Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM Hoiser special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM is a good spread the wealth Pretty much GGEM/RGEM/NAM vs GFS right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 STL (esp east) up through northwest IN gets crushed on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM is a good spread the wealth Pretty much GGEM/RGEM/NAM vs GFS right now Might depend on where you're talking about. In terms of precip placement, NAM would seem to be a southeast outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not ready to even make a first guess at this point. Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to. Could really make an argument either way (nw or se). On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY. Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group. SREF have been lagging indicators pretty bad this year but yeah, they look good at ORD too with tons of big dogs and only a couple clunkers sinking the mean but again, they have been useless this winter IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z hi-res goin' south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 East ticks with the 0z/6z runs may have been a hiccup. That UKIE run looks nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM is a good spread the wealth Pretty much GGEM/RGEM/NAM vs GFS right now Not sure I'd call that spread the wealth.... Try to be a bit more accurate with your model summations. Here's the 12 GGEM snowfall/frozen precip map. Still seems to be a pretty narrow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hoosier, stop it!!! I will not get sucked back in. I will not get sucked back in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Going to be so close here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Can someone post a UKIE map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not sure I'd call that spread the wealth.... Try to be a bit more accurate with your model summations. Here's the 12 GGEM snowfall/frozen precip map. Still seems to be a pretty narrow swath. That's a pretty good "spread the wealth" for the eastern half of the subforum. "Wealth" as in a couple of inches, and "greed" through a strip of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Can someone post a UKIE map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM is a good spread the wealth Pretty much GGEM/RGEM/NAM vs GFS right now Huh? The GGEM shows 6" in southern MI and the NAM shows 12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm definitely sucked in for now, especially after seeing the UKMET above. If anyone did not see, the EURO para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 UKMET has a 985 low over western Ohio. edit: didn't see the UKMET was already posted. Oops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No one cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill.Lol. All I said was 5" is not a non-event. Gfs shows 0.60" qpf falling as pure snow at dtw, so that is not showing almost all rain for Detroit as you said. For people who only read the board and don't see model output it's misleading. I didn't say a word about who cares or what not. But since you brought it up, I'll tell you one thing, I've been on weather boards almost 14 years. Every year by mid Feb lots of people claim they do not care for snow unless it's a huge event. And numerous small and run of the mill events have shown that some who say that are telling the truth...and some are lying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That's a pretty good "spread the wealth" for the eastern half of the subforum. "Wealth" as in a couple of inches, and "greed" through a strip of Michigan. Some winter it is if we're calling this a spread the wealth storm. Remember those (troptidbits and Wxbell) snowfall maps use an algorithm to include all frozen precip as 'snow' so the actually snow band would be even narrower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Well there's certainly been a trend west on the 12z guidance. We'll see what the Euro shows. Razor thin edge here in the LOT CWA, so very tough forecast for our forecasters and marginal thermal profile. At this point if I were making the call on a Watch or not with afternoon issuance, I'd lean against one because confidence is lower than I'd want it to be, even in southeast CWA. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Probability of 4" and 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Lol. All I said was 5" is not a non-event. Gfs shows 0.60" qpf falling as pure snow at dtw, so that is not showing almost all rain for Detroit as you said. For people who only read the board and don't see model output it's misleading. I didn't say a word about who cares or what not. But since you brought it up, I'll tell you one thing, I've been on weather boards almost 14 years. Every year by mid Feb lots of people claim they do not care for snow unless it's a huge event. And numerous small and run of the mill events have shown that some who say that are telling the truth...and some are lying Ratios probably won't be 10:1, so .6 would probably be around 4-5". Which would be an advisory event. I mean I know you get excited even with dustings, but yeah, I think a good majority here don't care for advisory events. If it were up to me, I'd rather not deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Well there's certainly been a trend west on the 12z guidance. We'll see what the Euro shows. Razor thin edge here in the LOT CWA, so very tough forecast for our forecasters and marginal thermal profile. At this point if I were making the call on a Watch or not with afternoon issuance, I'd lean against one because confidence is lower than I'd want it to be, even in southeast CWA. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Was thinking about that January fail storm a little while ago...the one where it looked like there was going to be a changeover to significant snow but the changeover was delayed and snow amounts were pretty minor. Step 1 is to not have a delayed changeover...if that happens then hope that low level temps will respond enough to allow for big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z GEFS mean continues to run about 50-70 miles east of the OP. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z GEFS mean continues to run about 50-70 miles east of the OP. FWIW. this one is over for those hoping for a NW shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 this one is over for those hoping for a NW shift JMA hammers you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 this one is over for those hoping for a NW shift Alek 5.5" call in jeopardy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 this one is over for those hoping for a NW shift I dunno. There's definitely been a westward "tick" at least with the 12z suite. Problem is the lack of a clear trend (except for losing the EC solutions from 2 days ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 JMA hammers you JMA, UKMET, NOGAPS, SREF....the short bus is full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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