Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^ Well we have two camps now. The NAM and GEM, vs. the EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ^ Well we have two camps now. The NAM and GEM, vs. the EURO and GFS. NAM is closer to the Euro/GFS than the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 00z UK came in finally. Looks quite similar to the Euro at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Should mention 0Z Euro would be another Blizzard Warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Should mention 0Z Euro would be another Blizzard Warning level event. Winds aren't strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 GRR's thoughts: THE BIG NEWS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE INCREASINGCHANCES OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWERMICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOUTHERNPLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AND THE LOW WILL TRACK CLOSE ENOUGHTO BRING SNOW TO LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFSSHOW A CLASSIC CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACK FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOW TOIMPACT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THIS WEHAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA ONWEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN LINE WITH THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE00Z ECMWF. THE GFS TRACK HAS BEEN A BIT FURTHER WEST AND WOULD BRINGHEAVY SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IWX's thoughts: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH/PV ANOMALYOVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL THEN PHASEWITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST AND SPAWN STRONG SURFACECYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY WED/THURS.COUPLED UPPER JETS AND PHASED/NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGHWITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FAVOR A STRONG SURFACELOW AND LARGE AREA OF MOD-HEAVY PRECIP. MAJORITY OF LATESTDETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR THIS SCENARIO BUT VARYWILDLY IN EXACT SURFACE LOW TIMING AND TRACK. THIS IS UNFORTUNATENOT ONLY BECAUSE PRECIP SHIELD COULD LARGELY MISS US WITH ANEASTERLY TRACK (SEE 00Z NAM AND GEM)...BUT A FURTHER WEST TRACK(GFS) WOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY INFILTRATE OURAREA AND INTRODUCE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF DETAILSTO WORK OUT AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AT THISTIME RANGE. DID HOWEVER RAISE POPS FOR WED AND INTRODUCE POPS FORTUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL EARLY ARRIVAL OF WAA WING AS SEEN INNEWEST NAM AND GFS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD VERYCLOSELY AS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR AREA TO SEE SOMESNOW IS INCREASING. COOLER TEMPS AND SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOWPOSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM coming in much stronger, wetter and slower. Big run. If that cold air can get in quicker this is a beast of a storm for much of southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 NAM coming in much stronger, wetter and slower. Big run. If that cold air can get in quicker this is a beast of a storm for much of southern MI The NAM does something weird with the thermodynamics at the end of the run but it's a great run for most. Decently windy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The NAM does something weird with the thermodynamics at the end of the run but it's a great run for most. Decently windy too. Can you elaborate on what is weird?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Can you elaborate on what is weird? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Little pocket of pretty decent amount warm air creeps into extreme semi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Little pocket of pretty decent amount warm air creeps into extreme semi TROWAL, not surprising and not weird as eluded to. Looks correct, based upon the low locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06z coming in deeper, further west at 72 hours. 00z: 994 06z: 990 Yea, this run is amped. Just in case you can't access models atm. Low struggles to strengthen for a few hours, and is the same as 00z at 90 hours. 986 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 06Z GFS has more P-Type issues, but the models will work it out eventually to the extent how bad it will be, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 final call: 5.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 0z Euro ensemble mean and members, many NW of the op and mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 it hasn't been consistent but the amped runs haven't gone away and they're starting to gain ensemble support...some of those look like rainers might need to tell Geos to turn the magnet down a couple notches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 final call: 5.5" going to break a lot of Ohio posters hearts and break the board entirely with that post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 going to break a lot of Ohio posters hearts and break the board entirely with that post i've been pretty good about keeping my ohio needling to a minimum and they're probably had more snow than me this year anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to say I'm not liking the trends. I'm starting to think this could be snow to rain scenario for Toronto. There just isn't enough cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to say I'm not liking the trends. I'm starting to think this could be snow to rain scenario for Toronto. There just isn't enough cold air around. Yup. And I buy it too, given our luck the past couple winters with big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 final call: 5.5" Bold This looks like it might follow the pattern of trending west, then a slight a last-minute shift back east. Could be a Hoosier special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Have to say I'm not liking the trends. I'm starting to think this could be snow to rain scenario for Toronto. There just isn't enough cold air around. Probably more like rain to snow. Somewhat presciently, I mentioned on page 1 or 2 that the eastern lakes don't cash in on bombs. This will be no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 it hasn't been consistent but the amped runs haven't gone away and they're starting to gain ensemble support...some of those look like rainers might need to tell Geos to turn the magnet down a couple notches Only like one or two members have the snow swath just west of here but no rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ALEK and the ORD crowd reel'n 'er in if this west trend continues my backlash hopes are going to fade too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 ALEK and the ORD crowd reel'n 'er in if this west trend continues my backlash hopes are going to fade too Our only hope for this scenario is if it bombs out overhead or just west of us. Otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 going to break a lot of Ohio posters hearts and break the board entirely with that post ? I think Ohio posters have been pretty realistic about this one....haven't seen any weenie optimism from any of us. You have to have a modeled snow storm before you can have your heart broken. Even when the models were east with the perfect track, they weren't giving us a snowstorm. No cold HP to our north means if the storm is weak and east, no cold air. If it's amped, it's warm air. We were damned if we did, damned if we didn't. I'm just riding the potential backlash train....which will derail if this keeps heading west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Our only hope for this scenario is if it bombs out overhead or just west of us. Otherwise yep. The 00z euro op/control/and eps all show decent wrap around for most of Ohio..... but I don't think the west trend is over. This has the earmarks of one of those storms that once the models figure out it's going to phase, it becomes katy-bar-the-western-door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 yep. The 00z euro op/control/and eps all show decent wrap around for most of Ohio..... but I don't think the west trend is over. This has the earmarks of one of those storms that once the models figure out it's going to phase, it becomes katy-bar-the-western-door. Congrats MSP. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 One important note from the morning dtx discussion. All the key features are still 36 hours away from being properly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Congrats MSP. lol this is the snowfall mean from the eps. it indicates significant backlash snows. Of course we need perfect timing of everything and like I said, a track that is not too far west....and of course we know how well backlash has worked out for us in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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