cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Northwest IL on the outside looking in as usual, but it's interesting to watch the run to run changes on the guidance. Looks like another POS thread-the-needle type event that is stressful to track if you think your area has a chance to cash in. Hopefully next winter delivers some legit spread-the-wealth type storm systems. This winter has been pretty terrible in that regard. Good luck to those still in the hunt, and congrats to those who get to enjoy the 75-140 mile wide swath of legit warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Haha, guys. I am NOT a fan of spring...least favorite season of the year...so the fact that I'm wishing for it to just start is a reminder of how painful this winter has been. Oh my word, what a craphole of a winter. Enjoy your snowstorm, Hillsdale! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Northwest IL on the outside looking in as usual, but it's interesting to watch the run to run changes on the guidance. Looks like another POS thread-the-needle type event that is stressful to track if you think your area has a chance to cash in. Hopefully next winter delivers some legit spread-the-wealth type storm systems. This winter has been pretty terrible in that regard. Good luck to those still in the hunt, and congrats to those who get to enjoy the 75-140 mile wide swath of legit warning criteria snowfall. Yes, yes, and yes! You've got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Significant changes on the 06z NAM. Best snows now are from NE Indiana to Detroit to Toronto (6-14") as the low tracks along the OH river into Western NY. NW Indiana, Chicago and much of SW Michigan are completely shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Significant changes on the 06z NAM. Best snows now are from NE Indiana to Detroit to Toronto (6-14") as the low tracks along the OH river into Western NY. NW Indiana, Chicago and much of SW Michigan are completely shut out. I can't believe we may be reeling this back in. I would have bet my life we were toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 The recent eastward readjustment seems to coincide with the partial RAOB sampling of the southern stream energy, which occurred at 0z. Perhaps it's not as strong as the satellite imagery was suggesting? Anyway...EE rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Can't believe I've been up all night analyzing the most recent model trends, and familiarizing myself with the region, in case this system actually delivers as a viable chase subject. All that aside, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a little more voliotility with subsequent model runs given the significant shifts the past 48 hours. I'll have more faith once better sampling data is incorporated in the 12z and 00z runs later today. Regardless, it promises to be another interesting and stressful day of model watching and analysis for many. Gotta get a little sleep. Have a great Monday, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The recent eastward readjustment seems to coincide with the partial RAOB sampling of the southern stream energy, which occurred at 0z. Perhaps it's not as strong as the satellite imagery was suggesting? Anyway...EE rule in effect It's still probably best to wait until full sampling takes place tonight. The models in the past have produced some of most wonky solutions during periods of only partial sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 06z GFS also nudged SE again and is colder. Painfully close to being all snow here. It shows ~2" of precip at DTW, but only ~0.40" is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Izzi with a nice discussion in the LOT AFD. Pretty much can say weaker solutions trend southeast, stronger northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 18z GFS basically obliterates my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The recent eastward readjustment seems to coincide with the partial RAOB sampling of the southern stream energy, which occurred at 0z. Perhaps it's not as strong as the satellite imagery was suggesting? Anyway...EE rule in effect Also that northern stream kicker may be assisting as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The largest EPS cluster by far takes the low near CLE and then northeast to the ROC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The largest EPS cluster by far takes the low near CLE and then northeast to the ROC area. Speaking of cluster Time to punt this mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Didn't think the extreme NW runs would hold. Models were picking up on a big dog but should correct now that we have real data to interpolate the phase properly. Still like where I'm sitting... about 10 miles southeast of 12"+ according to the 00Z Euro. Suspect the GFS will come more on line to the SE as well. A sneaky coup by the GGEM which everyone said was playing catch up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Didn't think the extreme NW runs would hold. Models were picking up on a big dog but should correct now that we have real data to interpolate the phase properly. Still like where I'm sitting... about 10 miles southeast of 12"+ according to the 00Z Euro. Suspect the GFS will come more on line to the SE as well. A sneaky coup by the GGEM which everyone said was playing catch up? Given it had the low in Southern New Jersey on the previous 00Z run, I would say it has been playing catchup. It has yet to have any run-to-run consistency with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Speaking of cluster Time to punt this mess Mess? Think it maybe weaker than initial thoughts but still going to give some in the sub forum a decent plastering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I can't believe we may be reeling this back in. I would have bet my life we were toast. Colour me surprised. However, I would not be surprised to see this trend back further west. I've learned not to get my hopes up after 1 run. We should have a much better idea of the track come tomorrow morning. Then those in its path can start worrying about the borderline thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Looking like the thumb could be seeing their second 12" 'er in a couple weeks time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 12z NAM wrecks SE Michigan, except those east of the glacier ridge. Even those on the east should get a healthy dose of snow... Just might see rain a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Looks like a foot or more MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 12z NAM wrecks SE Michigan, except those east of the glacier ridge. Even those on the east should get a healthy dose of snow... Just might see rain a bit longer. There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Would one of you be able to post the snowfall map from the 12z nam? There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Would one of you be able to post the snowfall map from the 12z nam? It was a tight cut off up that way. Maybe 5-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM very windy as well. We might get a good chunk of blowing and drifting wet snow/power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Mess? Think it maybe weaker than initial thoughts but still going to give some in the sub forum a decent plastering. Mess of a winter I wouldn't call the 8" of snow in November last year and the 62 we hit this past Saturday a decent winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Good luck to everyone on the storm, hope at least some of you cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Would one of you be able to post the snowfall map from the 12z nam? Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward. NAM is west/warmer compared to the 06z run (Cleveland vs. Erie, PA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Kind of lost in this is that the models have backed off the Arctic outbreak late weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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