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Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27


snowstormcanuck

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I think Gino's AFD captured the uncertainty well. Looking at the strength of the sfc low on the individual members, not really a question whether phasing occurs between the parent wave and the northern stream energy/wave diving in. It's simply the timing and location of the phase.

The 12z RAOB over the Yukon territory looks like it sampled the first northern wave, but unfortunately there were no soundings farther west along the far northern AK coast. Then the main parent wave on W/V over the northeast Pacific will move ashore onto Washington coast by tomorrow morning. The non-RAOB ob network is way better than in the past, but I still think full RAOB sampling tomorrow will help get closer to an answer on the all important question of when/where the first phase occurs and reduce the spread in the guidance. Definitely growing more concerned for significant impacts in the LOT CWA.

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this is the snowfall mean from the eps. it indicates significant backlash snows. Of course we need perfect timing of everything and like I said, a track that is not too far west....and of course we know how well backlash has worked out for us in the past :axe:

In my 14 years of living in this area, I don't remember even one instance where we got any appreciable backlash snowfall from a storm. So yeah, I'm not holding my breath on that one. Might as well hope for wagons west so we at least get some warm air out of this.

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GFS I'd say is not much of a change from previous, just a hair east and aside from specific qpf details. Too early to worry about qpf specifics anyway. That sfc low track and strength and track of 850 and 700 mb lows IMO would be good enough for a solid hit back to Chicago proper and immediate suburbs. NW IN most favored. Also GFS has a known bias to be too warm in the boundary layer in dynamic cooling situations so underneath the deformation axis would be cooler than what it's showing. Near and NW of the 850 mb 0 line is probably a good proxy for rain/snow line because there's no warm layer showing up at 925 mb.

Edit: To get all of Chicagoland in the heaviest snow swath, do need the main 500 mb wave/low a bit farther northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night which would tug sfc low position a bit more northwest before heading northeast toward Ohio Valley.

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In my 14 years of living in this area, I don't remember even one instance where we got any appreciable backlash snowfall from a storm. So yeah, I'm not holding my breath on that one. Might as well hope for wagons west so we at least get some warm air out of this.

 

oh it's happened, but like you said it's been quite awhile....I think early 90's was the last good one, and then handful before that.  So I can at least attest to the fact that it IS possible lol.    

 

btw, looking at some of these model runs,whoever gets into backlash might do pretty well considering that's when the thermals rapidly improve and cold air wraps in.   Question is where that sets up.  This is a slow mover too with a closed low that drifts right over us, (if you believe the gfs).

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I think the ship has sailed on this being a significant event for us. GFS shows about 1/4" of QPF in the wrap around snow though. Might be good for 1-3".

The fact that the UKMET still has a further east track is still keeping me slightly interested considering its stellar track record lately.

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