TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 i grew up in Ypsilanti, and my family now lives in Pinckney. I'm sorry. I kid. That's the West Michigan snob in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Btw, I am very appreciative of the posts contained herein that are most helpful in familiarizing myself with the general area, and the climatilogical tendencies unique to this particular region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 At 60 hr the 4km NAM is east of the 12km NAM but also 5mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Btw, I am very appreciative of the posts contained herein that are most helpful in familiarizing myself with the general area, and the climatilogical tendencies unique to this particular region. I can add a few: 1) Ann Arbor and Howell will always manage to get surprise snows in even the crappiest of patterns. 2) Mt. Pleasant and Alma are where people should move to in Michigan if they want to experience a snowless tundra. 3) If Southeastern Michigan gets a good snowstorm, West Michigan will not. 4) If Western Michigan gets a good snowstorm, southeastern Michigan will be dryslotted and get rain. 5) Poor Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Livingston county looks to be in the sweet spot hours 75-81. I'll be rooting for you in SE Michigan on this one! I have a lot of good memories from snow storms in Michigan, but nothing compared to some of the storms I've seen here on the East coast. I hope you get CRUSHED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I can add a few: 1) Ann Arbor and Howell dmc76's location will always manage to get surprise snows in even the crappiest of patterns. 2) Mt. Pleasant and Alma are where people should move to in Michigan if they want to experience a snowless tundra. 3) If Southeastern Michigan gets a good snowstorm, West Michigan will not. 4) If Western Michigan gets a good snowstorm, southeastern Michigan will be dryslotted and get rain. 5) Poor Flint. fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm sorry. I kid. That's the West Michigan snob in me. funny guy, eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Btw, I am very appreciative of the posts contained herein that are most helpful in familiarizing myself with the general area, and the climatilogical tendencies unique to this particular region. I might be biased but I'm liking my area in northwest IN at this point. You said you want a 12" blizzard. I don't know if the best snows end up here but areas near lake Michigan will be favored for some of the strongest winds with the long fetch down the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 At 60 hr the 4km NAM is east of the 12km NAM but also 5mb stronger. 985 mb in KY...sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 i grew up in Ypsilanti, and my family now lives in Pinckney. I too lived in Pinckney for a time about 25 years ago... In fact, at the old house on Farley RD I heard my crack of thunder snow. System looks to be locking into the region for a true share the wealth snow storm. Hoping it ruins the snow drought and makes this winter memorable than just the overabundance of warmth. The next few runs are going to draw a line in the sand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I too lived in Pinckney for a time about 25 years ago... In fact, at the old house on Farley RD I heard my crack of thunder snow. System looks to be locking into the region for a true share the wealth snow storm. Hoping it ruins the snow drought and makes this winter memorable than just the overabundance of warmth. The next few runs are going to draw a line in the sand.... After umpteen chemical plows, hopefully yup get a real plow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 so ohare receives .42 on the 0z Nam and 3.5 inches vs .45 on 18z Nam and 5.5 inches someone please explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I too lived in Pinckney for a time about 25 years ago... In fact, at the old house on Farley RD I heard my crack of thunder snow. System looks to be locking into the region for a true share the wealth snow storm. Hoping it ruins the snow drought and makes this winter memorable than just the overabundance of warmth. The next few runs are going to draw a line in the sand.... curious to see what the global mods do overnight. Outside nailing the historic blizzard days in advance back in January, it seems like the models have really been all over the place on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I can add a few: 1) Ann Arbor and Howell will always manage to get surprise snows in even the crappiest of patterns. 2) Mt. Pleasant and Alma are where people should move to in Michigan if they want to experience a snowless tundra. 3) If Southeastern Michigan gets a good snowstorm, West Michigan will not. 4) If Western Michigan gets a good snowstorm, southeastern Michigan will be dryslotted and get rain. 5) Poor Flint. Thanks so much, Blackrock! Extremely helpful info. Sorry to divert the model thread, but most appreciative, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 so ohare receives .42 on the 0z Nam and 2.5 inches vs .45 on 18z Nam and 5.5 inches someone please explain. Probably thermal profiles. It's probably looking at some rain possibilities? The NAM tends to come in too warm anyways...especially anywhere near Lake Michigan. Drives me nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 FWIW, APX mentioned this system should be partially sampled for the 12z model runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Going to be a plaster job for sure. You can probably chop a degree or two off the NAM's temps. Dynamic cooling FTW and likely to over do the lake influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 so ohare receives .42 on the 0z Nam and 2.5 inches vs .45 on 18z Nam and 5.5 inches someone please explain. Maybe check low level temps to see if they are warmer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Maybe check low level temps to see if they are warmer this run. nice run for you and mich folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 5) Poor Flint. This, in many ways. I *so* don't want a major dumper right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM is like a repeat of the November storm for these parts. Lots of snow in SE Michigan, with a few sloppy inches over here. I wish it would join up with the SREFs, Euro and GFS in pounding West Michigan....but it always differs. Like the outcast child the has to rebel. We'll see if the GEM stabs it in the back and comes west soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This, in many ways. I *so* don't want a major dumper right now. Many of us over here are thinking of, praying for, and gathering water for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 After umpteen chemical plows, hopefully yup get a real plow The possibilities of mixing in the region is very real. In fact, I can see a carbon copy outcome of the SE snowline much like the November system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM is like a repeat of the November storm for these parts. Lots of snow in SE Michigan, with a few sloppy inches over here. I wish it would join up with the SREFs, Euro and GFS in pounding West Michigan....but it always differs. Like the outcast child the has to rebel. We'll see if the GEM stabs it in the back and comes west soon... The winds will be blowing northerly for the main part of the event on your side of the lake. If anything IN should see the sloppiest snow and closer to the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Little east shift on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Largely a miss for NE IL this time around. Also slightly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 0Z GFS is so much better for Michigan. Don't tell me the IL crew is going to get shafted on this, I would feel horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 0Z GFS is so much better for Michigan. Don't tell me the IL crew is going to get shafted on this, I would feel horrible. riiiiight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 72hr the storm is about 40 miles east of 18z run and 2mb weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 0Z GFS is so much better for Michigan. Don't tell me the IL crew is going to get shafted on this, I would feel horrible. This is far from resolved for one and secondly there is no need to spike to ball if your area gets hit over another. That isn't good forum etiquette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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