PB GFI Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Upton Long Range - read it and weep LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS IS THE FURTHEREST EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH A LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND HINGES ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR TO THE COAST. LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF TRACK ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW AND RAIN INLAND. HUH . ATROCIOUS REASONING . KNYC ? 132 850 - 6 925 - 2 138 850 - 6 925 - 2 BL 34 DP 27 144 850 - 4 925 - 2 BL 35 DP 26 Not that anyone should look at these layers 5 days out , but that is just awful reasoning -6 at 850 with mid 20 dew points what happens at the BL with all that precip on the EPS ? The mean at KNYC on the EPS is .7 The BL would not look like that . that's not warm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 You just can't ask for a better looking day 6 EPS mean in late March. Any snow accumulation after the first 80 of spring is a big win in my book and would match the snow in a sea of warm pattern this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I guess this is like a house money threat. If it happens we win but if not then we still win because it's essentially spring anyway and the winter wasn't a disaster. Would be nice to see a big March storm for once, it's such a unique powder keg month when things align perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 EURO ENS-http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016031512/ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_atl_7.png GEFS ENS-http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016031512/gfs-ens_z500_mslp_atl_25.png GEM ENS-http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016031512/gem-ens_z500_mslp_atl_25.png Monday 8:00 am DST comps pull for the euro position with the Atlantic HP (WAR) with the strength (1030mb HP) of the GEFS ENS for the best results not the best of setups ATM for a solid BM track -- imho-- you can clearly see the GEFS and the GEM ENS try and build that lobe of HP the Euro ENS has progged UPDATED 18Z GEFS on the bubble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Gefs idv have a few big hits for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I won't pick it apart...looks good this far out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016031518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 EPS members. Threw in the control for good measure. Honestly you probably couldn't get a better look then that six days out. Since the blizzard we have had zero luck so my gut tells me something will mess this up. Obviously I could be very wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Gulf Data Flights ---Non Tasked Mission http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2016 Energy for our system will build from here.... my vibes say we are in for a ride with this bugger http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/h5-loop-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 WPC says BUCKLE UP METRO 992mb on the Benchmark http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lhwbg_conus.gif Double Barrel PAC energy feed into the gulf states ATM worth a look... http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=s_pacific-wv-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 0z GFS is still very flat and ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Bet this place fills up with visitors after Today's 12Z data http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php text For Friday March 18 - Tuesday March 22: At the start of the period a frontal system is expected to be stalled along the Gulf Coast. This is anticipated to act as a focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms and heavy rain (in excess of an inch in 24 hours) for parts of the southern lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Mar 18-19. This rainfall would aggravate and extend river flooding that is already occurring for parts of those regions. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front on Mar 20 and move north/northeastward near the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low pressure system is expected to deepen as is moves along the Mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts. This evolution is expected to cause heavy rain (in excess of 1 inch in 24 hours) for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast Mar 20-21, and heavy snow (in excess of 4 inches in 24 hours)for inland sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. high winds are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts Mar 20-21 but large model uncertainty precludes the specification of a hazard shape at the current time. It should also be noted that the latest 12Z GFS run moves the low pressure system much further east, significantly reducing the threat of heavy precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Ukie is way OTS. Ridge breaks down out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Ukie is way OTS. Ridge breaks down out west. Poor trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Poor trends tonight. Yes sir but thank god it's still early. The key is the ridge in the west. The Ukie breaks it down which sends the storm right OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GEFS way OTS now along with the Navgem being east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What happened to the GGEM tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 What happened to the GGEM tonight? GGEM is west of 12z and grazes the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM is west of 12z and grazes the coast With the other models looking worse, at least one trended better tonight. Hopefully the Euro will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 With the other models looking worse, at least one trended better tonight. Hopefully the Euro will too. Plenty of time for a shft in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM was also the last to cave last time, wouldn't trust it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM snow map shows about 1 inch for NYC and a few inches for the eastern half of LI. I know its not the best model but we have a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Euro shifted east and looks like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Eps and control also shifted east. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 0Z GFS OP slides her back to the west a bit small subtle shifts with this system will make all the difference.... ESRL look in----on the edge http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f120_us.html EURO ENS Atlantic prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Eps and control also shifted east. Not good.Not only the Euro and EPS, the CMC ensembles, GFS, GEFS, and Ukie, all misses OTS. This one ain't coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 If only the dgex was a great model. It shifted west and tucks in the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Plenty of time for a shft in either direction. Enlightening...... As the theme with many of the easterly misses this year as we have gotten closer we started to see LP show up in SE Canada near the lakes. When that happens just say goodnight. You want to see HP sitting over the top of you otherwise you just kick another system east. To say "there is time " doesn't really explain (the why ) very well Anth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 06z GFS went West and brushed the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Not only the Euro and EPS, the CMC ensembles, GFS, GEFS, and Ukie, all misses OTS. This one ain't coming back Bold call 120 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Through 9 am this morning, NYC has a March temperature anomaly of 8.1° above normal. By day's end, the anomaly will probably be in the +8.3° to +8.4° range. Despite the upcoming cold shot and opportunity for some snowfall (not assured, but still a possibility per some of the guidance), March remains on track to finish solidly above normal. The latest scenarios based on the actual readings to date through March 15 and March 16-22 MOS forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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