs/mesoanalysis as this takes shape down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 06Z NAM coming in stronger, same track so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Was checking out some of the low pressure records down south in LA/AR/MS/TN near where this thing is supposed to track, and they are pretty much low 980s, so could be flirting with all-time records down there should the deeper solutions pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 IWX is going to be issuing a watch for a good chunk of their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 242 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...HEAVY WET WIND DRIVEN SNOW STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ILZ023-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-231645- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0002.160224T1200Z-160225T1000Z/ KANKAKEE-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KANKAKEE...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY... VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...FOWLER 242 AM CST TUE FEB 23 2016 /342 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY STARTING AS A MIX OF RAIN OR SLEET. * MAIN IMPACT...HEAVY WET SNOW WITH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD VARY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES WITH SOME AREAS WITHIN THE WATCH POTENTIALLY SEEING VERY LITTLE SNOW. * OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. WHERE HEAVY SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL CREATE A WIND WHIPPED SNOW THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO MAKING TRAVEL DANGEROUS IF NOT NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 LOT has a watch out now. Surprised at how oddly the NAM accumulates around me and East of here but the 6-8 it has is great EDIT: Ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GRR updated their watch, very strongly worded NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 353 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 MIZ040-045-046-051-052-056>059-064>067-071>074-231700- /O.CON.KGRR.WS.A.0002.160224T1700Z-160226T0000Z/ CLARE-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON- ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARE...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT... GREENVILLE...ALMA...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS... HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN... KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON 353 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SIX TO NINE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE. * HEAVIEST SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * STRONG NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. IMPACTS... * MAJOR TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS POSSIBLE. * SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. * POTENTIAL FOR SCHOOL CLOSURES ON THURSDAY. * THE SNOW AND WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER A PROLONG PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT POWER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * AT THIS TIME...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE QUICKLY IF HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DOES OCCUR...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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