Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:04 PM, UMB WX said: Potential is there for sure in Chicago and pretty much why I'm still in tracking it. Id have laid the potential out there to on a Sunday evening to you know let the media blow it up lol.. Plus it's kinda refreshing to read some one laying it out there I don't know why the media blows these winter storms up. People act like we don't see snow storms every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:24 PM, snowlover2 said: Models were trying to give me a couple inches the day before and stayed to far south. Where the storm mattered I'm sure it creeped better for those on the NW fringes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Say the words "winter storm" around here, and you get everyone up in arms. I was born and raised here, snow is part of winter... you would think everyone who was ever raised here would be used to it..... I have never seen people complain as loud and as long as they do around here when more than 2" of snow threatens. Personally, I am not thrilled with the thought of a storm, but it is still winter, after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:16 PM, snowlover2 said: The east coast blizzard does compare to this and it ended up a little southeast of guidance so you can use that trend in this case. Huh? It trended north (with the heavy snow) and west and tucked into the coast with the sfc low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The only thing to possibly take away from the DGEX is that we'll probably see some super juiced NAM runs down the road but that's to be expected given the open gulf/moisture trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 If you're not even thrilled then can you just imagine the sweet nothing's others are whispering on Facebook of the prospect of having to drive in that city with snow during a rush hr.. Now if you don't have to drive in it and you live where snow is common just sthu and deal with it plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:42 PM, Thundersnow12 said: The only thing to possibly take away from the DGEX is that we'll probably see some super juiced NAM runs down the road but that's to be expected given the open gulf/moisture trajectories. The DGEX run (06z) posted above was an extension of the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 From Maue's twitter A 991 mb low that far south is fairly unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:26 PM, Geos said: Euro by far is the coldest solution for NE IL/SE WI. Showing 2"+/hour rates around 87 hours. Temps below freezing and winds howling out of the N/NNE at 30-35 mph near the lake. FWIW - which is very little. The DGEX. Hand-drawn by Hillsdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 10:45 PM, Powerball said: Not so much a "lol" as far as the potential he laid out, but the fact that he went full throttle in laying out the potential in his AFD despite the fact that were still several days out. It's pretty bold. GRR is also going bold mentioning 8-12. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TAKEN A BIG JOG TO THE WEST SINCE YESTERDAY. THE RESULT IS THAT THE SWATH OF DEEP SNOW THAT WAS OVER OHIO IS NOW BEING PAINTED OVER MID MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. IF...AND THAT/S A BIG IF...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT BAND OF 8-12 INCH SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE ECMWF/PARALLEL EURO/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALL LEANING IN THIS DIRECTION. THE CANADIAN STILL PAINTS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EAST OF THE CWA. THERMAL PROFILES ARE ON THE EDGE OF BEING A LITTLE TOO WARM TO GET ALL SNOW...BUT ARE STILL ON THE COLD SIDE AND COULD STAY THERE DUE TO THE COLD DRY AIR THAT`S SITTING NORTH OF THE CWA. ANY WIGGLE THERE COULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. AS IT STANDS NOW THE SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A LOWER RATIO SNOW...LIKE 8-9:1 INITIALLY BEFORE CLIMBING TO 12:1 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR SO WHICH WILL BE A HEAVY SNOW. THUS THE USUAL HEAVY WET SNOW SHOVELING HAZARDS APPLY. THE SNOW WILL END THURSDAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A ARCTIC BLAST OF AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. H8 TEMPS NEAR -26C WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS IF IT VERIFIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Couldn't help myself and peeked at the 15z SREF. A lot of spread as expected but already looks decent for GYY with a mean of 4" and several members AOA 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:44 PM, Powerball said: The DGEX run (06z) posted above was an extension of the 06z NAM. Yeah now it is out of range unless you're way up north and east. Skilling did a write up this afternoon. He's cautiously optimistic. http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/mid-week-winter-storm-potential-being-monitored-in-sections-of-the-nations-mid-section-not-yet-a-slam-dunk-but-certainly-the-subject-of-scrutiny-by-forecasters-here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/21/2016 at 11:40 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Huh? It trended north (with the heavy snow) and west and tucked into the coast with the sfc low You both are right, in the west it trended south for Ohio and western Kentucky, it did trend north for the coast. The track orientation changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 12:22 AM, Hoosier said: Couldn't help myself and peeked at the 15z SREF. A lot of spread as expected but already looks decent for GYY with a mean of 4" and several members AOA 12" Made me look too. 6" here for the mean. Everything up to 14" on the table. 21z bumped up to 6" for you. Snap shot of the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 2:05 AM, Geos said: Made me look too. 6" here for the mean. Everything up to 14" on the table. 21z bumped up to 6" for you. Snap shot of the NAVGEM. Wow, that is a beauty! Where are you seeing the updated SREF maps? I was looking, but don't see any showing the totals you guys are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 So far 0z NAM track looks similar but does look stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Never mind...Think I found it? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/impactgraphics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM looks juiced. I'd love to see SE Michigan get hammered this time around, but it looks like the best of it will be north and west. maybe some snow on the backside in Livingston county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The NAM looks to be a slight bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 2:41 AM, 33andrain said: NAM looks juiced. I'd love to see SE Michigan get hammered this time around, but it looks like the best of it will be north and west. maybe some snow on the backside in Livingston county. Do you have connections to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Ya NAM going real negative pushing some good snow back farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nice defo over Chicago metro...the thermal profiles are out of wack though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NAM is the best spread the wealth run for areas that have to deal with the changeover, ridiculously heavy snow On 2/22/2016 at 2:46 AM, mimillman said: Nice defo over Chicago metro...the thermal profiles are out of wack though. The thermo's on the NAM are messed up, it should be snowing at some points when it shows rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 UH GUYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Decent run overall. A little underwhelming with the sfc low intensity (vs what GFS has been showing) but there's time to work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 2:50 AM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: UH GUYS Dynamic cooling doing its thing. Definitely strange thermos though. Starting at 60hr, 925mb temps are below freezing, but 850mb temps are above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm definitely following this prospective storm system in hopes of a possible chase. There will need to be better model consensus suggesting blizzard conditions no further W than Chicago to justify the 1000 sm trip. Currently, the thermals and the exact intensity have me concerned as to whether this will materialize into a significant 12" blizzard...which is my minimum standard for such a long expedition. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 2:42 AM, Jonger said: Do you have connections to the area?i grew up in Ypsilanti, and my family now lives in Pinckney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hillsdale holding onto any hope that gives the most snowfall to Hillsdale.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 On 2/22/2016 at 2:56 AM, blackrock said: Hillsdale holding onto any hope that gives the most snowfall to Hillsdale.... you better believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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