IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 what do you want ? First priority is a crippling blizzard for everyone. Second priority are biblical rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Ggem has a low off the sc coast on Sunday looks like it would be a brush up here. Similar to 00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 GGEM is going to be a mega bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Ggem has a low off the sc coast on Sunday looks like it would be a brush up here. Similar to 00z euro It's going to cutoff at H5 and come right up the coast. Edit, just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Wouldn't this be one of the times we need the WAR to flex it's muscles or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The ukie has had a great winter. Wish we can lock that in. The euro should come back west a 12z with the ukie and eps west of op from last night I like the look of that at 144 hrs since its often too far SE with coastals at this range. 12Z Euro could be a real head turner if the UKIE is this amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Ggem looks like the set up for the blizzard from January. Closes off about 100 miles further south and crushes the mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I like the look of that at 144 hrs since its often too far SE with coastals at this range. 12Z Euro could be a real head turner if the UKIE is this amped up. Ggem was real close just cuts off to far south and gives the mod Atlantic a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Ggem was real close just cuts off to far south and gives the mod Atlantic a blizzard The 12z UKMET was more tucked in to the coast than the 0Z Euro was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 GEFS looks good this far out. I hope we get that nw trend we've had all year around Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 ggem ensembles se of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The 12z ECMWF is a lot slower than 00z matching the other newer guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Euro is another step in the right direction but it doesn't quite get it done at H5 which would have really delivered the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 You've got a ton of northern stream energy that's dropping in but it's too separated to get a clean phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The precip shield is NW of NYC by 03z Monday. Moderate precip confined to SNJ and the twin forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 light snow for the area sunday night. 994 just a bit east. Very nice run for six days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Ends up being a fairly nice hit for the immediate NJ coast and SE LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 turns out to be a hair away from a blizzard for this sub forum 3-6/4-8 type event. very strong storm sub 980 outside the bm with a congrats LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 That wasn't a bad look at all 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 985mb well SE of the BM by Monday morning. 0.25"+ contour back to Sussex, NJ and Allentown, PA. 0.50"+ for SNJ and E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 All of Suffolk ends up with 0.50"+ with the South fork 0.75"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 If this slows down a few more hours, that will allow the trailing energy to fully phase, and you're going to end up with a mega bomb, tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Just a 12-24 hr faster phasing between the northern and southern streams would result in a deeper more consolidated low closer in to the coast. It could turn out to be the Euro holding too much energy back bias slowing the phase since the southern stream lags. The UKIE brings the southern stream out faster allowing a quicker phase and storm track closer to BM. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The great thing about this coming potential is that the storm seems to move in during the nighttime hours limiting the sun angle problems. This could become a very strong storm if in facts trends another 75 miles west. We're talking about a foot to two feet of snow to finish this interesting winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Jma looks really amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 EPS look more NW than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Upton Long Range - read it and weep LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS IS THE FURTHEREST EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH A LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND HINGES ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR TO THE COAST. LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF TRACK ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW AND RAIN INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 EPS look more NW than the op Alot of nice members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 Upton Long Range - read it and weep LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE TRACK OF THE LOW STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS IS THE FURTHEREST EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS TRACKED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH A LOW TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND HINGES ON THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR TO THE COAST. LEANING TOWARD A ECMWF TRACK ALSO LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND SNOW AND RAIN INLAND. The threat with this storm is OTS/miss, not rain IMO. If the models start to go out to sea with it, they won't come back. The WAR is not the threat this time for a change.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 EPS look more NW than the op just outside the bm. The idv have some massive hits for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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