TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 5 miles NW of me flirting with 20" 5 miles SE of me flirting with 4" Wow. image.jpeg What's your point? You'll still get 24 inches..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing, might be nothing but the GFS is about 5 degrees too high on the dewpoint right now. If we stayed drier closer into the precip arriving we will wet bulb the temperature down. Maybe I'm mistaken, but isn't that a common issue with the GFS? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GGEM is way west Owensboro KY @ 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Your elevation will help you out dmc. GGEM - 39 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing, might be nothing but the GFS is about 5 degrees too high on the dewpoint right now. If we stayed drier closer into the precip arriving we will wet bulb the temperature down. Definitely would help if it continues, but it's what, like 36 hours until precip onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Widespread mid 30s under the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 GGEM has it's band of snow further east compared to the 12Z The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Still manage to get this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think I would lean more on the hi-res models for 2m temps as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 00z UKMET doesn't look like it went east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjk254 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Matt Rudkin of WSBT South Bend is a ratios guru and calculus genius. He is starting with 8:1 ratios and says event will end at 12:1. He said average the two and the event should be 10:1 around South Bend. Guess I am using 10:1 ratio maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I think I would lean more on the hi-res models for 2m temps as we get closer. I would too. GEM seems like it is the warmest model. UK MET is close to the GFS. Really bombs out as it approaches Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 0z UKMET.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Surprised how much disagreement there is on qpf/snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 UK much more closer to I had hoped and envisioned for days ago.. Go go chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We have a pretty even split in the guidance right now. Fun fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 UK Met Liquid Can someone post the snow map? First call IMBY right now is 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking like 20mm+ into downtown Chicago on this run which is nearly .80". When comparing 0z to 12z total precip, there was a westward nudge but places in northwest IN remain about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We have a pretty even split in the guidance right now. Fun fun. Which side will the Euro take...the suspense! Two things that make me very cautious of this being an awesome storm for the western tracks.. 1) Theme of the winter for the midwest is for storms to just sort of become strung out and not develop nice and deeply like that shown on the GFS and UK 2) Climatology, especially around this time period, does not favor storms taking a track as shown by these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 UK Met Liquid Can someone post the snow map? First call IMBY right now is 6-8 Do you not realize that you really tick people off with your constant IMBYisms? I mean, most of us want snow, and are looking for it in our yards, but WE DO talk about other places and their possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 This was the 12z UK MET. Orange area moved a bit towards Chicago/Alek this run. 0.50" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's a good storm. Everyone's getting cranky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Do you not realize that you really tick people off with your constant IMBYisms? I mean, most of us want snow, and are looking for it in our yards, but WE DO talk about other places and their possibilities. Everybody else does it any nobody gives a hell, I do it and everyone acts like I just kicked you in the balls. Knock it off and take it to a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I keep looking at the NAM completely shafting Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I didn't realize UK was that wet for Chicago at 12z.. I've only looked at gfs though and was at work all day so missed 12z runs.. Hopefully it even nudges more at 12z.. Need to tack on another 12 inch storm on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Everybody else does it any nobody gives a hell, I do it and everyone acts like I just kicked you in the balls. Knock it off and take it to a PM. Maybe somebody else can explain it to you better than I can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I didn't realize UK was that wet for Chicago at 12z.. I've only looked at gfs though and was at work all day so missed 12z runs.. Hopefully it even nudges more at 12z.. Need to tack on another 12 inch storm on there Another? Chicago hasn't had one this winter. If you're talking the official site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Maybe somebody else can explain it to you better than I can... blackrock, I gotta side with Hillsdale this time. A lot of people make calls for their area. True though that nobody likes the excessively imby types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Another? Chicago hasn't had one this winter. If you're talking the official site Yeah not this winter. But it seems theyve had a nice run of them over the last hand full or so of winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.