HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This is gonna be a Southern MI (except maybe just off lake MI), Northern IN, Northern OH and Canada special if the Ensembles get their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 There's one camp of ensembles that take the low to Erie, PA, and another camp that takes it even SE of Pittsburgh. The low itself isn't necessarily weaker though (many of the ensemble members are stronger than the OP). Very intrigued by some of the low tracks the ensembles are showing. Too early to call but once partial sampling happens tomorrow we will know if there is in credence in these solutions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Very intrigued by some of the low tracks the ensembles are showing. Too early to call but once partial sampling happens tomorrow we will know if there is in credence in these solutions.... And it's just one set of ensemble runs. Certainly not enough to signal a trend. I think the most interesting aspect of the 00z GFS ensembles is, contrary to what some said earlier, the low was actually just as stronger (or stronger on a lot of the individual members) despite the further SE track. Overall, a consensus of a sub-990mb low to Cleveland or Sandusky, OH has been reached for now, with a swath of heavy snow from STL to Saginaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 And it's just one set of ensemble runs. Certainly not enough to signal a trend. Overall, a consensus of a sub-990mb low to Cleveland or Sandusky, OH has been reached for now, with a swath of heavy snow from STL to Saginaw. Agree... I would be surprised as hell if a dramatic east shift say 100 miles were to actually occur at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I can't see this storm going too far east like the GEFS mean. There is no real NAO blocking in place. First guess is the EURO will hold its ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm just gonna punt this one. 00z GEFS just atrocious. Good luck to those who get plastered. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I'm going to just accept that my area will most likely get miss too, considering my theory of synoptic storms avoiding this zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm not sure where you're getting the "shifting west with each run" idea from. Comparing the 12z and 00z run, the track is the same. However, the 00z run is definitely stronger. Snow swath shifted west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Snow swath shifted west. Ok, I got it now. I couldn't tell if that's what you meant in your original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 EURO slightly east of it's position on the last 0z run, but quite a bit stronger. Vs. last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro coming in very strong... Already 988 over Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Odd it comes in weaker at 72hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Odd it comes in weaker at 72hrs... Yeah that is weird. I thought it was going to continue to bomb out and cut through IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah that is weird. I thought it was going to continue to bomb out and cut through IN. It probably did the same thing the 18z NAM did, with the rapid deepening and faster occlusion (thus somewhat weaker solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah that is weird. I thought it was going to continue to bomb out and cut through IN. Occludes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It probably did the same thing the 18z NAM did, with the rapid deepening and faster occlusion (thus somewhat weaker solution). Does appear at first glance temp profiles are slightly better vs. last nights 0z run as a result.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does appear at first glance temp profiles are slightly better vs. last nights 0z run as a result.... They are, Southern MI does well as does Indiana down toward STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 They are, Southern MI does well as does Indiana down toward STL If the storm does indeed show a tendency to occlude this could lead to some cooler air filling in under the warmer layers... Could this favor freezing rain for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If the storm does indeed show a tendency to occlude this could lead to some cooler air filling in under the warmer layers... Could this favor freezing rain for anyone? No, it's going to be either rain, snow, or wet snow. Highest chance for freezing rain/ice is out ahead of the system as the warm air aloft overrides the cooler air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If the storm does indeed show a tendency to occlude this could lead to some cooler air filling in under the warmer layers... Could this favor freezing rain for anyone? You would need a cold shallow Arctic air mass out ahead of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 They are, Southern MI does well as does Indiana down toward STL are we still looking at a 6-12" band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does anyone have a EURO snowfall map by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does anyone have a EURO snowfall map by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does anyone have a EURO snowfall map by chance? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Oh, that EURO map....I am biting my tongue and keeping the expletives in my head...just let spring start already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Oh, that EURO map....I am biting my tongue and keeping the expletives in my head...just let spring start already here. Warm fronts > Snow. Just keep telling yourself that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Oh, that EURO map....I am biting my tongue and keeping the expletives in my head...just let spring start already here. if it makes you feel any better, I would gladly let you have the 4-7" the EURO gives us. I ain't got time for that basic crap, especially as we're now headed into March. It's the possibly of missing out on the big dog amounts the 00z and 12z run showed for you guys that scares me. Watching that happen and then having to deal with yet another Siberian air outbreak would be painful. At least after the November snowstorm, there was no blast of Siberian cold in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Oh, that EURO map....I am biting my tongue and keeping the expletives in my head...just let spring start already here. We can reel this one in. I haven't had my full fix out snow yet. It's the most westward solutions that bring in the biggest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Sizable eastward shift with the snowband on the 00z ECMWF compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That 00z EURO is ugly low end warning criteria was hoping someone in the region would cash in with a nice 6-12" band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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