Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z UKMET has a track from TX to Syracuse. Where are you seeing the 18z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Where are you seeing the 18z UKMET? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ Click on UKM and go to tropical cyclone #6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Honest question... Why is there stock put in on off 6z/18z runs? Money is spent (albeit little) to run since no new data in ingested, but these off runs never seem close to the final solution and are always extreme from the trends. Search for dtk's posts on the forum and read this publication from NCEP. Basically the gist is that the 6Z/18Z runs are almost always better than the previous 0Z/12Z cycle for the same forecast time for pretty much the entire useful range of the GFS, but especially within the D5 window. But, even for the same lead time the variation in skill between the different cycles is minuscule compared to the difference between different models. Over the past year the AC skill score spread for all cycles regarding 500mb height forecasts at D5 was 0.007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z UKMET has a track from TX to Syracuse. There is an 18z UKMET? And where in Texas? It's kind of a big state. Big different in track from the PH to Syracuse or east central TX to Syracuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 There is an 18z UKMET? And where in Texas? It's kind of a big state. Big different in track from the PH to Syracuse or east central TX to Syracuse Tough to pinpoint exactly. It looks like the low forms near Dallas or somewhere across S OK. Check out the link above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 There's no radiosonde data into the 6/18z runs but a ton of new data from satellites, surface obs, radar, aircraft and probably more that I'm not thinking of. Thanks. I never knew any of that data was modeled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 See if tonight's runs gets msp raising a slight eyebrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Now you already failed big time with your last "storm" thread. Your thread creation privileges should probably be revoked if you fail with this one as well. Nothing ever lasts forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Twinkies Thankfully the pain of this winter won't last forever and in 6 months we'll back to preseason of football and dreaming of that first freeze to show up in model la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GFS will tone it down a bit at least. Should be weaker and east. edit: east, but ends up maybe even deeper than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GFS clobbers western Ohio. Gives me at least a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GFS will tone it down a bit at least. Should be weaker and east. East yes, weaker naso much. This is a Josh special, as if he dreamt up a perfect plaster job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0z GFS clobbers western Ohio. Gives me at least a foot of snow. i was about to say the same thing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 East yes, weaker naso much. This is a Josh special, as if he dreamt up a perfect plaster job. yeah, see my edit. Phase aloft really created a monster late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 yeah, see my edit. Phase aloft really created a monster late. Looking at the pieces, it depends what happens with the first northern stream piece, if it is strong like this run it will go east a bit. If not and it is like the 18z it will go west as long as it phases with the 2nd piece it will be a monster nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wow 00z GFS FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gfs dancing all over last 3 runs as expected though. I like Chicago atm to have the best chance for a warning criteria event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is the gfs showing a triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Is the gfs showing a triple phaser? I think beyond 156 it will. PV coming in hard from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Gonna be breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yeah if this doesn't go poof some lucky section is going to have fun when it goes boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 GEM misses the phase partial phase late for interior EC event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I've always wondered how well a jan78 would be handled by today's models. 5 days out the ukmet would probably explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Ukmet looks like a nice hit for the Ohio contingency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 UKIE takes a 1002mb low in NW AL at 96 and takes it to 994 near Pittsburgh at 120. That's weaker and a bit east of its 12z solution. Location wise, it's similar to the GFS but it's at least 10mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 UKIE takes a 1002mb low in NW AL at 96 and takes it to 994 near Pittsburgh at 120. That's weaker and a bit east of its 12z solution. Yea track looks nice but temps might suck....can't tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Yea track looks nice but temps might suck....can't tell Would be so 2015-16 for two perfect Apps Runner tracks within a week to yield diddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I've always wondered how well a jan78 would be handled by today's models. 5 days out the ukmet would probably explode. I've wondered the same thing. There's a school of thought that the huge atmospheric events like that are more likely to be flagged by the models well in advance, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 UKIE takes a 1002mb low in NW AL at 96 and takes it to 994 near Pittsburgh at 120. That's weaker and a bit east of its 12z solution. Location wise, it's similar to the GFS but it's at least 10mb weaker. East of 12z but more in line with the type of track it was showing prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 0Z GFS would be a blizzard for west. Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.