Thundersnow12 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This is far from resolved for one and secondly there is no need to spike to ball if your area gets hit over another. That isn't good forum etiquette. I really don't get why people respond to his posts or read them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 lol @ the model difference in southwest Missouri. The NAM tries to spit out darn near 2 feet with nothing on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 10:1 Ratios: Kuchera Is what the GFS is doing caused by Lake influence like in November? Also this run has winds roaring in Michigan, could cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think most of us in Ohio would take the GFS. Not a ton but gives 3-5" of wraparound snow across Central OH. Think it's the only model showing anything significant in Ohio as of now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I might be biased but I'm liking my area in northwest IN at this point. You said you want a 12" blizzard. I don't know if the best snows end up here but areas near lake Michigan will be favored for some of the strongest winds with the long fetch down the lake. Just noticed I missed your post, earlier. Thanks for the input and taking time to share it. I've benefited so much from these forums when preparing for past intercepts. No one knows the area like those of you who live there and have experienced past storms in that region. For the reasoning you mentioned, I'll be inclined to choose a location closest to the Lakes for the strongest winds. Gotta get the system to actually materialize first, naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 00z UKMET seems like it has a NAM type track, but stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 00z UKMET seems like it has a NAM type track, but stronger.Looks like a bump NW from 12z run. Track seems like it's near/maybe just east of EVV. And strongest of 00z op models so far at that latitude, as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM rakes Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEM coming west, but on the warm side. Pretty good for eastern Michigan though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 00z GEM and GFS are nearly identical in terms of track /strength, but pretty notable differences in the thermals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM rakes Detroit Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1uo9HDTrbKU&feature=share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEM coming west, but on the warm side. Sfc temps are warm on there south of MI..more like mid 30s instead of low 30s. In some ways you can see the fragility of the setup when looking at 2m temp maps. Going to be very important to get into the zone where dynamic cooling can work its magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1uo9HDTrbKU&feature=share Well, there we go -- the EFG rule. Euro-Frankie-GEM. It's on like Donkey Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The GEM seems so much more west to east based with the track of snow, rather than South to North like the GFS and EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1uo9HDTrbKU&feature=share and the Super Hype begins.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12-16" of brutal cement (talking 6:1 ratio stuff) on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1uo9HDTrbKU&feature=share lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Sfc temps are warm on there south of MI..more like mid 30s instead of low 30s. In some ways you can see the fragility of the setup when looking at 2m temp maps. Going to be very important to get into the zone where dynamic cooling can work its magic. Definitely a valid concern about this setup. The 12/24/14 epic bust came to my mind since I issued the 0 precip watch for that event. But I think this system is more dynamic than that was being progged to be and thermal profile is not as marginal as that one. Also the Euro was never as excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I hear the 00z GFS ensemble mean tracks the low over Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Sfc temps are warm on there south of MI..more like mid 30s instead of low 30s. In some ways you can see the fragility of the setup when looking at 2m temp maps. Going to be very important to get into the zone where dynamic cooling can work its magic. And time of day also. We have the overnight aspect of the system on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM continues to play catchup, shifting west with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GGEM continues to play catchup, shifting west with each run. I'm not sure where you're getting the "shifting west with each run" idea from. Comparing the 12z and 00z run, the track is the same. However, the 00z run is definitely stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Many members just east of Cleveland I hear the 00z GFS ensemble mean tracks the low over Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Many of us over here are thinking of, praying for, and gathering water for you guys! Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12-16" of brutal cement (talking 6:1 ratio stuff) on the GGEM. I would rather have rain than this scenario. The clean up would be daunting in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm just gonna punt this one. 00z GEFS just atrocious. Good luck to those who get plastered. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Many members just east of Cleveland There's one camp of ensembles that take the low to Erie, PA, and another camp that takes it even SE of Pittsburgh. The low itself isn't necessarily weaker though (many of the ensemble members are stronger than the OP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I like the north/northwestern Burbs of Detriot up through the Bruce Peninsula in Canada for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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