IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I wonder if we get a stronger more consolidated low rather than the Euro two LP centers east of Hatteras for a time? This is what I was talking about. Can not post the Euro maps but the GFS did basically the same thing. You have two heavier areas of precip, one well SE of the center and one tucked into the coast. Then eventually the one closer takes over. This IMO is the models transitioning to a closer to the coast outcome. Final result will be one consolidated system south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 The nice thing about this storm is the size of the precip field. Moderate snows extend well back into E PA and up into the Albany CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Winds are pretty strong on the Euro as well. Sustained 35-40kts at the coast Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z JMA is a major hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Lots of very nice GGEM individual members here. https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Top analog from Cips is 2-12-06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Wait for 0z tonight and more so 12z tomorrow before you get emotionally attached to Sun/Mon. Look at how things dramatically changed in just 12 hours. The threat is still OTS with this and not cutting inland, like some on social media are saying today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Wait for 0z tonight and more so 12z tomorrow before you get emotionally attached to Sun/Mon. Look at how things dramatically changed in just 12 hours. The threat is still OTS with this and not cutting inland, like some on social media are saying today Pretty sure the Pac vort was in a well sampled area for the 1st time today. But I agree to let 2-3 more cycles occur, before getting too attached to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z EPS mean is gorgeous. Tracks nearly right over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Wait for 0z tonight and more so 12z tomorrow before you get emotionally attached to Sun/Mon. Look at how things dramatically changed in just 12 hours. The threat is still OTS with this and not cutting inland, like some on social media are saying today Might want to take your own advice there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z EPS mean is gorgeous. Tracks nearly right over the BM.Not that I believe it, but it moved so far NW from the last run that southern New England is close to having changeover issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 so if this happens, whats the time frame? sunday morning - sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 so if this happens, whats the time frame? sunday morning - sunday night? Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z EPS mean is gorgeous. Tracks nearly right over the BM. Plenty of Gulf Stream SST rocket fuel available near the BM. Several members are really deep on the pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Plenty of Gulf Stream SST rocket fuel available near the BM. Several members are really deep on the pressure. midatl_oisst_anom_20160315.png Recent warm up of SST due to Early march torch will help out too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 BTW some t-storms approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 OPC 96hr surface prog 980 mb bombo-g thru the benchmark Forecaster--- "I can feel it in the air tonight" -Collins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Those storms are going to go up in smoke as soon as they enter into that are influenced by SE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Impressive amount of lightning with that line of showers and thunderstorms across western NJ and eastern PA on strikestar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Those storms are going to go up in smoke as soon as they enter into that are influenced by SE flow what else is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Thundering here..not expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I'm hearing a lot of rumbling ahead of this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Rolling thunder in West Milford. Did not expect that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 cells briefly strengthened hitting the sea breeze boundary near and SW of New Brunswick but they likely will die as they get off and east of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Nice deluge and several CTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Had a nice soaker here. Thunder shook the house pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Loudest boom I've heard in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Just heard some thunder here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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