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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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65 in NYC already.

Busted again. 70 is doable today.

 

Same story since last May as the warmth has been exceeding guidance on a regular basis.

 

Classic 2000's style stuck or stagnant weather pattern where the WAR has been dominating the pattern.

 

 

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Same story since last May as the warmth has been exceeding guidance on a regular basis.

 

Classic 2000's style stuck or stagnant weather pattern where the WAR has been dominating the pattern.

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_4.png

Could it be the giant cutoff low over MX/TX pumping up the heights over the East? This isn't rocket science. 

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Few drops of rain here in New Brunswick if you can believe that.

KDIX radar shows a lot of light activity. 

 

I think some are taking modeled QPF too seriously. The boundary is going to be nearbye for the long haul, so any embedded shortwaves within the flow will have the potential to set off precip.

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Could it be the giant cutoff low over MX/TX pumping up the heights over the East? This isn't rocket science. 

 

That's just this week. But the long duration ridge pattern and record warmth has been in place much

of the time since last May. This record cutoff and torrential rains are just the latest in the pattern

that has been producing record rains over the Southern Central US since last spring . So its no surprise 

that Euro is printing such high rainfall totals NE of Houston this week. JM picked an interesting time

to move to that region.

 

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Max res 12z Euro has 1-3" of rain here over the next week to ten days while the 00z run had under 0.75". It seems like the guidance is starting to pick up on the boundary sinking a bit further South.

Once past the 15th, we have to think about cutoff low/heavy rain potential as the jetstream and westerlies continue their seasonal jog to the north and we still have an active STJ/southern stream
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That's just this week. But the long duration ridge pattern and record warmth has been in place much

of the time since last May. This record cutoff and torrential rains are just the latest in the pattern

that has been producing record rains over the Southern Central US since last spring . So its no surprise 

that Euro is printing such high rainfall totals NE of Houston this week. JM picked an interesting time

to move to that region.

 

attachicon.gif12mPDeptUS.png

biggest departures from normal in the entire country right over SNE.   Amazing we have yet to put a dent in that one.

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Max res 12z Euro has 1-3" of rain here over the next week to ten days while the 00z run had under 0.75". It seems like the guidance is starting to pick up on the boundary sinking a bit further South.

I could see that going either way-ridge flexes and we miss it all.  Ridge is less impressive and we drown.   However, given the map posted above, I might bet on dry....

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Departures will really ramp up over the next week or so. All NYC needs for a top

ten warmest March is to finish the month at +3.9 or greater.

 

Quite a run for top ten warmest months at NYC since last May

 

May.............2nd warmest

August.........3rd warmest

September..#1 warmest

November...#1 warmest

December..#1 warmest

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