Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 500mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 it just means it's a tough call lol...but the euro is snowy. The main issue I see with the 12z Euro is the warm sfc temps(AOA 1c during the warm frontal precip). With an isothermal layer above that (~0c), you would expect mostly rain to be falling as the precip reaches the warmer sfc layer. This is assuming that it isn't too warm with 2m temps. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The main issue I see with the 12z Euro is the warm sfc temps(AOA 1c during the warm frontal precip). With an isothermal layer above that (~0c), you would expect mostly rain to be falling as the precip reaches the warmer sfc layer. This is assuming that it isn't too warm with 2m temps. Thoughts? what time are u looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 what time are u looking at? 18z wed through 6z thurs. Thermals look much more favourable with the backend defo band. Heres the text for reference: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 06Z 24-FEB -0.1 -1.0 1021 75 22 0.00 553 537 WED 12Z 24-FEB 0.7 -0.9 1017 94 42 0.05 554 540 WED 18Z 24-FEB 1.4 -0.1 1012 91 96 0.09 553 544 THU 00Z 25-FEB 1.1 0.0 1003 95 95 0.45 548 546 THU 06Z 25-FEB 1.4 0.2 993 92 93 0.28 540 545 THU 12Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.8 989 90 100 0.18 534 543 THU 18Z 25-FEB -0.2 -5.8 993 80 97 0.34 532 538 FRI 00Z 26-FEB -2.7 -6.7 1001 63 13 0.03 533 532 FRI 06Z 26-FEB -8.3 -9.8 1008 71 2 0.00 529 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 18z wed through 6z thurs. Thermals look much more favourable with the backend defo band. Heres the text for reference: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z FEB22 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 06Z 24-FEB -0.1 -1.0 1021 75 22 0.00 553 537 WED 12Z 24-FEB 0.7 -0.9 1017 94 42 0.05 554 540 WED 18Z 24-FEB 1.4 -0.1 1012 91 96 0.09 553 544 THU 00Z 25-FEB 1.1 0.0 1003 95 95 0.45 548 546 THU 06Z 25-FEB 1.4 0.2 993 92 93 0.28 540 545 THU 12Z 25-FEB 0.8 -2.8 989 90 100 0.18 534 543 THU 18Z 25-FEB -0.2 -5.8 993 80 97 0.34 532 538 FRI 00Z 26-FEB -2.7 -6.7 1001 63 13 0.03 533 532 FRI 06Z 26-FEB -8.3 -9.8 1008 71 2 0.00 529 523 yes, I see that. 925mb temps are -1 to -2...so I'd imagine it fall as snow. Will it be heavy enough to overwhelm a +1 sfc? Quite possible, tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 yes, I see that. 925mb temps are -1 to -2...so I'd imagine it fall as snow. Will it be heavy enough to overwhelm a +1 sfc? Quite possible, tough to say. It's interesting that 925mb temps are considerably colder than 850's and 2m ts. Looks like the warmest layer is between 850-800mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's interesting that 925mb temps are considerably colder than 850's and 2m ts. Looks like the warmest layer is between 850-800mb NW of the city looks prime for sure, really tough call for Toronto proper. My gut says that during the heavy precip in the evening they could drop to near 0 and accumulate quickly. During the day there won't be much because of light precip marginal temps and sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Johnny's preliminary forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Almost becoming indisputable that the defo-zone should deliver a least a couple of inches for Toronto. Real question is the stuff along the warm front. NAM and EURO seem to line up the rain/snow divide right along the 0c 850 isotherm. Haven't seen the soundings but wouldn't be surprised to see the column isothermal. Also, with the occlusion forecasted to possibly happen earlier than previously anticipated, that should limit any mid level warming. Tough forecast. Fractional degrees too cold and the front end could all be rain. Won't make a call yet because of that. I'm wondering if this could end up being a heavy wet snowstorm for Toronto north of the 401. Further north, around Barrie, this could be quite a high impact storm on tree branches and power lines if it's wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's interesting that 925mb temps are considerably colder than 850's and 2m ts. Looks like the warmest layer is between 850-800mb. Noticed that as well. Not sure how that would play into a ZR scenario. Here's a sounding for YYZ during the heaviest precip (12Z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS says a 9" spread in Cook County alone... Can't remember last time a storm gave something that varying.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Whatever model ABC World News was showing had the heaviest snow through St. Louis, Chicago and Grand Rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Whatever model ABC World News was showing had the heaviest snow through St. Louis, Chicago and Grand Rapids ABC World News? Really pulling out everything aren't you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ABC World News? Really pulling out everything aren't you. When the magnet isn't working, you have to have a backup to the backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ABC World News? Really pulling out everything aren't you. They usually show the GFS. lol. It was just a simulated radar image. Funny they were really playing it up and they actually said the storm will impact the East Coast on accident, then he backed up and corrected himself and said the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Waiting for the BBC to weigh in on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Cleveland showing the love. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Whatever model ABC World News was showing had the heaviest snow through St. Louis, Chicago and Grand Rapids lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Geos, come on man! I just spit out half my beer reading that junk about ABC World News. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 lol They made it sound like it was going to be a repeat of the East Coast Blizzard. I was like whatever David Muir. No, I was pointing out the ridiculous nature of the mainstream media by acting like it can't snow this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just saw Telemundo has the jackpot in mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just saw Telemundo has the jackpot in mby. LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Just saw Telemundo has the jackpot in mby. Good one. In all seriousness though. I wonder where they get some of those maps. They probably chose that particular map because it impacts the most amount of people. More people impacted on a map = more viewers. LOT's latest 4" probability graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Don't think this was posted. Heres the 12z EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking forward to tonight .. Wish casting a small nudge to the east on the next set of runs. Just wish the cold was a little more determined to stick around for the entire event. Have a feeling lake Erie will be the warmanista which helps kill the snow totals even more than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 21z SREF mean bumped back up around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 21z SREF mean bumped back up around here. ORD mean jumped up 2" to over 6" now and lost some low members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 ORD mean jumped up 2" to over 6" now and lost some low members The heavy band goes right through here it looks like. GYY with a mean of 8.6" is one of the highest I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 IWX's graphic they posted is 6-8 around here, they always low ball before storms which is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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