snowman19 Posted March 14, 2016 Author Share Posted March 14, 2016 Euro crushes the interior with next weekends storm Nw nj and Pa That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA Yes but we have seen snow near the coast before in March . Climo suggests inland but it has happened near the coast if we get a perfect bombing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA If you remember even NYC and the coast had a snowstorm on March 21 last year. Obviously everything has to come together perfectly for the coast to get a snowstorm in late march, but it CAN happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA Yeah for the metro you want this to bomb and close off se of our area. The faster it can do that the faster it can drag the Cold closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yeah for the metro you want this to bomb and close off se of our area. The faster it can do that the faster it can drag the Cold closer to the coastHopefully that is what happens with that "-NAO" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 AO is also negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 We finally got the first neutral/negative NAO since the January blizzard. Root that 50/50 on so the storm gets forced to our SE instead of hugging the coast. Not sure about the Euro yet since this is the first major forecast event since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Euro has 18"+ for MMU , not necessarily Sussex northwest. If you are 20-25 miles give or take from the coast, the greater the chances of snow imo. Also take into effect the kind of track the storm will/would take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 We finally got the first neutral/negative NAO since the January blizzard. Root that 50/50 on so the storm gets forced to our SE instead of hugging the coast. Not sure about the Euro yet since this is the first major forecast event since the upgrade. nao.sprd2.gif Some of us would prefer a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Euro has 18"+ for MMU , not necessarily Sussex northwest. If you are 20-25 miles give or take from the coast, the greater the chances of snow imo. Also take into effect the kind of track the storm will/would take. It's elevation based. MMU is close to where the higher elevations of NW NJ begin. Where I live in the valley it's probably an inch or two of slop and up in West Milford twenty miles away a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 It's elevation based. MMU is close to where the higher elevations of NW NJ begin. Where I live in the valley it's probably an inch or two of slop and up in West Milford twenty miles away a blizzard. Yes, I understand that, my point was that this isn't mainly for the 1000'-2000' ft club (altough who knows) and can easily become a major snowstorm even for parts of central Morris. Hope the NW guys get crushed this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yes, I understand that, my point was that this isn't mainly for the 1000'-2000' ft club (altough who knows) and can easily become a major snowstorm even for parts of central Morris. Hope the NW guys get crushed this time around. I could see the whole area getting crushed if this closes off in the right spot but that's a big if, the flow is fairly progressive overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 The Euro closes off at H5 in Upstate NY. For everyone to get snow you want that to be South of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Some of us would prefer a coastal hugger. The funny part of this season is that none of these heavy snow events that were modeled for the interior panned out. Storms either came NW and had rain for areas just NW of NYC and along the coast or the coast got the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 The funny part of this season is that none of these heavy snow events that were modeled for the interior panned out. Storms either came NW and had rain for areas just NW of NYC and along the coast or the coast got the heaviest snow. Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the ***** I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area. 12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the ***** I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area. 12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain. Further east than 0z and similiar to op. Good news if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Thanks for the friendly reminder and the kick in the ***** I suspect that this will end up mostly rain for 99% of the area. 12z EPS mean tracks from just off the NJ coast to over E LI and up into SNE. It's not a terrible look, especially if you're rooting for rain. Not if the graphs are right with the negative A0 EPO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Further east than 0z and similiar to op. Good news if you want snow. You're going to get rain, and you're going to like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Not if the graphs are right with the negative A0 EPO and NAO. The teleconnections are just favorable enough to get a coastal hugger, otherwise it would be another cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 Yeah, most systems ended up coming further NW than what they were showing in the day 6-7 range this year. Would like to see at least one major system buck this pattern. The missed major storm a couple of weeks ago sort of ended up doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 12z JMA is an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 This is either a strict elevation event or everyone, including NYC will cash in. No in between, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 This is either a strict elevation event or everyone, including NYC will cash in. No in between, IMO. So ukie is off the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That's where you want to be if you want a chance for snow, interior and elevated, which is climo for the end of March. It's showing a big snow event from northwestern Sussex county on north and west into PA So explain why portions of the coastal metro received over a foot of snow during the March 19 -21, 1958 storm with borderline temps - check out the link below a good portion of the event temps were above freezing - the climo argument doesn't work all the time................ http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1958/3/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 This is either a strict elevation event or everyone, including NYC will cash in. No in between, IMO. What would you consider in between then? The higher elevations of NNJ and Rockland/Orange Counties would do great with the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 What would you consider in between then? The higher elevations of NNJ and Rockland/Orange Counties would do great with the Euro verbatim. In between meaning there is no way an area like MMU or EWR will see 6"+ and NYC 0". That's extremely rare, especially in the new snow climate we've been in for over 16 years now. It's either this will be a high elevation storm or we will all cash in, except maybe ocean areas and eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 In between meaning there is no way an area like MMU or EWR will see 6"+ and NYC 0". That's extremely rare, especially in the new snow climate we've been in for over 16 years now. It's either this will be a high elevation storm or we will all cash in, except maybe ocean areas and eastern LI. When has MMU ever gotten 6" while NYC got 0"? Maybe once in 25 years. I don't see the point in your prediction, unless it was purely an attempt to troll inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 When has MMU ever gotten 6" while NYC got 0"? Maybe once in 25 years. I don't see the point in your prediction, unless it was purely an attempt to troll inland folks. That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass The Yankees home opener is another back in 99 or 2000? I had 5-6 inches and the city had nothing because of it being a concrete jungle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2016 Share Posted March 14, 2016 That happens more than you think, in the March 92 event MMU saw 11-13 inches and most of the metro had 3-5 and mainly just on grass 3"-5" is a lot different then 0" and 1992 was a long time ago and before this crazy snow period we've been in for over 16yrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.