TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not trying to take shots at you man, if it came off that way then I apologize. Just simply saying that no one gets excited at advisory events. If it doesn't close schools, it's not worth having. Disagree. Plenty of people get excited about advisory events. They may not be as "exciting" to talk about, but they can often have surprises, replenish snowpacks, and be fun if we get many of them in a row. Not everybody is looking for JUST a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Looking into the wind potential, looks to me like pretty widespread 40 mph gust potential with this one. Areas of higher gusts perhaps near 50 mph certainly possible depending how the system evolves/occludes and affects the wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Disagree. Plenty of people get excited about advisory events. They may not be as "exciting" to talk about, but they can often have surprises, replenish snowpacks, and be fun if we get many of them in a row. Not everybody is looking for JUST a big dog. That is correct but in this sorta setup I think you wanna expierence something more then a few inches. That's what I think a lot people is getting at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 SREF continues its winter trend of being a lagging indicator, major drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That is correct but in this sorta setup I think you wanna expierence something more then a few inches. That's what I think a lot people is getting at here. Oh, ok. I see what you're saying. Yeah, that is tough to happen this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 SREF continues its winter trend of being a lagging indicator, major drops Mean dropped to about 6" here. Can't believe there's one clown member spitting out 3" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Re: 15z SREF, not sure how much of the decrease has to do with a southward shift and how much has to do with losing some super juiced/north members. For instance, the mean snowfall actually went down at LAF compared to the last run. Checking some other sites near the eastern edge of the better snow, looks like some modest increases compared to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gonna be right on the border for thermal issues for me at this point. Averaging out most of the 12Z models looks like potential 3-5 with another GFS 6 inch kicker a week later in fantasy land lol. Any movement NW and I'm back into slop mudfest, which of course I just love... NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gonna be right on the border for thermal issues for me at this point. Averaging out most of the 12Z models looks like potential 3-5 with another GFS 6 inch kicker a week later in fantasy land lol. Any movement NW and I'm back into slop mudfest, which of course I just love... NOT! I feel your pain being right on the edge as well. It really is a shame to see so much precipitation with this event and the cold air lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 First watch post by NWS Gaylord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 First watch post by NWS Gaylord In theory, that may lead toward offices farther south pulling the trigger (earlier start time) even with less than ideal confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With much respect for the models, not too much in the way of extreme track differences which is refreshingly nice.. Probably why APX posted the watch 48 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised if GRR and DTX posted them too or waited til the night shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 18z NAM should bring precip farther north to join the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NWS Detroit has a watch out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 With much respect for the models, not too much in the way of extreme track differences which is refreshingly nice.. Probably why APX posted the watch 48 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised if GRR and DTX posted them too or waited til the night shift. dtx just issued winter storm watches. 6 to 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 18z NAM should bring precip farther north to join the others. Yep I think your right looks like it'll be a pretty decent improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 dtx just issued winter storm watches. 6 to 10 inches ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GRR doing it as well .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)ISSUED AT 330 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL HOURS OF WET HEAVY SNOWCOMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS COMBINATION COULDLEAD TO TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS... SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AND SCHOOLCLOSURES ON THURSDAY.BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT A BANDOF HEAVY WET SNOW OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL IMPACT AT LEAST A PORTIONOF LOWER MICHIGAN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW ON EXACTPLACEMENT OF THAT HEAVY SNOW AXIS. CURRENT CONSENSUS IS FROM SOUTHCENTRAL LWR MI INTO THE THUMB AREA ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLEMEMBERS HAVE WIGGLED EITHER SIDE OF THIS AXIS OVER THE LAST FEWRUNS.ANOTHER MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS ONWEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 40.THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IS PRECIPITATION REMAINING A MIX OF RAINAND SNOW... AND PERHAPS EVEN ALL RAIN... MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFOREFINALLY CHANGING COMPLETELY OVER TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVENING.PRECIPITATION RATES WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN P-TYPE ON WEDNESDAY ANDTHE HEAVIEST RATES MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THEUPPER LOW APPROACHES. IF RATES ARE TOO LIGHT... WE MAY HAVE LITTLETO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION UNTIL AFTER 00Z THUR. THIS POSSIBILITY...COMBINED WITH LIKELIHOOD OF COMPACTION... MAY HOLD STORM TOTALS DOWNBELOW THE HIGHER NUMBERS NEAR A FOOT THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE ISSUGGESTING..LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)ISSUED AT 330 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016THE WINTER STORM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE NEARBUFFALO BY 12 THURSDAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHOULD BEOVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AT THISPOINT AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE THURSDAY ASTHE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL HAVE FALLEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 dtx just issued winter storm watches. 6 to 10 inches Wondering what LOT will do. Earlier RC mentioned that if it were him, he would hold off. Besides marginal temps, LOT has the added complication of the precip gradient. If it were me, I'd go with a watch in the southeastern most Illinois counties in their cwa as well as the northwest Indiana counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 i remember better winters when an 850 low like this meant rippage and i'd be super worried about thermals further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 LAF looking pretty good...they can't afford much of a north shift though. Been keeping my mouth shut in an effort to not jinx it. Looking forward to 33 and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 IWX holding off it looks like, though the amounts they are going with would be at/near warning criteria in some of their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Been keeping my mouth shut in an effort to not jinx it. Looking forward to 33 and rain... Tim suffered through plenty of those in all his years there...me too to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NWS Chicago said no watch yet. IWX still may issue one. I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Call this the snow monster taking a bite out of northern Indiana/southwest Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 garbageness of the airmass super evident on the hi-res NAM EDIT: ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM snowfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 4 km clobbers the northwestern tier of IN. 12 km has the axis farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 A track over south central ohio is usually pretty good for nw ohio.........not this time lol. The cold air doesn't wrap in until late. look at the ULL bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 4 km Kuchera map has a foot in Valpo and about an inch at ORD. Off the top of my head, can't remember that kind of spread between ORD and northwest Indiana in a synoptic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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