Chambana Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM also wants to bury STL with 12-16". Central Illinois does well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lots of temp issues with this storm, if it hits during the day may have issues piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 18z NAM is going to be deeper/NW. So actually, it just occluded a bit faster. With that happening, any changes on this run in our region were noise level at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lots of temp issues with this storm, if it hits during the day may have issues piling up. Have to keep an eye on it but I'd be more concerned later in the season. Heavy rates usually can compensate for marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to keep an eye on it but I'd be more concerned later in the season. Heavy rates usually can compensate for marginal temps. Yeah I agree. Hopefully it hits at night and you guys can see some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Interesting placement of that low pressure area late Wednesday Night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to keep an eye on it but I'd be more concerned later in the season. Heavy rates usually can compensate for marginal temps. The marginal boundary layer is almost not even there. It is very shallow. Wouldn't worry too much about it expect for maybe during the middle of the day. GYY sounding at 75 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The marginal boundary layer is almost not even there. It is very shallow. Wouldn't worry too much about it expect for maybe during the middle of the day. GYY sounding at 75 hours. I would worry, surface temps are warm. 18z NAM BUFKIT profiles shows 32-33 degree surface temps for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looks pretty in line with gfs in the end. Might need magnet mode activation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Trees getting beat up between that hurricane the other day and this windy paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to keep an eye on it but I'd be more concerned later in the season. Heavy rates usually can compensate for marginal temps. If the low can close off, that will also aid in dynamic cooling (as the falling precip will be mixing down the extremely cold air aloft with it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hour 60. Gotta love that rain there on the --western-- side of the snow in Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma. It seems a little nuts, but if temps are so close to 32, I suppose it might even happen, to a certain degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would worry, surface temps are warm. 18z NAM BUFKIT shows 32-33 degree surface temps for most of the event. It's really shallow though. Models like to overdo the marine influence and at least near the lake that's what it is picking up on. I'd worry if it was showing 34-35°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I will say this, I do like that this is coming at night vs daytime here, we are getting closer to the point where sun angle is going to start to be a factor. You just need to go back to yesterday to know that things are getting warm in the sun and the thermals aren't great with this one to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's really shallow though. Model like to overdo the marine influence. I'd worry if it was showing 34-35°. Yeah BUFKIT showed 32-33 degs when I used Gary Indiana as data-set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would worry, surface temps are warm. 18z NAM BUFKIT profiles shows 32-33 degree surface temps for most of the event. That's ok if rates are heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 First call 1" to 18" for semi Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 If the storm can slow up a bit and start in the evening that would be better. I know today at least the temp has held steady near 36° with a wind off the 40° lake water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNational Weather Service Lincoln IL306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016High pressure will move across the Great Lakes region on Monday withdry weather and temps lower than what we have had the past few days.However, above normal temps are still expected Mon and Tue witheasterly winds and partly sunny skies.Models all look in much better agreement, than with previous runs,with the developing weather system in the southern plains and itsresulting track northeast. However, ECMWF has trended a littlefurther northwest with the low track and resulting pcpn. NAM appearstoo quick with onset of pcpn in CWA and general thinking is pcpnwill not start until Tue evening in the southern half of the CWA.Pcpn will then spread northeast across the CWA overnight andcontinue through Wed, and then just be in eastern parts of the CWAWed night. Most of the pcpn looks to be east of the IL river, withareas just northwest of the river being only in a chance categoryfor now. Highest pops will be in the eastern and southeastern partsof the CWA late Tue night and Wed. Biggest question now is with p-type. All model soundings look pretty consistent that pcpn willbegin as light rain north of the system and before the cold airarrives in the area. Temps will not be that warm to start with butcolder air appears to arrive in western IL late Tue night and thenprogress to the east through the CWA during the day Wed. Wordedforecast will read rain and snow, but with the influx of colder air,pcpn will change from rain to snow and there will likely be verylittle mix. First idea of snowfall amounts look to be 2-3 incheseast of the IL river and north of I-70. Amounts will be lessnorthwest of the river and thinking 1-1.5 inches south of I-70. Snowwill continue into Wed night and then should end by Thur morning.Temps Wed will be just below normal for the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I've been MIA for a while because I thought this was a Detroit special! Things have changed quite a bit, I'd say 12z runs tomorrow are going to be incredibly important, especially to see if the GGEM budges west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Lincoln IL 306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday) ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 High pressure will move across the Great Lakes region on Monday with dry weather and temps lower than what we have had the past few days. However, above normal temps are still expected Mon and Tue with easterly winds and partly sunny skies. Models all look in much better agreement, than with previous runs, with the developing weather system in the southern plains and its resulting track northeast. However, ECMWF has trended a little further northwest with the low track and resulting pcpn. NAM appears too quick with onset of pcpn in CWA and general thinking is pcpn will not start until Tue evening in the southern half of the CWA. Pcpn will then spread northeast across the CWA overnight and continue through Wed, and then just be in eastern parts of the CWA Wed night. Most of the pcpn looks to be east of the IL river, with areas just northwest of the river being only in a chance category for now. Highest pops will be in the eastern and southeastern parts of the CWA late Tue night and Wed. Biggest question now is with p- type. All model soundings look pretty consistent that pcpn will begin as light rain north of the system and before the cold air arrives in the area. Temps will not be that warm to start with but colder air appears to arrive in western IL late Tue night and then progress to the east through the CWA during the day Wed. Worded forecast will read rain and snow, but with the influx of colder air, pcpn will change from rain to snow and there will likely be very little mix. First idea of snowfall amounts look to be 2-3 inches east of the IL river and north of I-70. Amounts will be less northwest of the river and thinking 1-1.5 inches south of I-70. Snow will continue into Wed night and then should end by Thur morning. Temps Wed will be just below normal for the end of Feb. Nice and that means it will be well into the evening before it gets here. At 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 4km NAM coming in stronger yet. Slightly colder in NE IL early Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 don't think the GFS will be moving east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nams a snowfall map only the cranky mother nature could love. Anyway to miss a big storm one way or another in the big cities this winter will find a way it seems..definitely should be a couple lucky Jack areas though..not imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 don't think the GFS will be moving east... Yep. Track should end up pretty close to 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Buried on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still thinking we'll see a slight bump southeast from where we stand right now. Trend this winter has been consistent if nothing else. Probably weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Trying to remember the last time a storm as deep as the GFS took a track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still thinking we'll see a slight bump southeast from where we stand right now. Trend this winter has been consistent if nothing else. Probably weaker too. i can think of at least two majors that trended well NW inside this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 18Z still showing the warm bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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