bluewave Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Euro all out torch next week including the weekend. No back door either for sne It has a record high forecast temperature for NYC on March 9th of 71 degrees. Maybe we can tack on a few more degrees with the way these warm days have been exceeding guidance lately. March 9th NYC current top three warmest: 3/9 69 in 2000 66 in 1977 66 in 1921 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Euro all out torch next week including the weekend. No back door either for sne what's it look like for temp-I see 71 on the 9th but how about the rest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 what's it look like for temp-I see 71 on the 9th but how about the rest? GFSx is much lower now. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 It has a record high forecast temperature for NYC on March 9th of 71 degrees. Maybe we can tack on a few more degrees with the way these warm days have been exceeding guidance lately. March 9th NYC current top three warmest: 3/9 69 in 2000 66 in 1977 66 in 1921 Much different story when it comes to over performing on temps that warm, any flow that isn't west will not be enough this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Would be nice to have an early leaf out this year after the misery last spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 The next 7 days look rather mundane with temps well above average. The overnight ensemble package from both the GEFS and the EPS begin to breakdown the SE ridge putting us into a great pattern for stormy weather. The LLJ should position itself to crank from the Southern plains up the Apps and right into our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 12z GFS stalls the front overhead next week. One day in the 60's and then temperatures crash. Lots of rain south and snow north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 look all that snow in the mountains of Mexico you don't see that too often. Plus New England gets crushed next week with l according to this 12z GFS run Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Very active pattern setting up if the Southeast ridge relaxes just enough to keep the boundary overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Very active pattern setting up if the Southeast ridge relaxes just enough to keep the boundary overhead. Seasonal pattern says that boundary will end up further north initially than is being shown by the GFS. We may have to be patient for that SW cutoff low to get ejected NE to our region. EPS were slower with the the ejection but the rains eventually got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Seasonal pattern says that boundary will end up further north initially than is being shown by the GFS. We may have to be patient for that SW cutoff low to get ejected NE to our region. EPS were slower with the the ejection but the rains eventually got here. It starts off further North which is why we get that warm push mid-week. The GFS just starts dropping it South quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 It starts off further North which is why we get that warm push mid-week. The GFS just starts dropping it South quicker. The other models have more respect for the WAR so it takes longer for the boundary and the rains to get in here. But that SW cutoff and rains eventually kick east just slower than the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 The other models have more respect for the WAR so it takes longer for the boundary and the rains to get in here. But that SW cutoff and rains eventually kick east just slower than the GFS has. The 12z GEFS mean is a bit slower than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2016 Author Share Posted March 4, 2016 The 12z GEFS mean is a bit slower than the op.The operational GFS is notorious for speeding things up way too much and real bad busts especially during changes of season, in this case, wavelengths shortening, going into spring. It also tends to be way too cold in the long range and digs for gold with troughs, storms and fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 The operational GFS is notorious for speeding things up way too much and real bad busts especially during changes of season, in this case, wavelengths shortening, going into spring. It also tends to be way too cold in the long range and digs for gold with troughs, storms and fronts It's brutal in the summer with FROPAs, it'll show 5 days out a cold front crossing on Friday and it ends up coming across Saturday night or Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 12z euro 70-75 wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 12z euro 70-75 wed We'll see if the WAA can come in faster on Tuesday for some upper 60's to around 70 for Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 12z euro 70-75 wed that will bust some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 that will bust some records. Yeah, Wednesday has some of the lowest record highs of the week. NYC...3/8...76....3/9...69....3/10...74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 We'll see if the WAA can come in faster on Tuesday for some upper 60's to around 70 for Central Jersey. Yeah euro has 65-70 for tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Next sustained BN period not until 3/27---4/03(and more?). Closer to normal around the 16th., before rising again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Euro is on board with the rains post day 6. Looks like the 18z GFS is following the 12z GFS through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2016 Author Share Posted March 4, 2016 Euro is on board with the rains post day 6. Looks like the 18z GFS is following the 12z GFS through day 5.Mid March on starts cutoff low season, which I know you're a fan of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 GFS has some snow for inland areas at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 LOL Bastardi just tweeted about the Central Park snow measurement saying the DCA observer must have been there today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 GFS has some snow for inland areas at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Euro has more respect for the WAR this week and keeps the warm up going into Thursday before the backdoor arrives on Friday. Euro highs for NYC: Tuesday...........67 Wednesday......73.....new record Thursday..........73 The WAR maxing out near 579 DM close to NYC is approaching the strongest ever this early in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Do you have the equivalent chart for the 850mb Soundings at OKX? Could you post if you do. Thanks. Gonna need 12C for the low 70's I think at this time of year. GEFS stops just about at 10C for the mean on Wed. I assume the time frame starts with 1950 since upper air data sparse before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2016 Share Posted March 5, 2016 Do you have the equivalent chart for the 850mb Soundings at OKX? Could you post if you do. Thanks. Gonna need 12C for the low 70's I think at this time of year. GEFS stops just about at 10C for the mean on Wed. I assume the time frame starts with 1950 since upper air data sparse before that. NYC reached 71 on March 8th, 2012 with the 850's remaining below 10C. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2012/us0308.php NYC made it to 85 on 3/13/90 with 850's in the 12-13C range. The lower levels in 1990 were really warm with more of a SW to W flow. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1990/us0313.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Spring will be in full bloom by Wednesday with many areas especially away from the water seeing their first 70's of the season. This continues the extreme contrasts between warm and snow this winter since it's less than a week after it snowed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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