RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I think Gino's AFD captured the uncertainty well. Looking at the strength of the sfc low on the individual members, not really a question whether phasing occurs between the parent wave and the northern stream energy/wave diving in. It's simply the timing and location of the phase. The 12z RAOB over the Yukon territory looks like it sampled the first northern wave, but unfortunately there were no soundings farther west along the far northern AK coast. Then the main parent wave on W/V over the northeast Pacific will move ashore onto Washington coast by tomorrow morning. The non-RAOB ob network is way better than in the past, but I still think full RAOB sampling tomorrow will help get closer to an answer on the all important question of when/where the first phase occurs and reduce the spread in the guidance. Definitely growing more concerned for significant impacts in the LOT CWA. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still like Chicago best threading the needle like the gfs does a few times. Other 0z models laugh at that.. Shrugs, we'll know a little more at 0z Chicago still looks like the place I'd want to be if this system goes geos boom..we'll know a little more at 0zz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Early guess is NAM comes west at least some looking at 30hr Energy just SW of four corners is stronger as well as energy still over Pac NW, nrn stream wave a little further south and slightly more ridging across Mississippi/Ohio River valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 A handful of days ago I was hearing about how the pattern supports east coast storms. Now it's worrying about a cut west. Lol some will never learn that the weather does what it wants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Keep sending her west. I'd rather get some above normal temps out of her now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Srn stream wave closing off over AMA at 45hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 this is the snowfall mean from the eps. it indicates significant backlash snows. Of course we need perfect timing of everything and like I said, a track that is not too far west....and of course we know how well backlash has worked out for us in the past In my 14 years of living in this area, I don't remember even one instance where we got any appreciable backlash snowfall from a storm. So yeah, I'm not holding my breath on that one. Might as well hope for wagons west so we at least get some warm air out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12z nam comes northwest some. Great hit for downstate IL and nw Indiana.http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=NAM&p=acc10snow&rh=2016022112&fh=84&r=mw&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The western trends and precip issues are par for the course for this winter season in my region with any southern jet system. Hoping the backside wrap around saves the day with a little snow for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06z has St. Louis and NW Indiana getting nailed. Places in between 6-8". I hadn't even been paying attention to this until his morning, I've been blinded by the spring teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Liking SW Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 i've been pretty good about keeping my ohio needling to a minimum and they're probably had more snow than me this year anyways I don't know 5" isn't hard to beat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 A handful of days ago I was hearing about how the pattern supports east coast storms. Now it's worrying about a cut west. Lol some will never learn that the weather does what it wants lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 12Z GFS holds same course as 06Z essentially, nudged east slightly. Thermals are terrible for Toronto... 38F at hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Historic Paste Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Messy thermals all over the place again on the 12z NAM. I have no skin in the game but this will be great to watch unfold this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I buy this GFS solution... sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I buy this GFS solution... sadly. Simply put this storm describes how this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Simply put this storm describes how this winter has been. Sadly not enough cold air to work with... which is rather typical of El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GFS I'd say is not much of a change from previous, just a hair east and aside from specific qpf details. Too early to worry about qpf specifics anyway. That sfc low track and strength and track of 850 and 700 mb lows IMO would be good enough for a solid hit back to Chicago proper and immediate suburbs. NW IN most favored. Also GFS has a known bias to be too warm in the boundary layer in dynamic cooling situations so underneath the deformation axis would be cooler than what it's showing. Near and NW of the 850 mb 0 line is probably a good proxy for rain/snow line because there's no warm layer showing up at 925 mb. Edit: To get all of Chicagoland in the heaviest snow swath, do need the main 500 mb wave/low a bit farther northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night which would tug sfc low position a bit more northwest before heading northeast toward Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 H7/Sfc lows on the 12z GEM look further east than 0z at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 In my 14 years of living in this area, I don't remember even one instance where we got any appreciable backlash snowfall from a storm. So yeah, I'm not holding my breath on that one. Might as well hope for wagons west so we at least get some warm air out of this. oh it's happened, but like you said it's been quite awhile....I think early 90's was the last good one, and then handful before that. So I can at least attest to the fact that it IS possible lol. btw, looking at some of these model runs,whoever gets into backlash might do pretty well considering that's when the thermals rapidly improve and cold air wraps in. Question is where that sets up. This is a slow mover too with a closed low that drifts right over us, (if you believe the gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 12Z GFS holds same course as 06Z essentially, nudged east slightly. Thermals are terrible for Toronto... 38F at hour 102. I think the ship has sailed on this being a significant event for us. GFS shows about 1/4" of QPF in the wrap around snow though. Might be good for 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 H7/Sfc lows on the 12z GEM look further east than 0z at hour 60. Haven't checked them myself, but with GFS/EURO in pretty good agreement...you gotta toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I think the ship has sailed on this being a significant event for us. GFS shows about 1/4" of QPF in the wrap around snow though. Might be good for 1-3". The fact that the UKMET still has a further east track is still keeping me slightly interested considering its stellar track record lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEM takes the sfc low just south of Louisville to Cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The 12Z GFS could be better for Northern Illinois, Southern MI, and Ohio but as people have stated the GFS's warm bias is showing and I wouldn't be surprised for the ECMWF to be really snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Haven't checked them myself, but with GFS/EURO in pretty good agreement...you gotta toss. Ya, probably. For posterity sake: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEM takes the sfc low just south of Louisville to CincyNice location to have it for IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Nice location to have it for IL ... and it gives IL 0 inches This is why no one trusts the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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