snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sorry guys...I thought one of the OH crew would have jumped on starting a thread already. Anyway the discussion was getting bifurcated so I thought I'd act. With my track record for imby....either the OV or the western Lakes will get hit pretty hard. Anyways discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 UKIE consistency of bomb like storm + GEFs being fairly well to the west of the OP make the junky solution less likely imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS, Euro, and CMC are all in the same camp with a messy, multiple wave solution, which takes the storms along/east the spine of the Apps. Ukie is all alone with a single storm, so she's stronger and cuts up west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS, Euro, and CMC are all in the same camp with a messy, multiple wave solution, which takes the storms along/east the spine of the Apps. Ukie is all alone with a single storm, so she's stronger and cuts up west of the Apps. I'd argue the EURO is closer to a UKIE like solution than the GFS/GEM. Looks like a fairly consolidated longwave trough at H5 but it still manages to spin out two sfc lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Golden Horseshoe receives 6"+ on the euro. A weird Lehs signature helps out with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Golden Horseshoe receives 6"+ on the euro. A weird Lehs signature helps out with wave 1. Do we get hit with both waves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Do we get hit with both waves? Yes, though the second wave is a graze job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 euro rains on us with first wave and then grazes us with second. I wonder if this two part storm idea is legit. If it is, we're doomed to a euro style outcome, but I can't think of a situation where two storms of fairly equal pressure came out of the south, one on the other's tail and taking similar paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GEFS Mean at H5: Low locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 eps day 5.5...looks like the ens doesn't agree with the two wave thing. Looks like a low to WV with a stronger secondary popping east of that. After that it consolidates over the DelMarva and heads northeast. Mean snowfall looks good for most of Ohio as well. Widespread 3-4" which is not a bad signal on a mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The 12z EPS has the trailing wave as the dominant piece of energy. Much clearer signal than 0z with a low travelling from LA to N AL and W of the Apps. Redevelopment occurs along the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The 12z EPS has the trailing wave as the dominant piece of energy. Much clearer signal than 0z with a low travelling from LA to N AL and W of the Apps. Redevelopment occurs along the coastal plane. I think one of the waves going alpha male is probably the right call. We, (Ohio), would probably do better if its the trailer since that first one could act to help tame heights out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 the thing about the ensembles is that you can't even count on them to give you a clue as to what might happen the next model run. If we were to use the 00z ensembles to predict the 12z run, we would have expected a much further west track. The 00z members had a few hits that nailed Chicago through western and central MI. This is far from settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 the thing about the ensembles is that you can't even count on them to give you a clue as to what might happen the next model run. If we were to use the 00z ensembles to predict the 12z run, we would have expected a much further west track. The 00z members had a few hits that nailed Chicago through western and central MI. This is far from settled. If you compare the 12z GEPS to the 12z GEFS, the difference is huge. Lots to be sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Para Euro says hello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Idk if this allowed but wow these models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Idk if this allowed but wow these models are all over the place. YEAH LET'S GET IT!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That Euro just made me smile uncontrollablly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 lets GHD storm this one from the east coast and ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That Euro just made me smile uncontrollablly.And it made me cry a little. Every forum is involved in this thing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ~70% of the 12z EPS members have a track along the coastal plain or further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 para brings the low to Dayton and then just sits over erie gives most of the sub a long duration light snow event....which is how that /\ snow over Ohio happens. Still has two lows. I don't think I've ever seen a surface map like this before. (from WxBell) But throw it on the pile of options. We now have officially everything from a Chicago snowstorm to a mid-atlantic slider on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 imagine the potential if we had a stout arctic high sprawled across the lakes instead of the usual stagnant high and weak low pressure cluster we've been dealing with all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 gfs launching the nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 gfs launching the nuke Way west. Low party at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 gfs 18z says hello ALEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 gfs launching the nuke3️⃣2️⃣1️⃣.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Way west. Low party at my house. 18gfs and para euro go full throttle phase in the southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Keep cutting west, I would love some severe weather out of this instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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