HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro is amped to hell, I can't wait to see the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 SREF have been lagging indicators pretty bad this year but yeah, they look good at ORD too with tons of big dogs and only a couple clunkers sinking the mean but again, they have been useless this winter IMBY I think in general SREFS are useless. I've been following them with every storm this year and they haven't hit well on any of them. I tossed them completely from usage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 6-8" from ScMi to the thumb. Detroit is around 4". Some areas along the water in metro Detroit stays well below 4". Could be a lot more rain then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 TWC just upped me to 8-13, gotta love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think the SREF are being too bold. 7" mean here - that's too much of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Ratios probably won't be 10:1, so .6 would probably be around 4-5". Which would be an advisory event. I mean I know you get excited even with dustings, but yeah, I think a good majority here don't care for advisory events. If it were up to me, I'd rather not deal with it. Dont start taking shots at me. You and a few others tend to do that when i state a fact. I forgot how downhill weather boards have gotten. It is absolutely ridiculous that all I did was state the gfs was not nearly all rain for dtw as was stated and this crap started. I didn't say a single word about being excited for anything or wanting anything or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 LAF looking pretty good...they can't afford much of a north shift though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 JMA, UKMET, NOGAPS, SREF....the short bus is full lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 TWC just upped me to 8-13, gotta love that. We're all so happy for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I have like 80" of SREF snow this winter I guess if there is one bright spot for us this winter it's the models really haven't been overly cruel to us wrt digital fantasy snow... ...DT OTOH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 LAF looking pretty good...they can't afford much of a north shift though. I like your position in this actually. These events this winter have shifted 20-30 miles NW last minute pretty much each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 We're all so happy for you Watch him get dry slotted. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EUROsnowfall_0222.png I think the SREF are being too bold. 7" mean here - that's too much of a stretch. much better then last nights run for the SE half of ILX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Saw the RPM - it wasn't handling the temperatures too well. Max it showed was 6" in the Thumb of MI. Only 2-3" across NW IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 EUROsnowfall_0222.png I think the SREF are being too bold. 7" mean here - that's too much of a stretch. Hey Geos can you post the more easterly map of that. I'm intrigued by all those pinks and fuchsias cascading near YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I like your position in this actually. These events this winter have shifted 20-30 miles NW last minute pretty much each time. I have some cautious optimism for several inches but wide range of potential outcomes. SREF mean >8" here is impressive given that there are several members that miss/skirt by to the south, but I guess that's what happens when a handful of members have 18+. Should see it tighten up over the next few runs and hopefully won't drop that mean value too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Saw the RPM - it wasn't handling the temperatures too well. Max it showed was 6" in the Thumb of MI. Only 2-3" across NW IN. sounds believable, it's going to be warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 sounds believable, it's going to be warm That isn't believable and the RPM is a really bad model that shouldn't be used anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hey Geos can you post the more easterly map of that. I'm intrigued by all those pinks and fuchsias descending near YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 ... Woah. I think there's no way, but nice to look at. Probably some freezing precip in those amounts. Plus ratios ain't gonna be 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 BLIZZARD WARNING IN HILLSDALE, MICHIGAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Thanks Dan. Checked the chronology on wundermap. Looks like we get a front-end thump, then rain, then a decent shot with the defo zone as the storm wraps up. The further north, the less intrusive the changeover to rain is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hey Geos can you post the more easterly map of that. I'm intrigued by all those pinks and fuchsias descending near YYZ. I didn't get that map from the source. I'll post it if I see it pop up. --- RPM is pretty bad. Be mindful: The right side of the EURO snow band will have ratios lower than 10:1 for sure. It snows around 33-34° in those areas nearest to the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 ... Woah. I think there's no way, but nice to look at. Probably some freezing precip in those amounts. Plus ratios ain't gonna be 10:1. Good point. Is that a wxbell map? Could be incorporating PL into those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO actually takes the low through NW PA in the intrahours between 48 and 72, so that's definitely on the eastern side of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO actually takes the low through PA in the intrahours between 48 and 72, so that's definitely on the eastern side of solutions. It looks like it occludes earlier which is probably why it's the farthest east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 BLIZZARD WARNING IN HILLSDALE, MICHIGAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! There's won't be any pingers with this storm - either rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 2 or 3 of the CIPS analog events are from April. I guess that's not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Dont start taking shots at me. You and a few others tend to do that when i state a fact. I forgot how downhill weather boards have gotten. It is absolutely ridiculous that all I did was state the gfs was not nearly all rain for dtw as was stated and this crap started. I didn't say a single word about being excited for anything or wanting anything or whatever. Not trying to take shots at you man, if it came off that way then I apologize. Just simply saying that no one gets excited at advisory events. If it doesn't close schools, it's not worth having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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