UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This is less than 4 days from now, and while the euro/ggem are hinting at a more amplified solution than the gfs, bringing advisory snows for the region, the nam ( although outside its range) is showing a much more robust, COLDER, low end warning criteria snowfall for the entire area... This storm should be monitored closely as it will have drastic ramifications towards the midweek threat and could serve as a disruptive event non the less... IF, the nam solution is correct, a colder mid week solution would seem likely. Also the EPS is similar to the nam in regards to amplification and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This is for the wave on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yea....that NAM run was beautiful! Lets see if tonights GFS and EURO show something now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 3:43 AM, dmillz25 said: dmillz25, on 18 Feb 2016 - 10:43 PM, said:This is for the wave on Monday? Yea...sunday night/ monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GFS has a weak low . Nothing like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 00z GFS is still a total whiff for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 3:54 AM, Snow88 said: GFS has a weak low . Nothing like the Nam. Nothing like the euro or ggem either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Tomorrows 12z guidance is important for this event. Hard to believe once that event is within 60-66 hours , that the GFS and EURO would be out to lunch on an event that's going to affect us much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 3:57 AM, KeithB said: Tomorrows 12z guidance is important for this event. Hard to believe once that event is within 60-66 hours , that the GFS and EURO would be out to lunch on an event that's going to affect us much. Welllllllll the gfs and euro were out to lunch on the blizzard... The night before lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ggem looks more like nam with this event, hopefully it will translate to another good run for midweek Edit: not as cold but NOTHING like the GooFuS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gfs Nam Ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro just went well south. It exits near SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 6:11 AM, Snow88 said: Euro just went well south. It exits near SNJ.Keeps cold air in and Qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 6:14 AM, nyblizz44 said: Keeps cold air in and Qpf? 850s are cold but surface isnt. QPF is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 3z is more south than 21z for Monday http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/SREFUS6Precip03078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam still 4-8" for Hudson valley, very bullish with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 11:23 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam still 4-8" for Hudson valley, very bullish with this event You would think one of these F'n storms has to break our way in the HV. This setup as depicted on a couple of models is our storm for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam try's to drop a quick dusting down for NW areas tonight also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nam continues to be impressed with this storm.. This may serve as a bigger potential than Midweeks Storm for many of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Another very good interior hit on the nam, amazing how the nam is locked in on this yet other guidance just isn't there, gfs especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 LHV, NYC, LI, and SNE get smacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 2:41 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Another very good interior hit on the nam, amazing how the nam is locked in on this yet other guidance just isn't there, gfs especiallylooks like the same exact setup that we had Feb 3rd 2014 a day after the Super Bowl. Nam was the first guidance to catch that storm on that Friday and other guidance came along Saturday and Sunday. It started raining Monday morning which turned to heavy snow ended as powdery snow and NYC ended with 8 inches. Same exact setup in my opinion. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 General 3-6" not as robust for Hudson valley as 06z, and better for NYC, LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Track wise I agree freak, nobody is getting a foot out of this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 2:42 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: LHV, NYC, LI, and SNE get smacked Rain to snow for the coast as the low gains strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 less robust that 06z and further south-wondering if it's stepping toward other guidance that's further south and much less of an event (GFS, EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On 2/19/2016 at 2:49 PM, Brian5671 said: less robust that 06z and further south-wondering if it's stepping toward other guidance that's further south and much less of an event (GFS, EURO) It's similiar to the Euro but colder. GFS barely has anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Pretty nice move south/cold on this storm. You can tell the combo of the pseudo 50/50 low and high is pressing nicely prior to storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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