snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Ya, probably. For posterity sake: cmc_snow_acc_ne_19.png lol. Same model that was fringing us to the SE at 0z. What garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 lol. Same model that was fringing us to the SE at 0z. What garbage. It would shock me if the 12z Euro or UKIE come in notably SE of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 The fact that the UKMET still has a further east track is still keeping me slightly interested considering its stellar track record lately. Never saw the 0z UKIE. 12z Ukie has a track similar to the 12z GFS. Direct your interest elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 There's no denying the GEM made a big jump to the northwest too. It's still farther east than the the others....but moved west. Could this FINALLY be West Michigan's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEM isn't even worth looking at given its track record this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEM isn't even worth looking at given its track record this winter. You could say that about most of the models...each of them has maybe had a "win" or two this winter, but for the most part..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 it hasn't been consistent but the amped runs haven't gone away and they're starting to gain ensemble support...some of those look like rainers might need to tell Geos to turn the magnet down a couple notches 12z came back to a more comfortable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I like that the GEFS mean is a bit east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ... and it gives IL 0 inches This is why no one trusts the GEM It's late in grabbing enough cold air for central IL. Not really far enough NW yet. EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS I'd say is not much of a change from previous, just a hair east and aside from specific qpf details. Too early to worry about qpf specifics anyway. That sfc low track and strength and track of 850 and 700 mb lows IMO would be good enough for a solid hit back to Chicago proper and immediate suburbs. NW IN most favored. Also GFS has a known bias to be too warm in the boundary layer in dynamic cooling situations so underneath the deformation axis would be cooler than what it's showing. Near and NW of the 850 mb 0 line is probably a good proxy for rain/snow line because there's no warm layer showing up at 925 mb. Edit: To get all of Chicagoland in the heaviest snow swath, do need the main 500 mb wave/low a bit farther northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night which would tug sfc low position a bit more northwest before heading northeast toward Ohio Valley. Looking more and more interesting around here. But between lingering track/thermal questions, some caution is warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The fact that the UKMET still has a further east track is still keeping me slightly interested considering its stellar track record lately. The temperature profiles look terrible from what I can see on the ukie... Not even freezing temps until up near Chicago still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 UKMET is still a bit east of GFS op and NAM but shifted way west from previous run. 00z run had a 994 mb low roughly over PIT at 00z 2/25. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury Agree about rain-to-snow not usually working out, but we're not talking about warning criteria snowfall. I think we'll be able to muster a couple of inches and there's some precedent for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 I like that the GEFS mean is a bit east of the op. inching westward though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Looking like 2-4" of wrap around here. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury. Ya those never work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury. That is a pretty wide West to East area. Is such a thing possible this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4337&mlyRange=1938-01-01%7C2011-06-01&Year=2011&Month=3&Day=1 March 5-6, 2011 in Ottawa is the only time I can remember that working out. Close to 25 mm (1") of rain on the 5th followed by a changeover to 6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Only seeing the EURO out to 24, but I'd be shocked if it varied fundamentally from its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro will be Bombs away looking very strong in C TX at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 992mb over sw ky/nw tn @72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's coming further NW. Last run had it over Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 992mb over sw ky/nw tn @72. Might be deeper/NW of the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Might be deeper/NW of the 0z. It is. The low is over us @96 hours. Close the drapes with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 @96. Probably tracks over my head or just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nice jump NW to the Euro Srn stream wave is further north and closed off across the srn plains then the ULL moves over EVV, sfc low follows on a PAH to southern IN to western OH track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The Chicago folks will be happy with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 O, my. 10-18" swatch from STL to MDW/Hoosier and into central MI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Pretty decent wrap around into ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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