IsentropicLift Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This is just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 La Niñas depend more or less entirely on blocking and we've had none really the last 3-4 years. Nationally and globally though next winter will probably be an ice age relative to this oneNot even close to the time to even think about next winter but in the small sample size of Nina's that followed super Ninos, they have not been good winters (cold and snow) at all. What you absolutely do not want to see happen is the PDO flip negative this summer and fall. -PDO along with Nina's in general are very bad news, even without adding in the Nina's that followed super Ninos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Not even close to the time to even think about next winter but in the small sample size of Nina's that followed super Ninos, they have not been good winters (cold and snow) at all. What you absolutely do not want to see happen is the PDO flip negative this summer and fall. -PDO along with Nina's in general are very bad news, even without adding in the Nina's that followed super Ninos 83-84 was very cold but not here, more so in the middle of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Are we sure its going to flip to a Nina or is it possible that it could be a neutral state for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Are we sure its going to flip to a Nina or is it possible that it could be a neutral state for next winter? More possible than it appeared a few months ago but likely still a Niña. I think it's highly unlikely now we see a 88-89 98-99 or 10-11 La Niña, although I never was too big on that idea anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 More possible than it appeared a few months ago but likely still a Niña. I think it's highly unlikely now we see a 88-89 98-99 or 10-11 La Niña, although I never was too big on that idea anyway Thank you. I assume if its only a weak Nina, that would be better for our prospects next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Thank you. I assume if its only a weak Nina, that would be better for our prospects next winter. Holding onto the +PDO during a La Nina could also help as we saw in 84-85..95-96..and 05-06. So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the +PDO persisting. Would be nice to extend the NYC normal to above snowfall steak beyond the current 12 out of the last 16 winters. Only 4 below normal snowfall winters for NYC since 2000-2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Holding on to the +PDO during a La Nina would also help as we saw in 84-85..95-96..and 05-06. So it will be interesting to see if the models are correct about the +PDO persisting. Even if it doesn't it couldn't be as bad as the SST profile was out there in 98/99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 This is just insane Im aroused but dont know if I like being in the bullseye this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Even if it doesn't it couldn't be as bad as the SST profile was out there in 98/99 We'll see if the January +PDO predictor works out again. All the Januaries with a +1.50 or greater PDO like this year had a +PDO continue for the next winter. That -PDO +EPO combo really got tired before the flip in 2014 to +PDO -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Absolute downpour here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Both the GEFS and EPS extended the above normal temps from the second week of March right into the third as a Western Trough-Eastern Ridge pattern locks in. Thursday through Saturday or Sunday looks like some transient cold before we go above normal until further notice. A.png B.png Both of these models have done very poorly in the long range. I don't trust them beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 After the 8th. it is still looking like toasted marshmallows here till near the end of the month. April looks to be closer to normal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Somebody will hit 80 in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm trying to remember the last time we saw a cut off low in the Gulf in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Somebody will hit 80 in the metro I'd agree-some of these March/April warmups with no foliage/greenery can really over perform. March 1998 (another big nino) saw 5-7 days in the upper 70's and low 80's although that was closer to the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'd agree-some of these March/April warmups with no foliage/greenery can really over perform. March 1998 (another big nino) saw 5-7 days in the upper 70's and low 80's although that was closer to the end of the month 1998 holds the record for most 80° days in March with 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 the most above average max in March was 85 on 3/13/1990...1945 and 1998 had a max of 86 but it came later in the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gefs develops blocking near st pattys day. Maybe some snow at the of march? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Hopefully the WAR ends up setting up shop further East and we get into a wonderfully wet and stormy period. Otherwise it's going to be a mainly boring next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gefs develops blocking near st pattys day. Maybe some snow at the of march? give it up-it's always 10-15 days away and even if it did, it's pacific air so we'd get 50 and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 give it up-it's always 10-15 days away and even if it did, it's pacific air so we'd get 50 and drizzle. We still can snow in late march early april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Gefs develops blocking near st pattys day. Maybe some snow at the of march?Did you look at the Pacific? Even if there is an -NAO and -AO, what good are they going to do with a Pacific that looks like that? Where is the cold going to come from? There is a super +EPO being shown. That will open the floodgates for Pacific maritime air to flood Canada (source region) and the CONUS and all the NAO and AO blocking will do is bring down Pacific air. The +EPO will overwhelm and steamroll the Atlantic and arctic blocking since our weather moves west to east. Plus mid to late March? Climo is stacked so badly against you it's not funny. You have the equivalent of a September sun angle and long daylight hours to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Somebody will hit 80 in the metro EWR obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Back to the Northeast perm-ridge pattern which produced the record warmth here from May to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Huge +EPO there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Since March 5th or 6th could be the last time we see a 32 or less, does anyone know if this is the earliest quitting time for a low of 32? That March 10 500mb chart looks like a modified version of the March 29, 1998 period, called by 'some meteorologist' an artificially induced WAR in a weather wars experiment. Here is a brief mention of the spring heatwave: http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/1998Mar_Report.pdf But not what I was searching for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Since March 5th or 6th could be the last time we see a 32 or less, does anyone know if this is the earliest quitting time for a low of 32? That March 10 500mb chart looks like a modified version of the March 29, 1998 period, called by 'some meteorologist' an artificially induced WAR in a weather wars experiment. Here is a brief mention of the spring heatwave: http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACON_Files/1998Mar_Report.pdf But not what I was searching for. Feb. 28th, 1942... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Thanks UncleW. Starting with March 8th. there still seems no chance for a below normal day till near the 30th. Looks like just another month with a mere 6 or so below days to its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Euro all out torch next week including the weekend. No back door either for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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