SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Another warm month no surprise here. Growth is weeks ahead of last year. Still expect +5 to +6 when all is said and done due to another strong warm up. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 80 or two pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Another warm month no surprise here. Growth is weeks ahead of last year. Still expect +5 to +6 when all is said and done due to another strong warm up. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 80 or two pop up. Euro is pumping that ridge in the east by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2015-16 was 9.3 degree higher for Dec/Jan/Feb than 2014-15...March could be +9 over last years average...This is not a record but close...1879-80 was +9.3 over 1878-79...1880-81 was -11.9 from 1879-80... 1918-19 was +10.9 over 1917-18... 1936-37 was + 9.6 over 1935-36... 2002-03 was -10.3 from 2001-02... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 It would be a shame that we would miss 2 big storms in a row due to the breaking down of the ridge out west. The northern stream also has to dive in quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2015-16 was 9.3 degree higher for Dec/Jan/Feb than 2014-15...March could be +9 over last years average...This is not a record but close...1879-80 was +9.3 over 1878-79...1880-81 was -11.9 from 1879-80... 1918-19 was +10.9 over 1917-18... 1936-37 was + 9.6 over 1935-36... 2002-03 was -10.3 from 2001-02... Yeah, and JFK has nearly the same amount of snow as last year despite the much warmer winter. 14-15....44.1" 15-16....40.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Yeah, and JFK has nearly the same amount of snow as last year despite the much warmer winter. 14-15....44.1" 15-16....40.9" it's almost like1948-49 which was +8.5 over 1947-48 with well above average snowfall and a big December snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Nam is really amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Another warm month no surprise here. Growth is weeks ahead of last year. Still expect +5 to +6 when all is said and done due to another strong warm up. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 80 or two pop up.Already seeing cherry blossoms and magnolia, absurd for mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Seeing the NAM amped up at this range is a good sign. With the system that missed OTS a few weeks ago, the NAM was flat from the beginning which was a telltale sign. Not the case here, and in fact it's actually slower and more amplified than the 06z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GFS is very amped with nice ridge out west. The storm will def be west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Trough still postive hr 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Hr 108 trough goes negative a bit too late for ideal still mod snow breaking out along the coast Sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2-4 for the metro area and 6+ LI it closes off to our northeast Sne going to get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Another tick west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Hopefully this is the trend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Temps are plenty cold below 32 for the area brunt of storm is Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 A little more digging at h5 this would have been big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Major cave by the GFS. If you look at what's going on at H5, this tells you all you need to know. The surface low track will follow the jet stream. Here at hour 108 you can see an intensifying jet streak just off the Delmarva. Six hours later and that same strengthening jet streak is South of LI and attempting to close off. Then six hours later it's in the Gulf of Maine. What this tells me is that the eventual surface low track should be from right on the Delmarva Coast, to just off the NJ coast, to right over or very near the BM. Right now the surface is not catching up to what's going on aloft, but I suspect it will over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Gfs certainly was interesting and yes this will be a case of snow vs OTS. Maybe the fact that it's March might help us out too regarding the wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 The surface low in this frame should be almost due South of the twin forks, just East of where it's trying to close off the mid-level center. Instead it's about 75-100 miles too far East, with huge implications for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Major improvements in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Looking upstream not much in the way of any noticeable shortwave kickers that could screw this up. The main wildcard is if a disturbance pinwheels out of the low off the PAC NW and knocks the western ridge down. Overall though it looks like it would happen too late. I think at worst this is a near miss (or at best if you're a snow hater) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 One thing I will say, if this ends up working out, and the area receives a significant snowstorm, all of the ingredients will be on the table for significant flooding towards the end of next week with reservoirs near capacity, a significant snowpack and the potential for areas to reach well into the 50's if not 60's by the middle of the week. And we have at least one cutter coming behind this, if not two as the SE ridge reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Tons of wind with this one too. This is 10m winds or near surface. If this comes far enough West for the area to get into the CCB, it could be similar to Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 One side note, the Upper Level Jet is extremely flat which might be causing some track issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 The 12z GGEM is much further West. 974 just South of the BM. E LI gets brushed with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Nice analysis isentropic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM Is still eastIt's further west but not enough just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM Is still east It's well NW of 00z. Major improvements all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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