HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Pretty much everything except the GFS is greater than 6 inches here, we just gotta see the Euro. I'll take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Over/under for DTW set at 4.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Was thinking about that January fail storm a little while ago...the one where it looked like there was going to be a changeover to significant snow but the changeover was delayed and snow amounts were pretty minor. Step 1 is to not have a delayed changeover...if that happens then hope that low level temps will respond enough to allow for big amounts. I think this time around temps will be a bit colder, especially in your area and in the city. I don't see anything indicating temps in the high 30s/40. I remember that event - I ended getting more than forecast. WGN going with "likely" snow for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Here are the individual 9z SREF member total precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It'll be interesting to see how convection in the southeast affects the track and potency of the system. Definitely an element in play when NOWcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I have like 80" of SREF snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think this time around temps will be a bit colder, especially in your area and in the city. I don't see anything indicating temps in the high 30s/40. I remember that event - I ended getting more than forecast. WGN going with "likely" snow for Wednesday. Good point about it probably starting cooler this time. I remember being in the low 40s then. For MBY, not terribly concerned about rain and I think we could be all snow. More of a problem/question mark farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 It'll be interesting to see how convection in the southeast affects the track and potency of the system. Definitely an element in play when NOWcasting. That played a part in the storm from last week. Big difference this time is that this storm is so much more dynamical aloft. I think it'll be less prone to being affected by convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 JMA, UKMET, NOGAPS, SREF....the short bus is full It's come to this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z suite of storm tracks. Notice the start of the left turn of the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Cant wait to read a 100 GEOS post about reasons its coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Cant wait to read a 100 GEOS post about reasons its coming NW.lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Cant wait to read a 100 GEOS post about reasons its coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Over/under for DTW set at 4.2" Over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm betting the ECMWF comes west to some degree based on what it looks like at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I've changed gears for this storm. I'm hoping for a slower/more amped solution in the hopes that we can get a few hundred J/KG of CAPE into far SE OH ahead of the front on Wednesday to take advantage of what looks like pretty good shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Over/under for DTW set at 4.2" under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO low is in about the spot as the 12z run yesterday - near Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 JMA, UKMET, NOGAPS, SREF....the short bus is full I heard the Nigerian model has you in the bullseye, but you need to send $50,000 to a PO Box before the model output can be viewable on your PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Cant wait to read a 100 GEOS post about reasons its coming NW. Too early for that. I will say the +NAO will keep in west of the App. Mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Too early for that. I will say the +NAO will keep in west of the App. Mountains. way to go out on a limb with the bold call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I heard the Nigerian model has you in the bullseye, but you need to send $50,000 to a PO Box before the model output can be viewable on your PC. B+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I have like 80" of SREF snow this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro has the same track as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro has the same track as last night. locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 1/2" of precip gets about as far northwest as Hoosier on the new Euro. Steep drop off northwest of that. 0.04" up by Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 1/2" of precip gets about as far northwest as Hoosier on the new Euro. Steep drop off northwest of that. 0.04" up by Geos. model consensus on this general idea is excellent right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 way to go out on a limb with the bold call Need to get to the 0z runs tonight and see more high resolution models get in range. Early negative tilt would definitely help. Probably what the UK MET is doing. I do remember that model was the first to see the last minute NW shift on the 2/2 storm within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That played a part in the storm from last week. Big difference this time is that this storm is so much more dynamical aloft. I think it'll be less prone to being affected by convection. I still think convection will play a role and pull the low east a bit. There is a MDT risk for severe weather down south tomorrow so as dynamic as this system is, the severe potential is also going sky high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 1/2" of precip gets about as far northwest as Hoosier on the new Euro. Steep drop off northwest of that. 0.04" up by Geos. 00z run was essentially a shutout here so progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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