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March 2016 Forecasts, Disco


snowman19

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It's elevation based. MMU is close to where the higher elevations of NW NJ begin.

Where I live in the valley it's probably an inch or two of slop and up in West Milford twenty miles away a blizzard.

Im only a few miles from the West Milford border. Probably about 12 from the inside parts of town.

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Yep. Most of the ensembles were ots.

The GFS will trend back towards the Euro solution in the next day or so -GFS did the same nonsense with the storm a couple weeks ago -  this is increasingly looking like a storm that will pass east of the metro - the exact track and intensity will determine precip type for select locations in the metro - the March 19 - 21, 1958 storm got down to 29.33 in the metro area and the 12Z Euro is showing strengthening storm coming up the coast with pressures close to the 1958 storm or lower

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1958/3/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

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The Yankees home opener is another back in 99 or 2000? I had 5-6 inches and the city had nothing because of it being a concrete jungle

 

For Yankee fans in their 30s/40s, its amazing how this new snowy era started literally the same season as the Yankees recent era.  Even going back to the 70s and 80s you could say that 77 78 were big snow and yankees years, then a big drought for snow and yankees world series til 1996,  except for a one shot deal in the 80s (one early 80s ws appearance and one blizzard - 83.)  

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Day 5  Location  The Big Easy

for our March 21st  threat progs

 

 

WPC 7 day loop

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

ESRL  look in

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f168_us.html

 

 

PAC feed into the U.S.--- looks good  from this far out

-I like this system - from today's data sets

 

 small -snow weenie party- for someone in our group ???

 

 

 

Loop of the PAC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/flash-wv.html

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The GFS will trend back towards the Euro solution in the next day or so -GFS did the same nonsense with the storm a couple weeks ago - this is increasingly looking like a storm that will pass east of the metro - the exact track and intensity will determine precip type for select locations in the metro - the March 19 - 21, 1958 storm got down to 29.33 in the metro area and the 12Z Euro is showing strengthening storm coming up the coast with pressures close to the 1958 storm or lower

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1958/3/21/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

The 1958 storm was nowhere close to what was being modeled. Not even in the ballpark. Look at how intense that storm was along with, and more importantly where the mid and high level lows closed off back then, the surface is the least important overall and even that isn't the same. That was a dynamically cooled, uvv driven storm that was so intense it "created" its own cold air with the prolific lifting and the thread the needle perfectly positioned closed low centers aloft. This modeled storm, if it even comes to fruition is not close to that extreme luck setup
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