snowman19 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Since we are 10 days away from the start of March, post your March forecasts and disco here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I will go with exactly what the analogs are showing since they have been right for 9 months with the above normal theme. Here's hoping they are wrong. Above Normal Temps Below Normal Precip. The next several months look the same way, I have not seen a below normal temperature month predicted yet. CANSIPS goes into the fall before moving us toward below normal I think. (Not correct, no blue in NA -except this month, right through to Jan 2017) An accident is always possible for a 2-3 day period which may be out of character for the month at hand. Two of these sneak attacks have already happened this winter (more like hit and run-impaired driver accidents). Then right back to the old 'motif', which should hold till El Nino is declared defunct in the fall, apparently. I think the last 10 day period (RECENT DISTORTION NOT WITHSTANDING) with a bn avg. temp. was in June or October, let alone an entire month. Feb. looks close to normal by the end, but feels warm anyway. Only 20 of the last 90 days have been below normal as we merrily cruise at a +6deg. for that period which basically aligns with the meteorological winter. The next 7 days won't help much, maybe the last 5 will keep us from the warmest winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Weeklies have a good pattern through late march. Develops a negative nao from week 2 onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Weeklie have a good pattern through late February. Develops a negative nao from week 2 onward I thought this topic is for March and beyond. btw Which weeklies do you refer to, I only have the CFSv2. They are OK briefly I suppose, but above normal 500mb heights are always over us or very near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I will go with exactly what the analogs are showing since they have been right for 9 months with the above normal theme. Here's hoping they are wrong. Above Normal Temps Below Normal Precip. The next several months look the same way, I have not seen a below normal temperature month predicted yet. CANSIPS goes into the fall before moving us toward below normal I think. (Not correct, no blue in NA -except this month, right through to Jan 2017) An accident is always possible for a 2-3 day period which may be out of character for the month at hand. Two of these sneak attacks have already happened this winter (more like hit and run-impaired driver accidents). Then right back to the old 'motif', which should hold till El Nino is declared defunct in the fall, apparently. I think the last 10 day period (RECENT DISTORTION NOT WITHSTANDING) with a bn avg. temp. was in June or October, let alone an entire month. Feb. looks close to normal by the end, but feels warm anyway. Only 20 of the last 90 days have been below normal as we merrily cruise at a +6deg. for that period which basically aligns with the meteorological winter. The next 7 days won't help much, maybe the last 5 will keep us from the warmest winter ever. Most months over the last few years have been above the 1981-2010 averages. We should look at averages for the past 20 years for a true picture of today climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 winterwarlock, on 18 Feb 2016 - 9:44 PM, said:Hoping for a quick warm up ala a few years back when we were in the 70s by mid March Specifically NOT hoping for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I thought this topic is for March and beyond. btw Which weeklies do you refer to, I only have the CFSv2. They are OK briefly I suppose, but above normal 500mb heights are always over us or very near. I meant to say late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I will go with exactly what the analogs are showing since they have been right for 9 months with the above normal theme. Here's hoping they are wrong. Above Normal Temps Below Normal Precip. The next several months look the same way, I have not seen a below normal temperature month predicted yet. CANSIPS goes into the fall before moving us toward below normal I think. (Not correct, no blue in NA -except this month, right through to Jan 2017) An accident is always possible for a 2-3 day period which may be out of character for the month at hand. Two of these sneak attacks have already happened this winter (more like hit and run-impaired driver accidents). Then right back to the old 'motif', which should hold till El Nino is declared defunct in the fall, apparently. I think the last 10 day period (RECENT DISTORTION NOT WITHSTANDING) with a bn avg. temp. was in June or October, let alone an entire month. Feb. looks close to normal by the end, but feels warm anyway. Only 20 of the last 90 days have been below normal as we merrily cruise at a +6deg. for that period which basically aligns with the meteorological winter. The next 7 days won't help much, maybe the last 5 will keep us from the warmest winter ever. KNYC FEB -.02 so far . Which is N . Looks to finish colder than this based on what`s forecast the rest of the way . I think you were +4 for FEB ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Say hello to a -AO for the first half of March. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What were the AO values during the March 1993 Super storm? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 What were the AO values during the March 1993 Super storm? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk 3/12/1993 +1.020 3/13/1993 +1.654 3/14/1993 +1.283 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 3/12/1993 +1.020 3/13/1993 +1.654 3/14/1993 +1.283 That month as a whole was a rollercoaster with the AO index. Starting neg and finishing neg with the pos spike around mid month. 1993 3 1 -1.246 1993 3 2 -2.288 1993 3 3 -1.877 1993 3 4 -0.820 1993 3 5 0.072 1993 3 6 0.146 1993 3 7 0.154 1993 3 8 0.070 1993 3 9 0.306 1993 3 10 0.533 1993 3 11 0.679 1993 3 12 1.020 1993 3 13 1.654 1993 3 14 1.283 1993 3 15 1.838 1993 3 16 3.779 1993 3 17 3.984 1993 3 18 3.360 1993 3 19 3.379 1993 3 20 2.990 1993 3 21 2.678 1993 3 22 2.355 1993 3 23 2.058 1993 3 24 1.621 1993 3 25 1.224 1993 3 26 0.606 1993 3 27 -0.187 1993 3 28 -0.957 1993 3 29 -1.544 1993 3 30 -1.834 1993 3 31 -2.186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 AO still looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I don't think we have seen the last of the snowfalls this season...The AO is forecast to go negative before March starts...if it stays negative for the first part of March it should stay seasonably cold or cold enough for snow if you get a good storm track...I was forecasting a colder February on average than January...January came in at 34.5 degrees while February is just under that mark after today...here were the analogs for March I liked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 March may come in like a lion. GFS shows a suppressed solution but CMC shows a MECS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro has the storm also about 3-6. More importantly it goes crazy with blocking and -nao for the first week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro has the storm also about 3-6. More importantly it goes crazy with blocking and -nao for the first week of March I'm not buying into all this -NAO talk again. Won't believe it till its already here. We've been fooled too many times this winter when the blocking signal shows up LR only to disappear as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'm not buying into all this -NAO talk again. Won't believe it till its already here. We've been fooled too many times this winter when the blocking signal shows up LR only to disappear as we get closer in. Difference is, this in only a week away. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Difference is, this in only a week away. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I wouldn't get your hopes up. Always follow the trends. Just like this weeks storm trending west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I wouldn't get your hopes up. Always follow the trends. Just like this weeks storm trending westI never get my hopes up. It saves me from getting burned in the end.Addition: I'm just more likely to give this credence because we're much closer. Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I wouldn't get your hopes up. Always follow the trends. Just like this weeks storm trending west Different pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The Euro gives us a shot at some 70's for the middle of next week. Monster cutter to International Falls. That's how you know Winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The Euro gives us a shot at some 70's for the middle of next week. Monster cutter to International Falls. That's how you know Winter is over. 5 cutters since 2/15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 5 cutters since 2/15... Only one has produced significant rainfall so far, and that was in a relatively localized band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Eps still has that amazing looking ridge for warmth! Def 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 Eps still has that amazing looking ridge for warmth! Def 70+The extreme warmth on the EPS, as depicted, would rival March of 2012. It is showing one hell of a blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro was showing 80+ On yesterday's run., #torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can't see how March doesn't finish at least a +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looking forward to a very warm and dry spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The models look like somebody in the Philly to NYC corridor could reach 70 or higher with the big ridge amplification being advertised for the second week of March. All the warmth in the forecast will break the string of cold Marches in NYC since 2013. Just a continuation of the warm pattern which began last April. 3/13...-2.4 3/14...-4.8 3/15...-4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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