MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 18z PARA was way OTS. Yep so is the 0z GFS. GFS is also colder than previous runs. I wonder if it's overdoing the cold or just squashing the southern stream energy ( bias ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z GGEM went from an inland runner to OTS. Storm is offshore. Long week ahead with these models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Seems like the models are getting colder for the storm. I wonder if it has to do with stronger confluence to the north thanks to the -NAO and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Good grief. Now even the Euro has it well ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Euro ensembles are still right near the BM. The GEFS also have members that seem to be west as well. Certainly one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_us.html me gusta la nieve and walk thru the pasta frames for good measure http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f096_us.html it should be fun to track colder sig in place atm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850std1_f120_usbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 WPC day 6-7 qpf Sunday thru Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The new GFS parallel is also on board with a rapidly deepening low to the SE. Good to see a system right where we want it at this range on the Euro and EPS so a NW trend under 5 days would work to our advantage. Another snow would be the cherry on top of the already snowiest warm winter on record. Earliest March 80 followed by a winter storm threat would just add to the extremes that we have seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The new GFS parallel is also on board with a rapidly deepening low to the SE. Good to see a system right where we want it at this range on the Euro and EPS so a NW trend under 5 days would work to our advantage. Another snow would be the cherry on top of the already snowiest warm winter on record. Earliest March 80 followed by a winter storm threat would just add to the extremes that we have seen this winter. pgfs_mslp_plev_conus_26.png Here is the Low res control /Canadian ensembles / UKMET just looks slower out of the SE The EPS is east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Here is the Low res control /Canadian ensembles / UKMET just looks slower out of the SE The EPS is east . The amount of fuel out there is unbelievable with the Gulf Stream tucked in more NW. Really hoping we can get a BM or close track once all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 That's a great look on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I always wanted to experience a blizzard of 1888 redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 I always wanted to experience a blizzard of 1888 redux Just hoping that this can get back further NW in later runs so we don't look at another hurricane force system to our east like on the 5th. But any accumulating snow would be a big a deal following the first 80 degree heat of the season. It would match the snowiest warmest winter theme where places like JFK went 40-40. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/20879 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Just hoping that this can get back further NW in later runs so we don't look at another hurricane force system to our east like on the 5th. But any accumulating snow would be a big a deal following the first 80 degree heat of the season. It would match the snowiest warmest winter theme where places like JFK went 40-40. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/20879 This storms track and intensity might end up being similar to the March 19 -21, 1958 storm which caught most people by surprise including METS - Areas of the metro ended up with over a foot of snow with temps being above freezing a good portion of the storm - http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1958/3/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 NAO Not that negative as it showed yesterday AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The PNA might be the problem here. The ridge out west has to hold instead of flattening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 NAO Not that negative as it showed yesterday AO both the AO and NAO should be considered to be Neutral for this event - In order for the coast to receive any snow out of this the track and intensity has to be perfect - odds still favor mostly rain along the coast IMO - someone not too far away from the coast should receive significant snow......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The PNA might be the problem here. The ridge out west has to hold instead of flattening out. So the AO - NAO - and PNA are forecasted to be very close to neutral - interesting - anyone know what the indicies looked like for the March 19 -21 , 1958 storm ? Trying to see if this storm is a good analog http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif MJO is near stage 3 - forecasted to go into 4 or 5 but close to the COD - whichever run of it you believe in http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 15, 2016 Author Share Posted March 15, 2016 So the AO - NAO - and PNA are forecasted to be very close to neutral - interesting - anyone know what the indicies looked like for the March 19 -21 , 1958 storm ? Trying to see if this storm is a good analog http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif MJO is near stage 3 - forecasted to go into 4 or 5 but close to the COD - whichever run of it you believe in http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml There was a very strong -NAO and -AO back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 There was a very strong -NAO and -AO back then That explains the slow movement of the storm and why the 1958 storm was a long lasting event - so the 1958 storm is not a good analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The GFS is much slower this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Still way OTS but a much better look at H5. Step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Still way OTS but a much better look at H5. Step in the right direction. Agree. I like the look six days out. This has potential with 50/50 and neg nao in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Things are close enough now that we actually get some snow from the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Things are close enough now that we actually get some snow from the ULL. problem with this storm is you need a perfect track and enough intensity to get snow along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The 12Z UKIE really amped through 120 with low forming in GOM and bombing NE of VA Capes 144. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 problem with this storm is you need a perfect track and enogh intensity to get snow along the coast We want two different things my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 Then there is this model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 We want two different things my friend. what do you want ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 The 12Z UKIE really amped through 120 with low forming in GOM and bombing NE of VA Capes 144. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 The ukie has had a great winter. Wish we can lock that in. The euro should come back west a 12z with the ukie and eps west of op from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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