Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 817
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Fire weather!!! Hope people realize this

I was out riding (mt biking) today and a couple of other times in the last week.  The soil is still plenty moist, actually still mud in most spots, under the leaves from last fall but they are bone dry as are all of the downed trees and such.  If a fire were to get going it would be a short lived but seriously damaging event because there is no new growth yet for this year to moisten the standing forest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With this morning's 52° reading, NYC has set a new record for most 50° days in March at 25. The previous record was 24, which was set in 2012. The month is on track to finish with a temperature anomaly of 6.3° above normal. 

Amazing torch.   Vegetation is about 2 weeks ahead of schedule around here as a result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GFS has some snow for Monday night for the far northern suburbs, and pretty cold temperatures everywhere. It's a crazy temperature roller coaster between Monday morning and afternoon, and then again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GFS has some snow for Monday night, and pretty cold temperatures everywhere. It's a crazy temperature roller coaster between Monday morning and afternoon, and then again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Are we looking at the same 12z GFS? It's showing even southern New England as rain showers, maybe flakes mix in with rain for them, you don't get into all snow until central and northern New England
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are we looking at the same 12z GFS? It's showing even southern New England as rain showers, maybe flakes mix in with rain for them, you don't get into all snow until central and northern New England

I edited it, as I intended to write northern suburbs, no need to be so testy. Weenie show maps certainly shows some snow for areas to our north, I never said accumulating snow. Either way, it's showing temperatures in the teens for you Tuesday morning, and that is probably the last vestige of winter.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With this morning's 52° reading, NYC has set a new record for most 50° days in March at 25. The previous record was 24, which was set in 2012. The month is on track to finish with a temperature anomaly of 6.3° above normal. 

 

Also the 4th top ten warmest March for NYC since 2000.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With today's high temperature of 71° through 2 pm, New York City's mean temperature for March is 48.8° (+6.3°). That makes March 2016 the 4th warmest on record. Were the high temperature to reach 74°, the mean temperature would come to 48.9°.

March2016_Temps.jpg

And 6 of the top 10 were a long time ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Amazing 3 of the warmest Marches in the top ten were in the last 6 years.

 

And despite the 4th warmest March on record, still couldn't beat the warmth this past December.

Pretty impressive stat when you consider that the average December temperature in NYC is

5 degrees colder than March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And despite the 4th warmest March on record, still couldn't beat the warmth this past December.

Pretty impressive stat when you consider that the average December temperature in NYC is

5 degrees colder than March.

 

That's one of the most astonishing things I've ever seen following this hobby.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

Yeah, our average temperatures since last April have been closer to normal for the area around Richmond, Virginia

instead of NYC. Sections of area saw the first East Coast 40/40 winter since Norfolk in 79-80.

 

Because of the UHI...there really isn't that much difference between the mean daily low at Richmond v NYC LGA, anyways.

 

 

Based on 1981 - 2010 normals...the average daily low temperature (for the entire calendar year) at Richmond is actually lower than at NYC LGA....(48.1 F for Richmond....48.2 F for NYC LGA).  This essentially debunks half of your claim.

 

 

So what appears "remarkable" really isn't...if one looks hard enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Because of the UHI...there really isn't that much difference between the mean daily low at Richmond v NYC LGA, anyways.

Based on 1981 - 2010 normals...the average daily low temperature (for the entire calendar year) at Richmond is actually lower than at NYC LGA....(48.1 F for Richmond....48.2 F for NYC LGA). This essentially debunks half of your claim.

So what appears "remarkable" really isn't...if one looks hard enough.

Central Park's average low at that timeframe is 47.9, but the difference is negligible. A more comparable city would be DC, which averages a full degree and a half more than us on the average low for the calendar year.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Because of the UHI...there really isn't that much difference between the mean daily low at Richmond v NYC LGA, anyways.

 

 

Based on 1981 - 2010 normals...the average daily low temperature (for the entire calendar year) at Richmond is actually lower than at NYC LGA....(48.1 F for Richmond....48.2 F for NYC LGA).  This essentially debunks half of your claim.

 

 

So what appears "remarkable" really isn't...if one looks hard enough.

 

If you think that the record warmth here since last April hasn't been remarkable, then there is very little left to say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you think that the record warmth here since last April hasn't been remarkable, then there is very little left to say.

Yeah, they're really nitpicking. NYC's average temperature is actually 3.9 degrees lower than that of Richmond, to pick out LGA's average low gives almost no perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The point he/she was trying to make was the average temperature in NYC during that time has been comparable to that in Richmond Virginia which does have an average temperature significantly higher than NYC's. Their climates are very different, Richmond has never received more than 28 inches of snow in a season, NYC's historical average is 28.8.

I know NYC has an extreme UHI effect but let's not be drawing comparisons in their climate to Richmond, they are not comparable. The average winter months are 5-6 degrees higher on average in Richmond.

That we are even have this discussion is a testament to how freaking mild the last 12 months have been.

That's just for the low though, the actual temperature difference is close to 4 degrees. We all know that UHI prevents NYC from getting the low temperatures typical for this area, but overall the average temperature is significantly cooler than Richmond (4 degrees average over a calendar year is a lot)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, he's really nitpicking. NYC's average temperature is actually 3.9 degrees lower than that of Richmond, to pick out LGA's average low gives almost no perspective.

 

Yeah, the perspective is the record warmth over this period for our area.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Pamela

That's just for the low though, the actual temperature difference is close to 4 degrees. We all know that UHI prevents NYC from getting the low temperatures typical for this area, but overall the average temperature is significantly cooler than Richmond (4 degrees average over a calendar year is a lot)

 

Maybe there is a UHI in Richmond?  Did you ever consider that possibility?  I never argued that the temperatures in NYC have not averaged above normal over the last 12 months.  I argued that verbal legerdemain can turn something interesting but really rather pedestrian into what appears to be an astounding anomaly...once again, if the average lows are the same, half the argument about how hot it has been falls flat...because the locations have the same average low to begin with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...