buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 About an hour ago I watched a Bernie Rayno accuwx video in which he said the furthest west this storm could go is the western slopes of the apps. Said he was 100% certain it wouldn't cut west of that and more confident it would be a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 About an hour ago I watched a Bernie Rayno accuwx video in which he said the furthest west this storm could go is the western slopes of the apps. Said he was 100% certain it wouldn't cut west of that and more confident it would be a coastal. that's priceless lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Quite the range of "outcomes" by all 4 GFS runs. normally I would just laugh at the gfs, but it does have support from the para euro, (which is suppose to be pretty good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'll take both of those runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That Euro just made me smile uncontrollablly. Get back to us with how disappointed you are when it doesn't work out. That's only fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The 18Z GFS is a little too warm in these areas great for Grand Rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 i'm noticing that the threat of this possibly going down the drain doesn't carry nearly as much sting or disappointment on a warm day like today in late Feb. vs. in the dead of winter. We're basically tracking a cement bomb with terrible thermals and a very narrow winners alley. (don't get me wrong, I'd love to be in that alley but if not.....oh well still entertaining to see how this turns out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Obviously things are in motion here and nobody should get too bogged down in any one model solution. I will say from imby perspective I'd like the models to trend stronger with that lead clipper for Sunday-Monday. The trend has been to weaken it into almost nothing and this allows heights to rapidly rebuild along the EC. A stronger clipper could also act as a semi-block which would lock in more cold air, increasing the possibility of front-end wintry precip. Some of the earlier GEFs members showed a bit more of a banana high signature, even with a westerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'm at the point where I just would rather have the rain. The few storms & lake effect have been fun to watch, but I'm sick of snow blowing and shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GEM ensemble mean has a 1007-1009mb low scooting harmlessly OTS off the SC coast. This is not the determinisitic GEM, but its ensemble mean. What a POS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GEM ensemble mean has a 1007-1009mb low scooting harmlessly OTS off the SC coast. This is not the determinisitic GEM, but its ensemble mean. What a POS model. The one time everyone else is amplified the GEM is flat. Might as well call it the opposite model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I don't think we will have a handle on this until Monday evening runs when that piece of energy gets on shore. You can see on latest GFS how it phases with the northern piece. Thus we see the cyclogenesis and an amped powerful system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Honest question... Why is there stock put in on off 6z/18z runs? Money is spent (albeit little) to run since no new data in ingested, but these off runs never seem close to the final solution and are always extreme from the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The one time everyone else is amplified the GEM is flat. Might as well call it the opposite model. Maybe it's perception but I'm not sure why AFDs seem to give more weight to the GEM than say the UKIE. Latter is a superior model imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Don't have access to the full suite of members, but the 18z OP GFS appears to be now on the far western flank of its ensembles. There are quite a few wound up members in the 18z GEFs, but except for one that I can see, not quite to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Honest question... Why is there stock put in on off 6z/18z runs? Money is spent (albeit little) to run since no new data in ingested, but these off runs never seem close to the final solution and are always extreme from the trends. Why do people still think "off runs" are a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe it's perception but I'm not sure why AFDs seem to give more weight to the GEM than say the UKIE. Latter is a superior model imo. In terms of accuracy overall isn't it Euro/UKIE/GFS/GGEM/NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe it's perception but I'm not sure why AFDs seem to give more weight to the GEM than say the UKIE. Latter is a superior model imo. Depends on the situation, the GEM does well with northern stream clipper stuff, but full latitudinal systems, the GEM falls on its face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Don't have access to the full suite of members, but the 18z OP GFS appears to be now on the far western flank of its ensembles. There are quite a few wound up members in the 18z GEFs, but except for one that I can see, not quite to that extent. Looks like the eps mean with a low over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 In terms of accuracy overall isn't it Euro/UKIE/GFS/GGEM/NAM? I dunno. Sounds right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks like the eps mean with a low over nyc The ensemble mean may have shifted SE a bit from the 12z run. Lots to be worked out. See you guys for the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The ensemble mean may have shifted SE a bit from the 12z run. Lots to be worked out. See you guys for the 0z suite. Ya it did. I wonder what kind of an impact the first low has on the second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Why do people still think "off runs" are a thing? By "off" I meant non 0z/12z run. Off meaning no new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 In terms of accuracy overall isn't it Euro/UKIE/GFS/GGEM/NAM? I'd probably swap GFS and Ukie around but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 The ensemble mean may have shifted SE a bit from the 12z run. Lots to be worked out. See you guys for the 0z suite. That has to be with the first wave, because there is no way it is with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 By "off" I meant non 0z/12z run. Off meaning no new data.There's no radiosonde data into the 6/18z runs but a ton of new data from satellites, surface obs, radar, aircraft and probably more that I'm not thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'd probably swap GFS and Ukie around but yeah.Per hemispheric verification stats UK is usually a bit ahead of the GFS. Keep in mind we only get 24-hourly UK data more than 3 days out and just sfc/500mb plots, and even closer in I'm sure that data on Meteocentre is interpolated to a lower resolution grid. Sort of like what Euro data was like 8 or 10 years ago unless you had the hookup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Sorry guys...I thought one of the OH crew would have jumped on starting a thread already. Anyway the discussion was getting bifurcated so I thought I'd act. With my track record for imby....either the OV or the western Lakes will get hit pretty hard. Anyways discuss... Now you already failed big time with your last "storm" thread. Your thread creation privileges should probably be revoked if you fail with this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z UKMET has a track from TX to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z UKMET has a track from TX to Syracuse. I would imagine that is a good track for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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