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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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That Western Atlantic Ridge continues to call the shots. The EPS mean 500 mb heights 

are near record levels for early March. Those Euro temps in the 70's would also be

able to set daily high temperature records.

 

 

 

 

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It looks to me as if the month will prove much warmer than normal. The first week will very likely be cooler than normal, but that likely won't be enough to avoid another warmer than normal month. The ensembles continue to suggest that next week might see the first 70° reading in New York City since December 24.

 

NYC03012016.jpg

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It looks to me as if the month will prove much warmer than normal. he first week will very likely be cooler than normal, but that likely won't be enough to avoid another warmer than normal month. The ensembles continue to suggest that next week might see the first 70° reading in New York City since December 24.

 

NYC03012016.jpg

 

This most recent 2000's warm streak which began last April has been really impressive.

 

NYC monthly departures:

 

4/15.....+1.2

5/15.....+6.1

6/15......-0.2

7/15......+2.3

8/15......+3.8

9/15......+6.5

10/15....+1.1

11/15.....+5.1

12/15....+13.1

1/16......+1.9

2/16......+2.4

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It is probably 'Blazing Saddles' here after the 8th.,  till near month's end.  Might be wet at first.

March will make 12 consecutive months w/o a below normal one, if we excuse June's slight misstep of -0.20.

LR analog models show this continuing forever, though another miscue is possible, while some sort of ridging near EC remains the motif.  SST may return to normal and aid us a little.

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I hope we can get at least some snow Thursday night into Friday given what lies ahead next week.

 

There is a front end with the 1st piece  . Then the EURO likes the clipper Sunday . After that , TBH I just want to step on the gas and rip right into spring/summer .

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There is a front end with the 1st piece  . Then the EURO likes the clipper Sunday . After that , TBH I just want to step on the gas and rip right into spring/summer .

Those possible events may be our last chance for measurable snow for at least awhile. I'm hesitant to say until next winter, as some waning El Niños have had snow in April. I suspect we're in one of those self-driving cars that will race into spring/summer next week whether we're ready or not.

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