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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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April now looks like a below normal temperature month.   After one more warmup this month 24-27, temps head south along with average 500mb heights.  Mean 500mb heights below the normal line for the entire month into May.   Also more area under the normal for the ensemble output.

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With this week having wound up warmer than had been indicated on the MOS, NYC remains on course for a much warmer than normal March (~5° above normal). The short period of colder than normal weather from this weekend into early next week won't alter that outcome, especially as a big rebound in temperatures appears likely afterward.

 

March201603182016.jpg

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if we get any snow at all March 2016 could become the snowiest of the warmest March's on record...2016 has 0.4" so far but that was under measured in Central Park...

warmest March's and total monthly snowfall...

warmest.....max min snowfall...
51.1 1945...86.....26.....trace
50.9 2012...78.....25.....none
49.8 1946...79.....26.....trace

48.9 2016...79.....26.....0.4" as of 3/17
48.4 1921...84.....26.....trace...0.1" in April...
48.2 2010...74.....29.....trace
47.8 1903...70.....28.....none
47.7 2000...69.....22.....0.4".....1.2" in April...
46.9 1979...76.....20.....trace
46.8 1977...81.....24.....0.6"
46.4 1973...66.....30.....0.2"

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if we get any snow at all March 2016 could become the snowiest of the warmest March's on record...2016 has 0.4" so far but that was under measured in Central Park...

warmest March's and total monthly snowfall...

warmest.....max min snowfall...

51.1 1945...86.....26.....trace

50.9 2012...78.....25.....none

49.8 1946...79.....26.....trace

48.9 2016...79.....26.....0.4" as of 3/17

48.4 1921...84.....26.....trace...0.1" in April...

48.2 2010...74.....29.....trace

47.8 1903...70.....28.....none

47.7 2000...69.....22.....0.4".....1.2" in April...

46.9 1979...76.....20.....trace

46.8 1977...81.....24.....0.6"

46.4 1973...66.....30.....0.2"

 

I wonder what the previous max snowfall was in March following the first 79 of the season at NYC and 82 at EWR? Maybe the heaviest after spring heat would be the trace of snow in May 77 after the 84 degrees  a few days earlier.

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I wonder what the previous max snowfall was in March following the first 79 of the season at NYC and 82 at EWR? Maybe the heaviest after spring heat would be the trace of snow in May 77 after the 84 degrees  a few days earlier.

1977 had the earliest 90 degree day on record (since broken) after a 25 degree day a few days before...snow on May 9th and 90 again about ten days later...in April 2000 it was 80 degrees on staten island and it snowed the next morning...

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I think it will be rather moist at times with the Gulf open for business.

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_64.png

you keep posting this map and calling for wet periods and here we are with every major nyc area asos more than an inch below average for the month. stop.
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wettest and driest Springs in NYC

29.15" in 1983......4.95" in 1885
22.66" in 1984......5.06" in 1935
21.00" in 1980......6.20" in 1887
20.28" in 2007......6.39" in 1995
19.43" in 1989......6.60" in 1905
19.07" in 1998......6.81" in 1926
18.31" in 1953......6.97" in 1965
17.86" in 1990......7.01" in 1959
17.80" in 1940......7.04" in 1963
16.86" in 1972......7.05" in 1950

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At least the strong Nina would be better for Hurricanes and you can't rule out something coming up this way when the ridge relaxes, like a 99' redux.

Would be exciting to have some storms to track this year.  Been a quiet decade outside of the local effects of Sandy and Irene

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1977 had the earliest 90 degree day on record (since broken) after a 25 degree day a few days before...snow on May 9th and 90 again about ten days later...in April 2000 it was 80 degrees on staten island and it snowed the next morning...

Yes April of 2000 had a high temp of 79 on the 8th followed by rain early on the 9th changing to snow around 8 am and continuing till 1pm, accumulating 2.8" here.
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Yes April of 2000 had a high temp of 79 on the 8th followed by rain early on the 9th changing to snow around 8 am and continuing till 1pm, accumulating 2.8" here.

 

ORH in May 1977 was really dramatic. The historic May 1977 snowstorm dropped 12.7" several days after reaching 81.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-C72393A3-EFAA-46A2-9F79-CFBE2EA2616A.pdf

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Wow, these are some amazing stories. This just proves it can snow into April, even if it was 80° the day before.

Yes. So much for the warm ground crying yesterday. No problem accumulating at all, even on roads out here. Everything was snow covered.

So let this be a lesson, if it snows hard enough and its cold enough, it doesnt matter how warm the ground was before hand.

But it seems like this argument is repeated every year. Its incredible how people never learn.

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Yes. So much for the warm ground crying yesterday. No problem accumulating at all, even on roads out here. Everything was snow covered.

So let this be a lesson, if it snows hard enough and its cold enough, it doesnt matter how warm the ground was before hand.

But it seems like this argument is repeated every year. Its incredible how people never learn.

Yeah unfortunately we never really got into the heavier rates like you guys did. No accumulations even on grass only on some car tops including mine lol
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Yeah unfortunately we never really got into the heavier rates like you guys did. No accumulations even on grass only on some car tops including mine lol

Yea we lucked out.

My daughter woke me up at 5 am and it was just pouring snow, huge flakes. Temp also managed to go to 31. I was shocked to see that considering how bad radar looked when I went to sleep

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Yea we lucked out.

My daughter woke me up at 5 am and it was just pouring snow, huge flakes. Temp also managed to go to 31. I was shocked to see that considering how bad radar looked when I went to sleep

Yeah same here except I woke up randomly lol. I still ended with 1.2 inches here which was surprising
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