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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27


snowstormcanuck

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it hasn't been consistent but the amped runs haven't gone away and they're starting to gain ensemble support...some of those look like rainers :yikes:

 

might need to tell Geos to turn the magnet down a couple notches

 

:lol:

 

12z came back to a more comfortable track.

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GFS I'd say is not much of a change from previous, just a hair east and aside from specific qpf details. Too early to worry about qpf specifics anyway. That sfc low track and strength and track of 850 and 700 mb lows IMO would be good enough for a solid hit back to Chicago proper and immediate suburbs. NW IN most favored. Also GFS has a known bias to be too warm in the boundary layer in dynamic cooling situations so underneath the deformation axis would be cooler than what it's showing. Near and NW of the 850 mb 0 line is probably a good proxy for rain/snow line because there's no warm layer showing up at 925 mb.

Edit: To get all of Chicagoland in the heaviest snow swath, do need the main 500 mb wave/low a bit farther northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night which would tug sfc low position a bit more northwest before heading northeast toward Ohio Valley.

 

 

Looking more and more interesting around here.  But between lingering track/thermal questions, some caution is warranted.

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The fact that the UKMET still has a further east track is still keeping me slightly interested considering its stellar track record lately.

The temperature profiles look terrible from what I can see on the ukie... Not even freezing temps until up near Chicago still

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As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury.

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As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury

 

Agree about rain-to-snow not usually working out, but we're not talking about warning criteria snowfall. I think we'll be able to muster a couple of inches and there's some precedent for that. 

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As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury.

Ya those never work out.

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As Canuck said, it'll be interesting to see if Toronto and London can get some backlash snows out of this. I find that rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work out well (March 2011 in Ottawa is the only one I can remember where a heavy rain turned to a heavy snow overnight and gace us between 6-8"). JB in his video on Weatherbell this morning commented that this would be an "ugly storm" but seems to have conceded that it will be areas further west that get the heaviest snow. Right now I'm thinking the sweet spots will include places like Chicago, Sault Ste. Marie, the Bruce Peninsula and Sudbury.

 

That is a pretty wide West to East area. Is such a thing possible this winter? :P

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http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4337&mlyRange=1938-01-01%7C2011-06-01&Year=2011&Month=3&Day=1

 

March 5-6, 2011 in Ottawa is the only time I can remember that working out. Close to 25 mm (1") of rain on the 5th followed by a changeover to 6" of snow.

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