IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The heavy band goes right through here it looks like. GYY with a mean of 8.6" is one of the highest I can find. Yea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hmmm, looks like the 00z NAM might try to nudge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Noticed that as well. Not sure how that would play into a ZR scenario. Here's a sounding for YYZ during the heaviest precip (12Z NAM). I'd actually consider that a snow sounding. Maybe some slushier flakes but should produce some big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure if the 0z NAM is further south or just slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 i remember better winters when an 850 low like this meant rippage and i'd be super worried about thermals further east Yeah I'm stunned Chicago might not jackpot this one.. I still think this storm could get sucked in some late by the ugn magnet.. Your early 5.5" call I think plays out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Not sure if the 0z NAM is further south or just slower. At hour 42, the precip shield looks notably SE. Sfc low a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well not off to a good start at 0z.. How this might not come together for Chicago again just stuns me. What a frustrating winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 4km has it down to 983 mb in northern Louisiana at 24 hours. That's pretty amazing for that latitude. Might be some convective influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hmmm, looks like the 00z NAM might try to nudge east. Looks like a jackpot run for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Warm upper level air killing Toronto with 00Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 At hour 42, the precip shield looks notably SE. Sfc low a tick SE. Yep, definitely cooler and a bit SE with the precip shield despite the sfc low being only a hair to the east. Haven't checked H5 yet. Suspect the answer lies there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yep, definitely cooler and a bit SE with the precip shield despite the sfc low being only a hair to the east. Haven't checked H5 yet. Suspect the answer lies there. Seems to give more credence to the further SE camp. The 18z GEFS would suggest that the 0z GFS nudges SE to at least a CMH-ERI-BUF type track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Yep, definitely cooler and a bit SE with the precip shield despite the sfc low being only a hair to the east. Haven't checked H5 yet. Suspect the answer lies there. Man this storm is a tough one to forecast. The temperatures are just so marginal. A slight shift in the track of the low could make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Man this storm is a tough one to forecast. The temperatures are just so marginal. A slight shift in the track of the low could make all the difference. Yup. It's all or nothing on this side of things. I'm inclined to think we'll get a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hmmm, looks like the 00z NAM might try to nudge east. But it's also a tad stronger. So everything ended up being the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 0z NAM has some pretty good wrap around into most of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Beautiful CCB/Defo band on the NAM. Even if the front-end stuff ends up warm/sloppy YYZ could still cash in. Verbatim at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 3"+ along and north of I-70 in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Beautiful CCB/Defo band on the NAM. Even if the front-end stuff ends up warm/sloppy YYZ could still cash in. Verbatim at least. Looks like ~4-6" with that band. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Beautiful CCB/Defo band on the NAM. Even if the front-end stuff ends up warm/sloppy YYZ could still cash in. Verbatim at least. I can't recall the last time we had really big flakes plastering down. Honestly, I'd rather awesome snow rates than hours of pixie dust, which seems to be all our "storms"... I'll take the rain if it opens the door to a brutal cake job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looks like ~4-6" with that band. Nice. Very tight gradient per usual. Looks like 6" along the lakeshore to 1'+ by the time you reach the Oak Ridges. Only 3" or so in the Hamilton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Quite a difference between the SREF and the NAM here...00z NAM has about .2 qpf while the 21z SREF mean is a shade over 1" (the ARW camp in particular is pretty jacked). Don't really know what to make of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Quite a difference between the SREF and the NAM here...00z NAM has about .2 qpf while the 21z SREF mean is a shade over 1" (the ARW camp in particular is pretty jacked). Don't really know what to make of that. If the GFS comes in like its 18z run then the NAM is the SE outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Very tight gradient per usual. Looks like 6" along the lakeshore to 1'+ by the time you reach the Oak Ridges. Only 3" or so in the Hamilton area. It's the type of band that will sit over one area for several hours before drifting SE. Euro supports it but the GFS is less bullish(probably due to the further N track which I don't buy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 I can't recall the last time we had really big flakes plastering down. Honestly, I'd rather awesome snow rates than hours of pixie dust, which seems to be all our "storms"... I'll take the rain if it opens the door to a brutal cake job. Feb 6, 2008 comes to mind, the morning portion. That was crazy beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Very tight gradient per usual. Looks like 6" along the lakeshore to 1'+ by the time you reach the Oak Ridges. Only 3" or so in the Hamilton area. What about my area? 8-10" a possibility as per this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It does look like the NAM attempts to transfer the low, which ends up screwing over this area in terms of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 What about my area? 8-10" a possibility as per this run? Instantwxmaps graphics are too low resolution to be certain but that sounds fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 RGEM through 24 looks fairly similar to the 0z NAM valid the same time. Sfc and H5. EDIT: By 36, same location over W TN but a good 5-6mb deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 High temp in the 40's tomorrow and then a storm a day later misses South.. Makes you almost want to join the babies that were crying for spring weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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