snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart. ...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:01 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: NAM very windy as well. We might get a good chunk of blowing and drifting wet snow/power outages Yes..now power outages excite me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:03 PM, Powerball said: NAM is west/warmer compared to the 06z run (Cleveland vs. Erie, PA).Not sure where you see 12z tracking over Cleveland? . Regardless two days ago I'd be thrilled with a Cleve track once partial sampling was introduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with. I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:11 PM, michsnowfreak said: Not sure where you see 12z tracking over Cleveland? . Regardless two days ago I'd be thrilled with a Cleve track once partial sampling was introduced. Well I already expressed my feelings on this (go big or go home). That feeling hasn't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM-4km looks weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:13 PM, Chambana said: Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with. I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature. 12/28/15 had a ton of blowing and drifting despite the wet nature of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Needless to say 00Z runs tonight will be huge and put a nail in many a coffin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z RGEM at 48 looks fairly similar to the 12z NAM valid the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think places in South Mi could be pushing Blizzard warning criteria during this thing, what do the mets think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:21 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I think places in South Mi could be pushing Blizzard warning criteria during this thing, what do the mets think? You've mentioned that several times. Too early to make the call IMO, especially given some of the (somewhat) weaker 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM runs have certainly shifted back west from 6Z this morning...but still doesn't look good for those who were looking at 6 to 12 inches on the models yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 At 30 GFS looks stronger over tx with the southern stream so I'm thinking this comes west. The one thing that may mitigate that is that the northern stream is digging less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 just no cold air to play with and a huge wide open warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z GFS went back West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:08 PM, snowstormcanuck said: 12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart. 12zNAM.jpg ...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift. Can clearly see the Region of Waterloo and Wellington County on there. Harrisale.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Little snow for Detroit. Borderline a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:04 PM, dmc76 said: Little snow for Detroit. Borderline a non event.I wouldn't say non event (shows 4-5" for dtw) btw definitely sticking with being the furthest west model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm going to be riding the battle lines on this one. I'll be driving right up the gut Thursday morning though -- damnit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 3:45 PM, A-L-E-K said: just no cold air to play with and a huge wide open warm sector Not ready to even make a first guess at this point. Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to. Could really make an argument either way (nw or se). On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY. Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:08 PM, michsnowfreak said: I wouldn't say non event (shows 4-5" for dtw) btw definitely sticking with being the furthest west model. Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No one cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:27 PM, dmc76 said: Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill. Not even I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 How is NE Lower MI looking on the latest run? I can't load the latest GFS for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:25 PM, Hoosier said: Not ready to even make a first guess at this point. Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to. Could really make an argument either way (nw or se). On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY. Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group. lol Weren't computers supposed to make this stuff easier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:27 PM, dmc76 said: Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill. Well said. Might as well consider it stat padding at this point. I was hoping we could at least go for sub-30 inch winter and that we'd no longer have to deal with long-lasting snowcover but this potentially underwheling event has a good chance of ruining that hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z GGEM finally gets respectable precip in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:02 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 12Z GFS went back West. Not really. The snow band just narrowed on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:03 PM, on_wx said: Can clearly see the Region of Waterloo and Wellington County on there. Harrisale.. Still liking where I sit, although its going to be quite the close call. Thinking it'll be hard to avoid mixing. YYZ itself is probably going to see a good chunk of the precip go as rain. Like Hoosier said, its too hard to make a first call yet (between track consistency and p-type issues), but I'll have one after the 00Z runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:02 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 12Z GFS went back West. No, it held course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 4:43 PM, harrisale said: Still liking where I sit, although its going to be quite the close call. Thinking it'll be hard to avoid mixing. YYZ itself is probably going to see a good chunk of the precip go as rain. Like Hoosier said, its too hard to make a first call yet (between track consistency and p-type issues), but I'll have one after the 00Z runs come in. Yeah Toronto is out of it (as usual). Even if the track does trend east, the lack of cold air is going to be a problem. Warm air really prominent on the eastern side of the low. I think the tri cities have a great shot at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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