Morris Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Under an inch of rain on the 6z GFS for the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Under an inch of rain on the 6z GFS for the next 16 days. The rain isn't far away. If the blocking ends up being just a tad weaker, we flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 The rain isn't far away. If the blocking ends up being just a tad weaker, we flood. Hope it weakens. Boring weather pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I have a hard time trusting the modeling which shows a trough, -NAO etc for day 10-15--seen that before-this week for example looked cold and stormy 2 weeks ago and we're going to end up with historic warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I have a hard time trusting the modeling which shows a trough, -NAO etc for day 10-15--seen that before-this week for example looked cold and stormy 2 weeks ago and we're going to end up with historic warmth For all the ensembles that go out past days 6-10, many times it doesn't pay to even look at them after day 10. Sometimes we get lucky and aspects of the post D10 forecast work out. Most of the time though, day 6-10 is the effective limit of what ensembles presently can do. This a a big step up from the 70's 80's when the day 1-5 was often uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 DECEMBER REDUX: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA The 8 day period, including today will average +15. 56 versus 41normal. That is OK for April 25th. This would mean a record pace by the Ides of March morn of +8.6 for the month. No below normal day till 3/21 at least. The latest 12Z GFSx is about +17 for the next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Some records that could be threatened in coming days: March 9: Highest minimum temperature: 48°, 2000 Highest maximum temperature: 69°, 2000 March 10: Highest minimum temperature: 51°, 1955 Highest maximum temperature: 74°, 2006 Also, assuming scenarios of MOS +/- 3° for the March 8-14 period and then anomalies of -5° to +5° for the remainder of the month, there would be an implied probability that March would be above normal of approximately 99% and an implied probability of a +3° or higher monthly anomaly of 66%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 beware the sea breeze tomorrow with light southerly flow and march ocean temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 62f, sun no clouds. Def getting 70 + on thursday, possibly 75, typical torch spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 beware the sea breeze tomorrow with light southerly flow and march ocean temps I'm at 58 degrees right now. A couple degrees above forecasted. I don't see an issue getting into the 70s Wed and Thurs. Tomorrow should get to the mid to upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I'll be surprised if March averages under +5 for the month. I think a +6 or +7 is more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I'm at 58 degrees right now. A couple degrees above forecasted. I don't see an issue getting into the 70s Wed and Thurs. Tomorrow should get to the mid to upper 60s. i don't disagree with 60's tomorrow but there will be a dive in temps after about 20z from the city eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 One of the top warmest second weeks of March that we have seen here with very impressive 7 day departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 60 in the park past 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I have a hard time trusting the modeling which shows a trough, -NAO etc for day 10-15--seen that before-this week for example looked cold and stormy 2 weeks ago and we're going to end up with historic warmth There's a good reason the NWS doesn't issue forecasts beyond 7 days - extremely high uncertainty that far out with chaotic systems (even deterministic ones). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Very rainy weekend on the 18z GFS with boundary stalled overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 beware the sea breeze tomorrow with light southerly flow and march ocean temps I agree. That's part of the reason I didn't post records for March 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Very rainy weekend on the 18z GFS with boundary stalled overhead. going to be interesting where that ends up-just to the north it's a river, while just south barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 63 and loverly...welcome spring...temps overperformed as I thought..will hit 70 tomorrow..maybe 80 on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 A high of 65 tomorrow before the sea breeze drops it back down into the low 50s would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 63 and loverly...welcome spring...temps overperformed as I thought..will hit 70 tomorrow..maybe 80 on Wednesday Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 beware the sea breeze tomorrow with light southerly flow and march ocean temps ...and today too..KFOK (and me for that matter)..stayed in the 40's today..gabeski had a high of 46*..winds were brisk out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Loop the EPS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016030712&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 61 already Mt Holly forecast highs for me Tuesday: 73 Wednesday: 76 Thursday: 79 Enjoy everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 61 already Mt Holly forecast highs for me Tuesday: 73 Wednesday: 76 Thursday: 79 Enjoy everyone I think everyday will bust high for NYC. Yesterday was supposed to be 55 degrees and NYC metro hit 60-63 degrees. Today is already up to 56-58 degrees. I would add 2-3 degrees to the NWS forecast for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Loop the EPS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2016030712&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Like yesterday, we are running warmer then modeled. NYC already 62 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 DECEMBER REDUX CONTINUES: Next 8 days including today, fiqures to be +17. 58 versus 41. If correct, this would make the first half of March about +9.3. ie. (8x17)+3 = 139/15. The 3 is the current surplus for the first 7 days. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Notes for rest of month: 3/15-16 near normal 3/18-23 another way above normal period. Near or below normal right at end of month. Meanwhile April keeps looking closer to normal to me on the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 65 in NYC already. Busted again. 70 is doable today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 65 in NYC already. Busted again. 70 is doable today. It's 64 here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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